This is it -- the only Atlanta Hawks preview you need. The Hawks enter year two of their all-out rebuild looking to build on a surprising 29-win campaign highlighted by the second half emergence of point guard Trae Young. With the well-documented addition of lottery picks De'Andre Hunter and Cam Reddish and MULTIPLE trades, here's a quick look at the revamped roster surrounding Young and fellow young star John Collins.
The Roster
The Hawks signed PG Brandon Goodwin and wingman Charlie Brown to two-way deals, meaning they will split time between the main roster and the G-League affiliate the College Park Skyhawks. Brown is a 6' 7" wing with nice shooting stroke and shaky defense, and he isn’t likely to get much run on a main roster LOADED with wing players, but Goodwin could occasionally see rotational minutes as the third point guard.
Barring injury or a major surprise, the Hawks starting five will look like this:
Center - Alex Len
Power Forward - John Collins
Small Forward - De’Andre Hunter
Shooting Guard - Kevin Heurter
Point Guard - Trae Young
The Hawks probable second unit to start the season:
Center - Damian Jones
Power Forward - Jabari Parker
Small Forward - Vince Carter/Cam Reddish
Shooting Guard - DeAndre Bembry
Point Guard - Evan Turner
Expect Allen Crabbe to factor in at shooting guard once he returns from injury and for Bruno Fernando to pick up some minutes at the five. In fact, don’t be shocked if Fernando eventually takes Jones’ minutes at center. The Hawks second unit was woeful on offense in the preseason, and Fernando and Crabbe provide more versatile scoring options than Jones and Title Run favorite DeAndre’ Bembry. A lineup with Bembry, Turner, and Reddish would be hellish on the defensive end of the floor, but unwatchable on offense. Bembry and Turner are both non-shooters, and Reddish has struggled with turnovers, streaky shooting, and AWFUL finishing in his freshman year at Duke and his first five preseason games as a pro.
The quality depth at the wing positions means this roster could be one of the most flexible in recent memory. The Hawks could easily slide John Collins over to the five for small ball lineups, allowing him to play with De’Andre Hunter or Jabari Parker at the four (though teaming him with Parker could be disastrous on defense). They could also move Bembry to the point on the second unit and pair him with Allen Crabbe to provide more shooting. There are a number of intriguing configurations for this lineup with a good mix of floor spacing bench players like Crabbe, Parsons, and Carter (plus a pure scorer in Jabari Parker) to mix with good defensive players like Hunter and Bembry and the promising defense of Reddish and Fernando.
Four Things We Learned from the Preseason
It's never wise to try extrapolate too much from preseason basketball, but here are four takeaways that should be applicable for the 2019-20 season.
1. Trae Young is the team’s most valuable player...by A LOT. The Hawks looked absolutely DREADFUL on offense when Young left the floor in the preseason. Nothing illustrated this better than the 33-point loss to the Miami Heat in which Young had a plus-minus of zero. That means the Hawks played even basketball when he was on the floor
and got outscored by 33 points when he sat. That’s not a typo. Plus-minus isn’t a perfect stat, but the wide disparity bears out what was clear in multiple preseason games -- Young appears to be an elite offensive engine and is the single most indispensable player on the Hawks roster.
2. The Hawks need help at point guard. The early looks at the reserve backcourt of Evan Turner and DeAndre Bembry don’t exactly inspire confidence. They make for a good defensive tandem (Bembry has been especially good on that end), but neither takes or makes outside shots (both shot under 30% last year) and both have struggled to take care of the basketball and/or initiate consistent offense on the second unit. Bembry, in particular, had two preseason games with a plus minus in double digits and four or more turnovers. Speaking of turnovers...
3. The Hawks still turn the ball over at an alarming rate. After committing a mind-boggling 56 turnovers in the first two games, the Hawks lowered that number to a slightly less dreadful 16 per game over the last three preseason contests. The most disturbing trend was the 23 turnovers committed by Trae Young in the first three games, although he regressed to the mean and committed just one in the last two games. The Hawks averaged 20.6 turnovers in the preseason which would blow away their league-worst mark of 16.6 from last season. The turnovers were a huge factor in all three of the team’s blowout losses, masking the fact that...
4. The Hawks appear to have improved on defense. Many factors contributed to the Hawks being one of the worst defensive teams in the league last year, but two huge issues were the number of extra possessions played to due to turnovers, and the Hawks inability to guard without fouling. The Hawks allowed more free throw attempts than any other team in the league and also committed the fifth-most personal fouls. The number of fouls and free throws attempts remained astronomical in the preseason, but while the numbers don’t necessarily bare out the Hawks improvement, the eyeball test does.
