The Atlanta Falcons don’t care about conventional draft wisdom.
Conventional wisdom says top-10 picks should pair talent and needs with positional value, and no position is more valuable than quarterback. The NFL functions on the postulate that quarterback drives your entire roster construction and the value of all other positions depends on how closely they relate to/and or affect the quarterback. That means the most important offensive players are those that have the most impact on making the quarterback better at his job (tackle and wide receiver) and the most important defensive players are those that make the quarterback’s job harder (pass rusher and cornerback). In short, wide receiver, tackle, pass rusher, and cornerback are the premium non-quarterback positions nearly universally targeted with high draft picks.
Enter the Falcons.
In three drafts under Terry Fonentot, Atlanta has spent top-10 picks on a tight end and running back -- two of the LEAST valuable positions on offense -- and choices that have drawn the ire and disdain of fans and experts alike. Atlanta has chosen to zig while the rest of the league zags by committing to taking the best player available in the first round REGARDLESS of need or positional value. That strategy has yet to pay off in consecutive seven win seasons, and if their most recent bold move – taking Texas running back Bijan Robinson over players at more premium positions like Jalen Carter, Christian Gonzales, and Peter Skoronski – doesn’t pay off, the Smith-Fontenot regime will not only be over, they will have set the franchise back years.
The Case for Taking Bijan Robinson
A lot of experts are saying Robinson is the best RB prospect since Saquon Barkley. They’re wrong. Robinson is the best prospect RB prospect since Todd Gurley. Yes, he’s a better prospect than Barkley. While Robinson doesn’t share Barkley’s freakish size-speed ratio, he has superior vision, footwork, and tackle breaking ability while sharing the contact balance, long speed, and receiving skills that have made Barkley a two-time Pro Bowler. Pro Football Focus seems to agree as Robinson’s 2022 season earned a 95.3 overall grade while Barkley’s best season at Penn State topped out at 87.3.
By every conceivable measurement Bijan Robinson ranks as an ELITE, borderline-generational running back prospect. He enters the league healthier than Todd Gurley, faster than Ezekiel Elliot, breaking more tackles than Saquon Barkley, and weighing 13 pounds more than Christian McCaffrey. That's probably why he currently sits with the best odds to win Offensive Rookie of the year.
Robinson projects to become one of the best running backs in the NFL within the next few years and he’s going to a team that ran the ball more than any other team in the league in 2022. Between his talent and the volume of touches he’ll receive, he seems more
than capable of hitting the threshold of 1,800 scrimmage yards that Christian McCaffrey, Ezekiel Elliot, Alvin Kamara, Dalvin Cook, Todd Gurley, and Derrick Henry all hit during their rookie contract. Is that enough? Are Falcons fans satisfied with adding Alvin Kamara, Ezekiel Elliot, or even Todd Gurley to the roster at No. 8? That’s how good Robinson is; he’s essentially a wart-free prospect.
BUT…
He’s still a running back. And elite running backs don’t win Super Bowls in today’s NFL.
The Case Against Bijan Robinson
Ever heard of Tyler Allgeier? The former fifth-round pick from BYU just dropped a surprising 1,000 yard rookie season that seemed to indicate the Falcons had found the bellcow Arthur Smith needed to drive his run-heavy offense. There’s an old draft saying: “Never let a good player stop you from taking a great player.” In other words, don’t be afraid to draft an elite player at a position where you already have a good player in place. That doesn't apply to
positions like QB where one can play and they can’t really share reps, but it’s true at nearly every other position. A perfect example is the Minnesota Vikings taking Adrian Peterson at No. 7 in the 2007 draft despite having Chester Taylor who ran for 1,216 yards the year before. Running back clearly wasn’t a need, but the Vikings saw Peterson as the best running back prospect since LaDainian Tomlinson, viewing him as an elite player too good to pass up. Peterson went on to win three rushing titles, and MVP, and help lead the team to four playoff appearances in nine absolutely outstanding seasons. That seems to be the Falcons approach here. Tyler Allgeier is Chester Taylor – a good back. But is Bijan Robinson Adrian Peterson?
Even if he is…does it matter?
In the last five years, only ONE running back selected to the AP All-Pro team has made it to a Super Bowl (Todd Gurley in 2018). Not a single All-Pro running back has won a Super Bowl in
that time frame, and five of the nine All-Pro selections during that time played for teams that missed the playoffs. Yes, you read that correctly. Having an elite RB gives you roughly a 50/50 chance of making the postseason.
If you look at raw production the number aren’t much better. In the last five years the NFL’s leading rusher has not played in a Super Bowl. The top three rushers in the NFL all missed the playoffs in 2022, four of the top-five missed in 2021, three of the top-five missed in 2020, and two of the top-five missed in 2019 and 2018. Recent teams with a top-five rushers have earned a playoff berth 44% of time. That's not exactly an encouraging number.
