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The 2019-2020 season was a rough year for the Atlanta Hawks.
Thursday the NBA Board of Governors approved a return-to-play plan that officially ended the Hawks season at 67 games. That record encapsulates a disappointing season filled with some ups, a lot of downs, and even more “what ifs?”
The Hawks entered the season with a Vegas projection of 34 wins, looking to build on their 29-win campaign from the previous year and possibly hang around the fringes of the playoff conversation. That was quickly derailed by a 25-game suspension to John Collins, an injury-plagued start from Kevin Heurter, and two months of absolutely WRETCHED basketball from rookie Cam Reddish. The team rallied to put together a promising .500 stretch from late January to early March, led by absolutely phenomenal play from Trae Young and John Collins, and a promising second-half surge by Reddish. That stretch plus a midseason roster overhaul gave Hawks fans reason for optimism in the midst of frustrating up-and-down season. Here's a look at the good, the bad, and the ugly from the 2019-20 season.
By the Numbers
By every objective measure, the Hawks were a bad basketball team this season. Their 20-47 record was good for fourth worst in the league. A look at their statistical rankings confirms what fans saw on a nightly basis; the Hawks played horrible defense, didn’t value the basketball, and struggled to hit outside shots. Here’s a look at Hawks season by the numbers:
What Went Wrong?
The Roster Construction - The Hawks entered the season with clear, GAPING (in hindsight) holes at backup point guard and backup center. The plan to have Evan Turner and his horrible contract serve as back-up point guard to Trae Young always seemed iffy, but turned into a flaming disaster when various injuries limited Turner to just 19 games. He averaged just 3.3 points in 13.2 minutes and had a career-worst shooting year (37% FG and 0% from three); a career-worst year for a player already considered a terrible shooter. The Turner debacle left Kevin Huerter and DeAndre Bembry serving as defacto back-up point guards until the Hawks solidified the position by bringing up Brandon Goodwin up from the G-League, trading Turner, and acquiring former Timberwolves PG Jeff Teague.
The void at back-up point guard was matched solely by the disaster that was the center position. There was good reason to believe that Alex Len could build on his career year in 2018-19 and provide starting-quality center play, but Len was WRETCHED out of the gate completely losing his three-point touch and eventually getting benched for Damian Jones. Jones graded out as one of the three worst defensive centers in the league according to ESPN’s Real Plus/Minus and provided little on the offensive end besides his ability to catch and finish lobs. (Remind me again why did we traded Omari Spellman?) Rookie Bruno Fernando was better than Jones on the defensive end but still struggled with certain reads and rotations and seemed to live in perpetual foul trouble. The end result was a center rotation that was arguably the worst in the NBA.
Even more frustrating for many fans is the fact that many saw this coming. If you turned your head and squinted really hard you could see a world in which things COULD work out, but the preseason roster had clear gaps and ill-fitting pieces. For example, a second line with Bembry and Turner has ZERO backcourt shooting, and Damian Jones and Jabari Parker were sure to be a terrible defensive pairing in second-unit front court (though Parker was excellent on offense this year). The blame for the poor roster construction lies squarely at the feet of Hawks GM Travis Schlenk who had to work FOUR separate trades to re-vamp the Hawks bench into a unit capable of playing a competent NBA basketball.
The Collins Suspension - The Hawks went 4-21 in the absence of John Collins, winning at an abysmal 16% clip. By comparison, the team won 38% of all other games, going 16-26. Needless to say, the Hawks struggled mightily without Collins in the line-up. The suspension devastated an already offensively-challenged front line, thrusting Jabari Parker into the starting lineup (where he played well), but also pushing 42-year old Vince Carter and rookie Bruno Fernando into heavy rotational duty. That combined with Alex Len’s slow start created some of the worst frontcourt play in the league, and even the virtuoso offense of Trae Young couldn’t carry the team to a competitive record.
The Defense - The Hawks allowed the most points in the NBA and rated No. 28 in defensive efficiency (points allowed per 100 possessions).The Hawks rated 114.4 while the league average hovered around 109. While much is made of Trae Young’s defense (and yes...it’s BAD), a number of other factors contributed. The Hawks committed the most fouls in the NBA, the third most turnovers in the NBA, and finished No. 27 in rebounding rate. In short, they allowed a ton of extra possessions, a ton of free throws, and struggled to rebound the ball when they did play solid defense.
As for Trae Young, he rated as one of the three worst defenders in the entire league in real plus/minus, and the Hawks defensive rating dropped from 114.4 to 116.1 with Trae on the floor. Again...very bad. While Trae showed marginal improvement in his defensive activity and his ability to stay in front of ball handlers, he struggles to navigate screens and gets destroyed in switches due to his size, making him extremely hard to scheme around. When Trae played alongside Damian Jones things went from bad to unmanageable. The Hawks had an astronomical defensive rating of 121 with those two on the floor together and a rating of 117.3 any time Jones took the floor period. That means they actually played WORST defense with Jones on the floor than with Young. That’s not to mention the 116.1 rating when Jabari Parker played and remember -- these three started together at one point. Of course, there is additional context to these numbers (opponent, game situation, other players on the floor, etc.) but it still paints a clear picture that Atlanta’s subpar defense largely stems from having subpar defensive personnel across the board.