Cam Reddish showed great instincts as a disruptive team defender, DeAndre Bembry continues to play lockdown perimeter defense on opposing guards, and De’Andre Hunter appears to be every bit the defensive stopper he was advertised to be. That said, the biggest reason for optimism is the apparent growth John Collins and Trae Young have made at the defensive end. Collins has shown vast improvement on-the-ball by moving his feet well, challenging & blocking shots, and fouling significantly less (just seven fouls in 102 minutes). Trae Young has also showed a huge uptick in defensive intensity demonstrating the ability to stay in front of slashing guards, execute competent rotations, and provide disruptive help defense after rating as the worst starting point guard in the NBA defensively last year.
Why the Hawks Could Be Good
If the stars align, the Hawks could hover around .500 in a Eastern Conference that is very top-heavy. A best-case projection would be 41 wins. Here’s what would need to transpire to make that happen:
1. Collins and Young continue to ascend. If the Hawks’ two young stars play consistently at the borderline All-Star level they showed in stretches last year, this team could flirt with a .500 record.
2. The rookies mature ahead of schedule. De’Andre Hunter appears to be the real deal, so if the Hawks get any significant contributions from Cam Reddish and Bruno Fernando the team has a chance to outperform expectations.
3. The bench vets earn (some of) their money. See above and apply to Chandler Parsons, Allen Crabbe and their combined $43 million in contracts.
4. The defensive improvement is real. Will Young and Collins carry their renewed commitment on the defensive end into the regular season?
5. Alex Len is a competent starting center. Len was fairly brutal in the preseason with poor shooting, frustrating turnovers, so-so rebounding, and questionable shot selection. The Hawks need at least a Dewayne Dedmon-like level of production in order to reach their full potential this year.
Why the Hawks Could Be Bad
The TITLE RUN projection for the Hawks win floor is 28. While a regression isn’t likely considering the overall upgrade in talent, here are five things that could lead to the Hawks having a third-straight losing season:
Lack of point guard depth. The absence of a true backup point guard means any significant injury to Trae Young would absolutely torpedo the Hawks season. The Evan Turner experiment is already a bit of a gamble, so here’s hoping Turner works out and Young is able to play 80+ games for second year in a row.
The turnovers don’t improve. Another year leading the league in turnovers likely equals another year near the bottom of the Eastern conference standings.
Alex Len looks reverts to the Phoenix version of himself. Will the Hawks get the 2018-19 version of the big man or is the rocky preseason a sign of things to come?
The rookies play like rookies. Rookies are typically bad on defense and streaky on offense (e.g., Trae Young’s rookie season). It’s okay if the Hawks rookies are up-and-down, they just can’t be complete catastrophes. Train wreck seasons by Hunter and Reddish could set the Hawks back far past the 2019-20 season.
The second unit stinks. While the Hawks bench boasts a number of solid individual pieces, it remains to be seen how they will jell as a unit. The Turner/Bembry backcourt provides ZERO floor spacing while a lineup with any combination of competent scorers like Jabari Parker, Vince Carter, and Allen Crabbe is likely to get torched at the defensive end. The Hawks must find a second unit lineup that can balance scoring with competent defense.
Individual Projections
Here are TITLE RUN's 2018-19 preseason projections for Young and Collins:
Trae Young Stat Line - 12.6 points/7.2 Assists/43% FG/ 37.3% 3-pt
John Collins Stat Line - 18.8 points/8.7 rebounds/51.3% FG/ 36% 3-pt
Here are this year's preseason projections for Young, Collins, Heurter, and Len:
Trae Young - 21.3 points/9.3 Assists/44.2% FG/ 36.7% 3-pt
John Collins - 20.1 points/10.1 rebounds/54.3% FG/ 34.9% 3-pt
Kevin Huerter - 14.9 points/4.2 Assists/ 46.3% FG/ 40.3% 3-pt
Alex Len - 13.4 points/7.1 rebounds/49.8% FG/ 35.6% 3-pt
Also look for De'Andre Hunter to make First Team All-Rookie.
Season Projections
Last year, we here at TITLE RUN projected the Hawks for 29 wins...the exact number of games they actually won. The first Vegas projections following NBA Summer League placed the Hawks around 32 wins, but the final projections (via ESPN) are shown below.
Apparently the folks in Vegas and at ESPN are TITLE RUN fans, because in splitting the difference between our projected ceiling and floor, this year’s projection for the Hawks comes to precisely 34 wins. Take that to the bank.
Overall, the Hawks should be noticeably better on defense with the improvement of Young and Collins and the additions of Reddish and Hunter. That said, the offense could also take a step back after losing the reliable shooting of Taurean Prince and Dewayne Dedmon and the quality bench play of Kent Bazemore. The team's success will largely hinge on their improvement at the defensive end of the floor and Young's dynamic ability to direct coach Lloyd Pierce's uptempo offense. No matter the final record, the future is certainly bright in Atlanta.
Let's go Hawks!
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