The 2020-21 Hawks are the team Atlanta fans have been waiting for. Since the departures of Paul Millsap and Al Horford the Hawks have been in an all-out rebuild, and 2020 marks the year where Atlanta is finally expected to depart the dregs of the NBA cellar-dwellers. While Hawks fans would love to see the team return to championship contention like in 2014-15, a playoff berth marks the first step on the road to building a true title contender and the 2020-21 Hawks are a squad that should be capable of taking that first step.
This is a Hawks team Atlanta Hawks fans should be excited about.
So in prepping for this article, I looked back at last season's preview and was unpleasantly reminded of the extent to which Hawks GM Travis Schlenk crapped the bed building last year’s roster.
Last Year's Projected Starters:
Center - Alex Len
Power Forward - John Collins
Small Forward - De’Andre Hunter
Shooting Guard - Kevin Heurter
Point Guard - Trae Young
The Hawks probable second unit to start the season:
Center - Damian Jones
Power Forward - Jabari Parker
Small Forward - Vince Carter/Cam Reddish
Shooting Guard - DeAndre Bembry
Point Guard - Evan Turner
That roster is an abomination...the 20-47 record and the season statistics bore that out.
A lot of Hawks fans (like myself) recognized the gaping lineup holes prior to last season, but the poor team construction is further underscored when comparing that trainwreck of a roster with the talent-rich group the Hawks are trotting out this year.
A snapshot of the major additions are included below, and our detailed podcast on the Hawks offseason can be found on iTUNES or SPOTIFY or by simply mashing play on plugin above.
Here's a complete look at this year's roster:
Probably Starting Lineup:
Center - Clint Capela
Power Forward - John Collins
Small Forward - De’Andre Hunter/Cam Reddish
Shooting Guard - Bogdan Bogdanovic
Point Guard - Trae Young
The Hawks probable second unit to start the season:
Center - Onyeka Okungwu
Power Forward - Danilo Gallinari
Small Forward - De’Andre Hunter/Cam Reddish
Shooting Guard - Kevin Heurter
Point Guard - Rajon Rondo/Kris Dunn
The only spots of real intrigue for the Hawks are who will start at the wing with Bogdanic and how the Hawks will deploy the trio of Rondo/Huerter/Dunn in the second unit backcourt. Reddish was much more effective as a perimeter defender than Hunter last season, but Hunter provided more consistency and didn’t endure the prolonged slumps that marked the start of Reddish’s rookie year. Reddish clearly outplayed Hunter during the last third of the season, but it’s easy to see either as viable option in both starting AND closing lineups.
On the second unit, Huerter fits snugly alongside Rondo or Dunn (a slightly better fit Rondo because of his ball-handing and passing), while the thought of playing two non-shooters like Rondo and Dunn together seems untenable. This creates an interesting scramble for second unit minutes as each of the three brings a choice skill the Hawks need on the floor -- Rondo’s passing, Dunn’s defense, and Huerter’s shooting. It will be fascinating to see how they are deployed to create the most balanced possible lineups.
With an aging Rondo likely to miss at least one-half of most back-to-backs as well as additional games with the load management expected for a 34-year old, it will be interesting to see how the Hawks fill the role of second unit ball-handler when Rondo sits. In the preseason, coach Lloyd Pierce opted to play Huerter & Bogdanovic together with the sharpshooting duo sharing ball-handling responsibilities. This has worked surprisingly well in a small sample size, highlighted by a blitzkrieg of exceptional ball-movement and three-points makes in a big third quarter against Orlando in the second preseason game.
Why the Hawks Could Be Good
If all goes well, the Hawks WILL be a playoff team. Title Run’s best-case projection would land the Hawks around 42 wins -- roughly 47 wins over a full 82 game schedule. Again, that’s a best case projection and not the most likely outcome in a very deep Eastern conference. Assuming average team health, at least three things need to transpire for that to happen:
1. Atlanta can score with Trae Young off the floor. Last season the Hawks went from a better-than-average offense with Young on the floor to a historically bad offense when he sat, ultimately finishing 26th in the league in efficiency. This was evident early last preseason in a game against the Miami Heat which the Hawks lost by 33 points. Young had a plus-minus of zero, meaning the Hawks played even basketball when he was on the floor and got outscored by 33 points when he sat. While there are other factors that contribute to plus/minus splits like that, it illustrated early on that the Hawks simply could not survive offensively with Trae on the bench.
By contrast, the Hawks second preseason game this season saw them go on a 19-0 run in the third quarter against Orlando powered largely by Bogdanovic and Solomon Hill (??) while Trae scored and assisted on two buckets before spending the rest of the run on the bench. While it’s a small sample size, those types of
runs simply DIDN’T happen last year with Young out of the game, and the playmaking and shooting of the Bogdanovic and Huerter tandem could really breathe life into a Trae-less offense.
