Atlanta's rather unexpected path through the 2020 NFL Draft rekindled discussions about the entire 13-year draft record of Thomas Dimitroff, and more specifically the effectiveness of his recent drafts alongside Falcons head coach Dan Quinn. Yes, it's easy to point fingers at maddeningly inconsistent players like Vic Beasley and complete duds like Duke Riley, but how well do the Quinn era drafts as a whole stand up to further review?
Expectations for any draft pick should be tempered based on draft position and positional value. For example, not every first round QB will make a Pro Bowl (it's literally impossible) so that's not a realistic expectation. However, it's not unreasonable to expect a first-round quarterback to be a competent starter early in his career. You get the idea. With that in mind, here's our take on projected draft value based on draft slot, and examples of pre-2015 Atlanta draft picks that fit the bill:
Top 10: All-Pro Potential - Elite prospect at a position of need (Julio Jones, Matt Ryan)
Top 20: Pro-Bowl Potential - Immediate starter w/potentially elite upside (Keith Brooking, Sean Weatherspoon)
Round 1: Long-term Starter - Immediately competent NFL player (Desmond Trufant, Patrick Kerney)
Round 2: Future Starter, Immediate contributor - Rotational player that grows into a starting role (Robert Alford) or is underdrafted and able to start immediately (Curtis Lofton, William Moore)
Round 3: Rotational player that could develop into future starter - Tevin Coleman, Harry Douglas, Thomas Decoud
Round 4: Depth player that could develop into rotational player - Levine Toilolo, Joe Hawley
Round 5: Developmental player - Players that project to become quality backups - Jacquizz Rodgers, Dominique Franks
Round 6: Makes end of the roster or practice squad - Special teams players or end-of-the-bench depth (Matt Bosher, David Irons)
Round 7: Throwing darts - Project players that rarely make the roster (Jason Snelling)
UDFA: Throwing darts blindfolded - Players brought in to fill out the training camp roster. Occasionally you find a Joplo Bartu or Paul Worrilow.
With those expectations laid out, we've separated the players of the 2015-2019 drafts into five categories based on whether they met, exceeded, or fell below these expectations. (Evaluations of the 2020 draft are obviously premature at this point and are not included.) Here's a look at the first five drafts of the Dan Quinn era.
The first thing that stands out is the retention rate. The Falcons have retained 75% of their draft classes in the four years following each draft, and that percentage is even higher when you account for seventh round picks that didn't make the team (which is the common outcome for most seventh round picks). In other words, the Falcons have been good at using and retaining players the players they draft over the last five years. The question is whether those players are playing up to their expectations.
Misses
Players that did not approach draft expectations
Jalen Collins (2nd) - Released after two drug suspensions, Collins hasn't played an NFL game since 2016.
Duke Riley (3rd) - Riley was traded to Philadelphia after two disappointing years in Atlanta where he struggled with tackling, pursuit angles, and pretty much everything other than running fast in a straight line.
Deadrin Senat (3rd) - Senat -- apparently in the coach's doghouse -- recorded ZERO tackles in two appearances last year. He played less than 30 snaps for the season. Senat could still recover, but the selection of Marlon Davidson doesn't bode well for his future.
* Players like Marcus Green, Akeem King, Jake Rodgers, and Devin Fuller were left off this list since since late round draft picks are generally long-shots to make any NFL roster. Jordan Miller and Chris Lindstrom did not play enough snaps to be accurately evaluated.
Disappointments
Players that show flashes, but haven't consistently met draft expectations
Vic Beasley (No. 8 overall) - A top-10 pick should be an All-Pro talent. Despite his inconsistency, Beasley's 2016 All-Pro season keeps him from being a true "bust" as he is often labeled.
Kaleb McGary (No. 31 overall) - McGary was a below average starter (Pro Football Focus grade of 53.3) that the Falcons traded up to get. He's still got time, but his rookie year fell far below expectations.
Sean Harlow (4th) - Harlow was expected to provide long-term depth on the offensive interior, but he has consistently remained on the fringe of the roster after annually losing positional battles with every other interior lineman the Falcons bring in.
Takk McKinley (No. 26 overall) - McKinley's hit and pressure rates are too strong to call him a bust, but he can't stay healthy and produced a career low 3.5 sacks last year.