What Went Right?
Trae Young’s Ascent - Trae Young put together one of best sophomore years of any guard in NBA history, earning him starting honors in the 2020 All-Star game. Young ranked fifth in the NBA in offensive real plus/minus (4.22) behind James Harden, Giannis Antetokoumpo, LeBron James, Steph Curry -- three former MVPs and the reigning MVP. He landed one spot ahead of Luka Doncic, who also put together one of the elite sophomore years of all-time history.
* Wilt Chamberlain was not included due to drastic difference in pace/minutes during his era
Young currently stands fourth in the NBA in scoring and second in assists, and that assist total comes on the team with the worst three-point shooting in the league. A rise to even league-average shooting could see Young’s assist total skyrocket to uber-elite levels. With Young on the floor Atlanta posted a 111.2 offensive rating which PLUMMETED when he sat. Young was objectively one of the five most impactful offensive players in the NBA this past season, giving the Hawks an elite offensive engine to build around moving forward.
The question is whether the Hawks can construct a roster that masks his severe defensive limitations while still providing enough shooting to take advantage of his preternatural playmaking. That challenge is not unique to Atlanta. Few championship teams historically have built around a point guard as their best player, and those that have like the “Bad Boy” Pistons and Golden State did so with MULTIPLE elite defenders on their roster. This is the blessing and curse of the Trae Young era of Hawks basketball.
The Growth of John Collins- John Collins put together a monster year that leaves fans wondering what could've been had he not missed 25-games due to suspension for violating the league drugs policy. Collins tallied 22 double-doubles in his 41 games to go along with
the best true shooting percentage of any 20-point scorer since Steph Curry's ridiculous 2015-16 MVP season. Collins shot 58% from the field, a team-high 40% from the three-point line, and 80% from the foul line. His efficiency from all areas of the court somewhat dispels the myth of his exclusive reliance on Trae Young, a narrative voiced by some who view him as little more than a high-end lob target.
Collins also improved tremendously on the defensive end, doubling his steal rate (0.4 to 0.8), nearly tripling his block rate (0.6 to 1.6), ranking twelfth in the league in contested shots, and ranking sixteenth among all power forwards in defensive plus/minus at 0.80. The bottom line is that Collins is rapidly ascending into the ranks of the league's top power forwards and the Hawks will have to decide how much they're willing to invest to keep him.
Here’s a quick look at how Collins stacks up against other top-notch bigs. All-Stars are shown with an asterisk. (Salary numbers for Collins are based on pre-COVID-19 cap projections)
Collins has already voiced his desire for a max contract, and while the Hawks may be hesitant to pull the trigger, an argument can certainly be made based on his production. Three questions to consider -- first, can Collins develop into the second best player on a championship contender? Second, if Collins' leaves how easily can you replace his mixture of offensive versatility, improving defensive production, and chemistry with Trae Young? Third, how will Collins fit alongside newly acquired center Clint Capela? No matter what happens this offseason, the rise of John Collins is a great "problem" to have as the Hawks continue to build for the future.
Cam Reddish’s Second Half - It’s difficult to overstate just how bad rookie Cam Reddish played during the first few months of the season. While De'Andre Hunter had a steady, but unspectacular rookie season, Reddish's offensive production resembled an EKG early in the season. He shot 5.6% from three during October (not a typo) and 21% from the field (also not a typo). From October through December Reddish made just 26% of his three-pointers, 32% of his field goals, and averaged more turnovers than assists. He was statistically one of the worst offensive players in basketball. Fortunately, he recovered.
Reddish appeared to make some in-season tweaks to his jumper and from January through the end of the season shot 44.5% from the field, 39.7% from three, and averaged 13 ppg. While Reddish’s “real” shooting ability probably lies somewhere between those statistical benchmarks (he’s not likely to shoot 50% from three like he did in March), his improved spot-up shooting allowed his offense to compliment the flashes of elite defensive potential he displayed throughout the season.
The defensive metrics don’t match the eye test when it comes to Reddish. Rookies are generally bad on defense since NBA defensive schemes require more thinking and faster rotations, and NBA teams have superior shooting. Reddish’s defensive plus-minus rated lower than players such as Lou Williams and Marco Bellinelli despite the fact he led the team in deflections, finished second in steals, and third in blocks. While Reddish rated as a below-average impact defender (-0.72 Defensive RPM), the eye test showed Reddish as an already capable on-ball defender who flashed the instincts and activity of a future All-League stopper. If the shooting improvement is real, Reddish looks like a perfect long-term compliment to Trae Young.
In Season Trades
After an absolutely putrid 8-32 start, the Hawks finished the season going 12-15 in their last 27 games, aided greatly by a series of shrewd midseason acquisitions. The first of those moves brought veteran point guard Jeff Teague and wing Treveon Graham over Minnesota. Teague playing in 25 of the last 27 games, providing an immediate and colossal upgrade to Atlanta's second unit, lifting the offensive rating to a respectable 108.0 when he took the floor in place of Trae Young.