2. Atlanta has an elite offense. If #1 happens the Hawks likely end the season as a top-five offense. The biggest offensive issues for Atlanta last year were three-point shooting (worst in the NBA at 33%) and turnovers (28th last season, 30th the year before). If the Hawks improve to just league average three-point shooting (35%) and match their volume of 36 attempts per game, that’s an additional TWELVE points a game. While it's obviously not that simple in real game play, the point is that even a modest improvement in Atlanta’s three-point shooting -- even if the turnovers don’t improve -- will provide a massive boost to the offense. That seems highly like with Gallinari (40%), Bogdanovic (37%), and Tony Snell (40%) providing much more consistent shooting than Vince Carter, Treveon Graham, Evan Turner, Jabari Parker, et al. There are still issues when Rondo and Dunn share the floor or if Hunter and Reddish regress in their shooting, but Atlanta has greatly raised their shooting ceiling with the offseason additions.
Despite the atrocious turnover numbers in the preseason (Trae Young had 14 through the first two preseason games) the addition of plus passers like Gallinari and Bogdanovic and a more-than-competent backup PG in Rajon Rondo should help greatly improve the horrific offense Hawks fans endured while watching Evan Turner, De’Andre Bembry, and Kevin Huerter attempt to run the second unit during the first half of last season.
3. The defense improves. The Hawks gave heavy rotational minutes to three rookies last season (Hunter, Reddish, & Bruno Fernando) which essentially GUARANTEES being bad on defense. Rookies are generally poor on defense and inconsistent on offense, so playing multiple rookies is typically a recipe for defensive catastrophe. Hunter’s passivity as a defender allowed him to be solid, but much less effective than advertised while Reddish showed flashes of high-level lockdown potential as a wing defender. Fernando struggled to go more than 30 seconds without fouling, and all three rated as negative defenders, but their plus-minus are skewed largely because the Hawks had ZERO rim protection (the biggest factor in building a good defense) and were atrocious as a whole defensively. All this is to say that if Hunter and Reddish show just average improvement, their defense plus the additions of Dunn, Okungwu, Snell, and Capela give the Hawks a MASSIVE upgrade in defense personnel.
Another little-discussed factor in building a solid a defense is the importance of rebounding, where the Hawks should show vast improvement after finishing 28th in rebounding rate last season. The teams that dominate the glass typically have either one dominant boarder (like Giannis Antetokounmpo or Rudy Gobert) or a collection of guards/wings that crash the boards (ex: Clippers, Knicks). The Hawks added the former as Capela has quietly become an elite rebounder over the past two seasons, tallying 27 double-doubles in 39 games last year while Collins added another 22 in 41 games.
It seems like an oversimplification, but more defensive rebounds equals less possessions and shot attempts for the opposing team which is crucial for a team that don’t have the defensive pieces to defend multiple extra possessions each game...at least not without fouling -- a lot. The Hawks committed the most fouls in the NBA last season and finished 29th the year before. Committing fouls doesn’t directly correlate to bad defense (Cleveland committed the fewest fouls per game and finished dead last in defensive rating) but Hawks fans have sat through many a first quarter where John Collins or De'Andre Hunter picked up two fouls before the first timeout, or games where Bruno Fernando and Damian Jones finished with more fouls than rebounds.
The bottom line is that Atlanta’s inability to play competent defense without fouling (particularly with their bigs) has led to them surrendering the most free throw attempts per game in EACH of the last two seasons (27.5 last year, 28.3 the year before). Even a modest improvement in keeping teams off the stripe would provide an enormous boost for Atlanta’s defensive efficiency, especially with a unit that has more (and better) defenders on the perimeter and should be vastly improved at cleaning the glass and limiting teams to one shot.
Why the Hawks Could Be Bad
The TITLE RUN projection for the Hawks floor is 32 wins -- roughly 36 wins over an 82-game season. While a losing record isn’t likely considering the MASSIVE upgrade in talent, here are five things that could lead to the Hawks having a third-straight losing season:
1. The defense doesn’t improve...enough. See #3 above. There is no doubt that the upgrades to Atlanta’s roster will provide a boost on the defensive end of the floor, but what if it’s not enough?
It’s not hard to envision a world in which Trae Young remains one of the league’s worst defenders, Onyeka Onkungwu plays like a rookie, Rajon Rondo saves his defense for the playoffs, Danilo Gallinai looks old, and Kris Dunn’s minutes get squeezed in favor of wing options that can space the floor. While it’s difficult to envision a scenario in which Hunter and Reddish DON’T show some defensive improvement, will that be enough if Huerter, Bogdanovic, Trae, and Rondo are complete sieves in the backcourt?