Average Joes
These players met the expectations for their draft slot
Justin Hardy (4th) - A quality backup and special teams player who generally managed to produce when he was needed.
Keanu Neal (No. 17 overall) - A top-20 safety should be a Pro Bowl level talent. Neal has shown he is just that when healthy.
Calvin Ridley (No. 26 overall) - Ridley has 1,600+ yards and 17 TD in his first two seasons. That's good-but-not-elite production -- pretty much what you'd expect from a No. 26 draft pick.
Isaiah Oliver (2nd) - Oliver became a full-time starter as expected in year two. He didn't excel, but he played well enough in the second half to enter 2020 as Atlanta's CB1.
John Cominsky (4th) - Cominsky saw rotational duty late in the year and received a strong grade (82.1) from PFF in limited snaps.
Kendall Sheffield (4th) - Injuries pushed Sheffield into full-time duty at slot corner where he excelled during the second half of the season.
Brian Hill (5th), Ito Smith (4th), Qadree Ollison (5th) - All three are quality backups that have shown good to above average production in their limited roles.
Hits
These players exceeded draft expectations
Tevin Coleman (3rd) - There's an argument for Coleman to go on the "Average Joes" list since he's never even topped 1,000 yards rushing, but the fifth back taken in the 2015 draft has tallied the fourth most scrimmage yards in that class.
De'Vondre Campbell (4th) - Campbell grew from a fast linebacker with questionable instincts into a plus starter that led the team in tackles and became too expensive for Atlanta to re-sign.
Wes Schweitzer (6th) - Drafted as a possible swing tackle, Schweitzer kicked inside to guard and started 36 games over the last three seasons. While less-than-spectacular, Schweitzer has easily outperformed his draft slot as a fringe roster player.
Russell Gage (6th) - Gage entered the league as a special teams ace, and the Falcons even experimented with him at corner. After injuries and trades decimated the receiving depth last year, Gage stepped in to tally 49 catches and 446 yards -- exceptional production for a player never expected to contribute as a receiver.
Olamide Zaccheus (UDFA) - Zaccheus wasn't expected to make the active roster, much less play in 10 games and score a 93-yard TD on his first career catch.
Terron Ward (UD (UDFA) - While it seems like a vague memory, Ward served as the primary backup on multiple occasions whether either Tevin Coleman or Devonta Freeman were injured. Ward stuck around with the Falcons for three years and accumulated 375 yards on 90 carries.
Sharrod Neasman (UDFA) - Neasman has tallied 41 appearances in four seasons with the Falcons, earning starter reps during the snake-bitten 2018 season.
Diamonds in the Rough Players that significantly outperformed their draft position
Deion Jones (2nd) - Called a "reach" at the time, Jones reached All-Pro status in year two, eradicating the size concerns that hurt his draft stock.
Austin Hooper (3rd) - After back-to-back Pro Bowls seasons, Hooper just became the highest paid TE in NFL history.
Grady Jarrett (5th) - All-Pro talents aren't supposed to go in round five. Jarrett's size caused teams to overlook his obvious tools as he has developed into one of the best interior defenders in the NFL.
Damontae Kazee (5th) - After moving from corner to safety to replace the injured Ricardo Allen in 2018, Kazee tied for the league lead in interceptions with seven.
Foye Oluokun (6th) - A relative unknown coming out of Yale, Oluokun's 91 tackles as a rookie earned him a spot as the Falcons SAM linebacker of the future.
Brian Poole (UDFA) - Undrafted rookies don't usually start in Super Bowls OR get second contracts. Brian Poole has done both.
Summary
While it's easy to kill the Falcons for their draft failures, a more critical look shows the team has found and retained a great deal of quality depth in the first five drafts of the Quinn era. If you invert the chart above, you essentially get a bell curve -- some misses, some homeruns, and a lot of picks right in the middle. This is the case for nearly most NFL teams. What separates the habitually good franchises is their ability to consistently draft and retain"hits"at the most high impact positions.
Thomas Dimitroff has continued to excel in drafting skill positions, while even the addition of Quinn and his defensive line background hasn't been enough to solve the Falcons woes drafting players on the line of scrimmage. If the Falcons move on from Quinn and/or Dimitroff after this season it will likely stem from yet another year of subpar line play on both sides of the ball with the steady trickle of quality skill players and linebackers once again unable to overcome it.
Comments