Before you get any further into this article, please take a second to appreciate John Collins heaping Joel Embiid levels of posterization on Jarrett Allen...again.
Excited yet?
There is little question the 2021-22 Atlanta Hawks will have a VERY good basketball team -- one for Hawks fans to be legitimately excited about. But HOW excited? This team appears a lock to make the playoffs, but can they take the next step into championship contention? That’s the $1 million question.
The Roster
The Hawks quietly put together one of the best offseasons in the league by adding exceptional depth at the wing, backup PG, AND center with few people in NBA circles taking notice. Atlanta’s core remains unchanged and yet it FEELS like the Hawks made significant upgrades with the healthy returns of Cam Reddish and De'Andre Hunter as well as re-signing Lou Williams and adding Gorgui Dieng and Delon Wright to the bench.
They also locked up Trae Young, John Collins, Clint Capela, and Kevin Huerter to long-term deals and added one of the steals of the draft in versatile Duke forward Jaylen Johnson and arguably the draft’s best passer in Auburn PG Sharife Cooper. In essence, they added in-house replacements for Cam Reddish and Lou Williams once their contracts expire, setting them up to maintain their exceptional depth with cheaper contracts as the roster approaches the luxuruy-tax threshold in the next two years.
It will be interesting to see how the Hawks move forward with Cam Reddish as Huerter’s significant defensive improvement makes Reddish more-or-less expendable long-term. Huerter is a superior shooter and playmaker, and his defensive improvement along with the addition of another defensive-minded wing in Johnson makes it much less likely the Hawks pay big money for Reddish to be the fourth or fifth wing on their roster.
Why the Hawks Could Be VERY Good
If all goes well, the Hawks will almost certainly improve on last year’s fifth place finish and have home court advantage in the playoffs for the first time since 2016. Most preseason projections have the Hawks around 47 wins, with Caesar’s sportsbook landing at 47.5, ESPN at 47, and FiveThirtyEight a bit higher at 51. Considering the superb depth and shooting of this team, a 50-win season is very much within reach. Assuming a healthy Trae Young, here’s what would need to transpire to make that happen:
1. The offense is elite. The Hawks entered last season projected to have a top-five offense but never realized that potential due primarily to a slough of serious injuries. The post All-Star break Hawks had the eighth-highest rated offense, the third fewest turnovers, and shot 38% from three (No.5 in the NBA) on their way to the best record in the NBA after April 1. The healthy return of Bogdan Bogdanovic and the addition of Lou Williams had much to do with that, and the Hawks will now add De’Andre Hunter, Delon Wright, and Cam Reddish to the rotation -- a massive upgrade over reliable but limited journeymen like Solomon Hill and Tony Snell.
The Hawks may not have the firepower of the Brooklyn Nets but Wright, Dieng, Williams, Huerter, Gallinari, Bogdanovic, and Collins ALL shot 37% or better from three last season. That means three-fourths of your projected rotation shoot the three-ball at better than league average. That kind of shooting depth along with Trae Young’s elite playmaking could result in Atlanta quietly becoming one of the most potent offenses in the NBA.
2. De’Andre Hunter returns to form. It’s been well-documented at this point, but Hunter looked like a legitimate Most Improved Player candidate at the start of last season. In the 18 games prior to his knee injury Hunter averaged 17.1 PPG on 51% from the field, 36.6% from three and 87.7% from the line. His efficiency jumped, his shot creation improved dramatically (particularly in the mid range), and he looked much closer to the defensive stopper people expected as the No.4 pick out of Virginia.
While many will continue to float ridiculous Kawhi Leonard comparisons as his ceiling, a more realistic comp is a different All-Star wing who just won an NBA championship -- Khris Middleton of the Milwaukee Bucks. Their size, defensive impact, midrange shot creation, and even streakiness are all eerily similar. Atlanta has been reluctant to trade any of their young core in pursuit of a splashy veteran star, in part because they have good reason to believe a second star may be on the rise in their very own building. If Hunter is healthy, don’t be shocked to see a 2020 Jaylen Brown-esque leap into fringe All-Star territory as he provides the Hawks with the second reliable scorer essential for any championship contender.
3. Atlanta’s good defenders stay healthy. Remember when Kevin Huerter shocked people by being really good on defense in the playoffs? (If you don’t believe me, here’s three minutes of it against the 76ers.)
Anyone that regularly watches the Hawks knows Huerter has transformed from a huge liability into an above average wing stopper with sneaky athleticism. NOW he can be deployed as the third or fourth-best perimeter defender with Cam Reddish and D’Andre Hunter returning from injury ravaged seasons. Once Onyeka Okungwu returns, the Hawks could trot out a rather salty second unit with Wright & Huerter in the backcourt, Reddish & Johnson (or Solomon Hill) in the frontcourt, and Okungwu patrolling the middle. That’s about as balanced a bench unit as you’ll find, but if Reddish, Hunter, or Huerter go down you’re locked into bench units with Williams and/or Gallinari on the floor. That’s far from a disaster, but the Hawks need their full complement of healthy wings in order to offset the shortcomings of the offense-only players on their roster.
Why the Hawks Could Be “Just Good”
A winning record or a playoff berth is no longer the goal for the Hawks. Anything less than a top-four seed will feel like a disappointment, and if the win total ends up in the 42-45 range, it will like stem from one of these factors:
Trae Young gets hurt. Is there even any explanation needed?
The depth at center gets exposed early on. The Okungwu injury put the Hawks in dire straits to start the year, necessitating the signing of Gorgui Dieng as the de facto backup. If Okungwu is slow to mend and/or Dieng or Capela gets hurt, the center situation reaches critical mass. The Hawks could paper over it by using Collins or Gallinari at the five or (gulp) giving minutes to Bruno Fernando, but there is no viable scenario in which the Hawks reach their ceiling without both Okungwu and Capela on the floor.
The depth of the East is greatly improved. With Chicago, Miami, and New York looking much improved, the Net back healthy (sort of), and the defending champions retaining most of their key pieces, the Eastern conference is suddenly full of landmines. There just aren’t a lot of easy wins. Teams like Charlotte, Washington, and Cleveland have young cores they like and the only teams truly rebuilding are Orlando and Toronto. The East has significantly more depth than in years past and that alone may be enough to keep Atlanta’s win total down. This even seems to be reflected in the Vegas win totals with the most generous projections putting the Eastern Conference champion (universally the Bucks or Nets) at 57-58 wins.
Season Predictions
Barring ANOTHER rash of major injuries, it’s difficult to see any scenario in which the Hawks are NOT an elite offense that shows significant improvement in the win column. Overall, the Title Run projection for the 2020-21 seasons lands at 49 wins and landing the No.4 seed.
Here are statistical projections for the top eight players in the Hawks rotation.
Trae Young - 25.2 points /10.8 Assists / 44% FG / 38% 3-pt
John Collins - 17.3 points/8.9 rebounds/55% FG/ 38% 3-pt
Bogdan Bogdanovic - 16.4 points / 4.1 Assists / 45% FG / 39% 3-pt
Danilo Gallinari - 15.1 points /5 rebounds / 44% FG/ 41% 3-pt
De’Andre Hunter - 17.7 points/ 46% FG/ 37% 3-pt
Clint Capela - 15.3 points /13 rebounds / 63% FG
Kevin Huerter - 13.2 points/3.5 Assists/ 44% FG/ 40.3% 3-pt
Cam Reddish Stat Line - 12.1 points/ 40% FG/ 36% 3-pt
Let's Go Hawks!
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