Defensive improvement is a must for Atlanta. While it’s not necessary or realistic for the Hawks to ascend to top-10 defensive status, 15 of 16 playoff teams finished in the top-18 and every team below No.18 finished with a losing record. The Hawks don’t have to channel the 2004 Detroit Pistons on defense, but they need to improve to at least the middle third of the league to have a realistic shot at playoff contention.
2. The offense isn’t great. The Hawks enter the season with four proven commodities at the offensive end in Young, Collins, Gallinari, and Bogdanovic. You can reasonably expect those four to produce at a high offensive level. But what about the rest of the team?
What if DeAndre Hunter’s three-point shooting doesn’t improve? What if Cam Reddish shoots like he did during the first half of 2019? What if Kevin Heurter still can’t get to the free throw line? What if Dunn and Rondo shoot their career averages from three (31.6% and 30.6%)? What if rookie Onyeka Onkungwu is limited to catching lobs off pick & roll? It’s easy to see a world in which any one or two of those things happen and the Hawks underperform offensively, though it’s unlikely they would all happen. What CAN’T happen is for the Hawks to continue to rank among the league’s worst teams at taking care of the basketball.
The Hawks have finished in the bottom three in turnovers each of the last two years. To put it simply, another year leading the league in turnovers likely equals another year near the bottom of the standings. A high turnover rate doesn’t correlate directly into wins and losses (the Lakers and Bucks each ranked in the bottom five in turnovers) but it becomes kryptonite when it forces bad defensive teams like Atlanta to play extra possessions. This begins with Trae Young whose high usage rate and aggressive playing style will likely always result in high turnover numbers, but this could be offset by the addition of good secondary ballhandlers like Dunn and Bogdanovic and a competent backup point guard in Rondo.
3. Lloyd Pierce isn’t the right coach. Pierce has largely received a pass for his first two years as Hawks head coach, while working with an inexperienced roster that was not expected to win. There has certainly been room to question some of his lineup choices and late-game decisions, but those things don’t drastically alter the course of a 20-win team. Now with
actual expectations of a winning season, Pierce will be expected to identify the most effective lineups (especially to close games), balance wing minutes to continue the growth of Huerter, Hunter, and Reddish, convince Trae Young to at least PRETEND to care about defense, find a second-unit ball-handler when Rondo sits, and above all else --- WIN. If the results aren’t there, the Hawks have added a proven veteran coach to the bench in Nate McMillan who could easily slide over and take the reins if Schlenk loses faith in Pierce’s leadership.
Season Predictions
It’s no secret that Young put together an exceptional rookie year, but the historical context of his statistical performance was largely lost by the fact that Luka Doncic matched Trae stat-for-stat. The ever-linked duo put together two of the most impressive sophomore years of any guards in NBA HISTORY.
It seems likely that Trae’s scoring numbers take a slight dip while still improving both his efficiency and his assist rate. Remember, Trae’s 9.3 assists per game (No.2 in the NBA) came on the worst three-point shooting team in the league; it’s completely reasonable to expect those numbers to soar with the offensive firepower the Hawks added this offseason. I'm predicting that Trae makes his second-straight All-Star appearance joined by John Collins making his first.
Here are Title Run's statistical projections for the top eight players in the Hawks rotation.
Trae Young - 25.2 points /11.1 Assists / 46% FG / 38% 3-pt
John Collins - 19.3 points/10.1 rebounds/55.3% FG/ 37% 3-pt
Bogdan Bogdanovic - 16.4 points / 4.1 Assists / 45% FG / 39% 3-pt
Danilo Gallinari - 17.1 points /5 rebounds / 44% FG/ 41.2% 3-pt
De’Andre Hunter - 15.1 points/ 43% FG/ 37.7% 3-pt
Clint Capela - 15.3 points /13 rebounds / 63% FG
Kevin Huerter - 13.2 points/3.5 Assists/ 43% FG/ 40.3% 3-pt
Cam Reddish Stat Line - 13.1 points/ 40% FG/ 36% 3-pt
Barring major injuries, it’s difficult to see any scenario in which the Hawks do NOT boast an elite offense that leads to significant improvement in the win column. Overall, the Title Run projection for the 2020-21 seasons lands at 37.5 wins (about 42 wins in an 82 game season). Most seasons that's good for the No.7 or No.8 seed, but landing in those spots this season only guarantees a spot in the play-in tournament between the No.7, No.8, No.9, and No.10 seeds. While it's hard to get excited about the prospect of making the playoffs only to get wiped out by the Bucks, Celtics, Nets, or Sixers,a playoff berth is the first step to potentially attracting superstars and building towards a championship contender. It's worth saying again -- this is a team Atlanta Hawks fans should be excited about.
Let's go Hawks!
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