The Falcons have had a Mercedes-Benz stadium-sized hole at pass rusher ever since Vic Beasley fell off from his anomalous 2016 campaign. Fans have been BEGGING the team to fix the defensive line of scrimmage and much of the angst from the first three Smith-Fontenot drafts come from that fact that Atlanta has not touched edge rusher with any of their three top-10 picks. Many fans are aware of what you just read -- that elite running backs don’t necessarily win you games. But the track record has to be better for pass rushers, right?
Among 2022’s top-five leaders in sacks three made the playoffs and two of those three (Chris Jones and Haason Reddick) played in the Super Bowl. The same held true in 2021 with three of the top-five making the playoffs and Trey Hendrickson of Cincinnati playing in the Super Bowl. In 2020 four of the top-five made the playoffs, and in 2018 and 2019 three of the top-five made the playoffs with Aaron Donald’s Rams making the Super Bowl in 2018. Recent teams with a top-five pass rusher have earned a playoff berth 64% of the time. In short, high-level pass rushers appear to have more impact on team success than high-level running backs. This means the Falcons screwed up this draft, right?
That sentiment would be true IF the Falcons passed up an elite pass rusher. Did they?
Why Not Jalen Carter?
With the top two pass rusher gone in Will Anderson and Tyree Wilson, the Falcons were left to choose between reaching for an inferior defensive prospect like Lukas Van Ness, Myles Murphy, or Nolan Smith to fill that need or simply taking the best player available. There is not question Jalen Carter was the best defensive player available. Todd McShay had him as the No. 2 player in the draft and I had him ranked in the top-three along with Will Anderson
and Bijan Robinson. But for all that Carter provides in athleticism, disruption, and run stuffing, he doesn’t provide all that much in terms of pass rush – few interior defenders do. Carter totaled six sacks in three-years at UGA, but at least some of that can be attributed to sharing snaps with TWO other first rounds picks in Devonte Wyatt and Jordan Davis his freshman and sophomore years.
It’s also a brute fact that high-level interior defenders don’t consistently put up double-digit sack numbers. That’s easy to forget with Aaron Donald stringing together a series of outlier years from 2017-2021 where he averaged 14 sacks a season. (There’s a reason his name gets mentioned on the short list for best defensive player EVER). Taking Donald off the board, more mortal stud defensive tackles like Chris Jones, Fletcher Cox, Quinnen Williams, Daron Payne, and Grady Jarrett have a combined FIVE seasons of double digit sacks between the six of them. So if Jalen Carter becomes as good as the best defensive tackles in all of football (a very realistic outcome), he still doesn’t solve your pass rush problems long-term.
A Carter selection also discounts the additions of Calais Campbell, Eddie Goldman, and David Onyemata to Atlanta's interior group alongside Ta’Quon Graham and Grady Jarrett. While Carter would provide an immediate upgrade over every player besides Jarrett and Campbell, his selection would also create a logjam at a position the Falcons have already invested HEAVILY in (over $37 million). Depth is great, but it's hard to get six players quality reps at two spots, especially pricey veterans like Jarrett, Campbell, and Onyemata.
NBC Sports also reported that Carter got less-than-glowing reviews from the Georgia coaching staff in addition to the overblown concerns about his reckless driving plea, and the more reasonable concerns about the lack of conditioning shown at his pro day. If the Falcons viewed Carter and Robinson as equally talented prospects, it makes sense why the peripherals would lead them to favor Robinson.
So the equation from the Falcons perspective goes something like this:
The draft’s elite pass rushers are off the board.
No.8 is too high to take other positions of need (guard and wide receiver) in this draft.
The best defensive player available – Jalen Carter – has minor red flags and doesn’t provide huge pass rush upside.
Bijan Robinson represents a top-three talent and a skillset that would transform Arthur Smith's offense.
All of those factors seem to have led the Falcons to determine that Robinson’s talent outweighs his positional value. That his skillset is so elite that it supersedes other more pressing needs and makes him a “must have” for their roster. That the gap between him and Tyler Allegeier is significant enough that Allgeier’s 1,000 yard season does not merit giving him the keys as the long-term RB1. They have pushed their chips to the middle of the table and determined that their offense will be built around a generational running back as opposed to an elite quarterback. They may die on this hill.
There's a reason modern NFL teams build around quarterbacks. They have less injury risk, more longevity, a longer prime, and a greater overall impact on the game since the ball touches their hands on EVERY play. Few modern teams have built successful contenders around a high-end running back. None have won a Super Bowl that way. The Falcons are betting that they can build a winner in a completely different manner. They’d better be right.
What if injuries sap Robinson of his burst as they did with Todd Gurley and Ezekiel Elliot? What if he’s “very good” but not elite? Worse yet…what if Robinson IS that good and Desmond Ridder isn’t the answer?
If Robinson is NOT what we all think then Smith & Fontenot have set the Falcons back YEARS. For this experiment to work Robinson HAS to be an All-Pro level performer leading an efficient and productive offense. He MUST be Derrick Henry. He MUST be Todd Gurley. Anything less than that is a complete and utter failure.
Let’s pray this gamble pays off.
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