Dewayne Dedmon also rejoined the Hawks right before February's trade deadline, providing an immediate upgrade at the center position. The veteran big man played like absolute trash in Sacramento, shooting just 19% on threes and eventually playing himself completely out of the Kings rotation. His contract provides pretty poor value for a backup center, but it's only guaranteed through 2021 meaning the Hawks can get out of it after next season. While Dedmon still struggled with his shot in Atlanta (just 22% from three), his intangibles can't be overstated as he is known to be a great communicator on defense and a strong (and popular) locker room presence, filling two DESPERATE needs for the Hawks.
In Clint Capela the Hawks added their center of the immediate future. Capela is a good-but-not-great interior defender and an elite rebounder. Prior to his injury and Houston's move to small ball, Capela had eight-straight games with 19+ rebounds. He's very efficient on offense, but the bulk of his scoring comes from lobs and put backs. He's best as a roll man in pick-and-roll man making him a less-than-perfect fit alongside the similar skill set of John Collins. That said, he could make a fit great in lineups with DeAndre Hunter playing as a stretch four. Capela's contract provides better-than-average value, and the team has him under control for three more seasons (age 28).
Skal Labissierre is yet another young, cheap big that provides solid rebounding and an old school offensive game. He's not a super-athlete or a lob threat, but he uses drop steps and hook shots to score in the low post & has a good mid-range jumper. He has yet to carve out a clear role in the NBA, and it's unclear how the Hawks intend to use him, but he has more offensive upside than Fernando and Jones combined. Labissierre will likely battle Fernando for minutes as the Hawks fourth big and brings a different, intriguing offensive skill set with his former first round pedigree.
It took just one week for Travis Schlenk to turn the worst center rotation in the NBA into arguably one of the deepest -- a thought both encouraging and maddening for Hawks fans. In doing so he essentially cleaned up a mess of his own creation, and the team clearly benefited from the infusion of veteran talent, while also maintaining draft capital and financial flexibility for the future. The last two months left fans entertained and encouraged, but it begs the question -- why weren't these massive hole plugged during the offseason??
Tip-Ins
A few additional thoughts about the 2019-20 season:
Kevin Huerter’s development flew under the radar. Huerter improved his rebounding, assist rate, and free throw rate while increasing his usage and maintaining his three-point shooting efficiency (38%) on increased attempts (4.7 to 6.0). Huerter can still improve on the defensive end and must be more willing to attack the basket, but his steady growth was largely overshadowed by the stellar play of Trae Young and John Collins.
De’Andre Hunter has more offensive game than expected. The No.4 pick in the draft averaged 12.3 ppg as a rookie while shooting 35.5% (around league average) on nearly five attempts a game. While he didn’t quite live up to his billing as an instant impact defender, his surprisingly adept shooting touch seems to indicate his offensive ceiling may be higher than initially expected.
What to do with DeAndre' Bembry? Bembry brings high energy, excellent defense, and plus finishing along also spotty shooting and a long injury history. Bembry has averaged just 47 games a year, missing 24 this past season, and his three-point shooting has dropped each of the past three years from 36.7%, to 28.9%, to 23.1%. Is Bembry worth a $3.7 million qualifying offer to keep a reliable defensive wing behind Huerter, Reddish, and Hunter?
Happy Trails Vince Carter!! Carter concludes the longest career (22 seasons) in NBA history, becoming the first player to play in four decades and concluding his career at No.19 on the All-Time Scoring list (25, 728 points).
Finally, here a quick look at our preseason statistical projections for the Hawks.
Trae Young: 21.3 points/9.3 Assists/44.2% FG/ 36.7% 3-pt
John Collins: 20.1 points/10.1 rebounds/54.3% FG/ 34.9% 3-pt
Kevin Huerter: 14.9 points/4.2 Assists/ 46.3% FG/ 40.3% 3-pt
Hawks Record: 34 -48 (41.4%)
What Will we Remember About the 2019-20 Season?
The legacy of the 2019-20 NBA season will always be the COVID-19 outbreak that stopped the league for four months. But what will fans remember about the Hawks season?
The overwhelming narrative centers around the ascension of Trae Young, the devastating effects of the John Collins suspension, and reshaping of the roster during the second half. While most fans didn’t expect the team to compete for the playoffs, no one (including the Hawks front office) expected the team to regress to the very bottom tier of the league. While the improved lottery odds could help add yet another blue chip talent, it won’t help in attracting the kind of veteran star power a young team needs to get over the hump. Youth doesn’t win in the NBA. Instead of the Hawks building on their 29-win season to show they are knocking on the door of playoff contention, they fielded an ill-constructed roster that exposed their desperate need for veteran talent and leadership.
All in all, the 2019-20 can be described as a disappointing up-and-down campaign that frustrated fans, but did leave reasonable hope for better things moving forward.