Title Run is back to hit you with more NFL Draft wisdom. Last year we shared the unconventional revelation that Baker Mayfield was the clear-cut QB1 in the 2018 draft class and he went on to set an NFL record for rookie TD passes (27). Now we're back with volume two. All the draft buzz surrounds Heisman Trophy winner Kyler Murray, but is he truly deserving of being the first QB taken? For starters, here's a quick recap of what we look for when evaluating quarterback prospects:
Accuracy - Does he deliver the ball on time and to the right spots? Does he have touch? The magic number for a college QB is usually a 60% completion rate (preferably in consecutive years). If a QB hits that mark it’s a pretty good indicator that his accuracy will translate to the next level. The proliferation of spread offenses heavy in screens and RPOs can lead to inflated completion percentages, so a stat like “yards per attempt” is also very helpful. A high Y/A (8+ is solid) gives you a good idea of whether that QB is dinking and dunking or really driving the ball down the field.
Arm Strength - Can he make all the throws (Seam, Deep Out, Comeback)? It's worth repeating that arm strength is GROSSLY overrated. It’s overemphasized because it's the one attribute that’s easiest to see and it’s sexy. It’s also the common thread with nearly every first round bust you can think of -- Akili Smith, Jamarcus Russell, Ryan Leaf, Brandon Weeden, Chris Weinke, Kyle Boller...you get the idea. They all had rocket arms but couldn't play.
Athleticism - Speed, elusiveness, and escape ability. This isn’t a must, but it’s a plus if the QB has it.
Fundamentals - Do they have consistent footwork, good throwing mechanics, and sound ball security?
Production - Specifically -- completion percentage, TDs, INT, and WINS
Intangibles - Leadership, toughness, the “clutch” gene. A lot of this comes from here-say and word-of-mouth since very few pundits have any real interactions with these players or their teams. It’s the one measurement on this list that can’t be evaluated on film.
With that out of the way, here's an in-depth look at each of the five quarterbacks projected to go in the first round of this year's draft (in alphabetical order).
Will Grier, West Virginia (6-2, 217)
Profile
Arm Strength: C+
Grier has very average arm strength, but overcomes it with exceptional timing and anticipation.
Athleticism: C+
His combine numbers show above-average athleticism (4.84 40-yard dash, 34-inch vertical) but that didn’t necessarily translate into much production with his legs in college.
Accuracy: A-
His lowest completion percentage is 64%, he has a solid YPA number (over 9.0 the last two years) and even his incompletions tend to be near misses.
Fundamentals: B+
Grier's fundamentals could be an "A" if he had taken traditional drops in college. While he didn't use dropback footwork at West Virginia, he's got lively feet and throws from a consistent base.
Production: A
Extremely consistent with at least 3,500 yards and 34 TD each of the last two seasons, four wins over ranked opponents, and several monster games against the best teams in the Big 12.
Intangibles: A+
His football IQ shows on the field, and he’s been praised for his leadership and competitiveness. He also showed the “clutch” gene by making huge plays late in the Texas and Oklahoma games.
What I Like:
Reads defenses like a super-computer. See, diagnoses, and gets the ball out unbelievably quickly. Scouts counter this by saying his decision-making is largely a function of pre-snap reads built into WVU’s system.
Excellent on three-step rhythm throws and RPO reads.
Accurate, anticipates throws, and shows excellent touch, especially on deep throws. Has one of the best deep balls in a draft full of QBs who do that well.
Throws the rhythm fade as well as any QB you'll find.
Excellent pocket awareness and can move to buy time, but not as accurate on the run.
Universally praised for his competitiveness and leadership. Seems to have the "it" factor.
What I Don't Like:
Wasn't asked to make NFL reads or all of the NFL throws. You don't see many corner routes, deep outs, or comebacks routes on his highlights.
His arm strength is very average, although his accuracy and anticipation make up for some of what he lacks in zip.
NFL Comparisons
Ceiling - Kirk Cousins
Super-productive over-achiever with great intangibles; a player that can put up good numbers despite average physical tools.
Mid-level - Chad Pennington
Winning QB that isn't elite, but gets the job done with brains, grit, and good accuracy.
Floor - Kase Keenum
Gun-slinging back-up/spot starter capable of lighting it up in occasional flashes of brilliance.
Conclusion
Personally, I don’t see Will Grier as a long-term starting quarterback. He makes his living off RPOs and three-step rhythm throws and doesn’t show the ability to throw the five & seven-step routes that are staples of most NFL offenses. He projects better as a spot starter and a reliable long-term backup -- the Ryan Fitzpatrick type that can come off the bench and give you that random three TD, 300-yd game where he looks like the real deal. He does possess some NFL tools, but it would take the perfect system and coach to make him successful as a long-term NFL starter.
Dwayne Haskins, Ohio State (6-3, 231)
Profile
Arm Strength: A
Haskins has"easy" gas. He effortlessly uncorks fastballs down the hashes and 50-yard rainbows down the sidelines. He and Lock have the best arms in this draft.
Athleticism: C-
Haskins isn’t a statue in the pocket, but he’s close. Avoiding pressure is not one of his strengths, and his 5.04 40-yard dash means he won't be running away from many people at the next level.
Accuracy: B+
His completion percentage is inflated by the obscene number of screen passes Ohio State ran in 2018, but he shows good touch and accuracy to match his strong arm.
Fundamentals: B
Unlike the other spread QBs on this list, Haskins DID use dropback footwork and throws from a solid base with lively feet and good leg drive.
Haskins often loses his legs when pressured and relies on pure arm strength to muscle the ball to his targets. This usually results in a significant loss of accuracy.
Production: A+
He threw 50 TD and led the nation in passing yards. His team went 14-1 on their way to winning the Big Ten Championship and the Rose Bowl. That's one pretty productive year.
Intangibles: Unknown
What I like:
Good footwork, possesses plus, plus arm strength.
Lightning quick release.
Has a strong arm, but still knows how to throttle the velocity on his throws.
Especially effective on intermediate throws (10-20 yards) and excels at the Dig route, Curl, Deep Out, and Deep Comeback -- all of which are NFL throws.
What I don’t like:
Not as accurate as his completion percentage indicates. Ohio State's heavy, heavy screen game boosted his accuracy numbers and accounted for around 20% of his passing yards.
Haskins hasn't played a ton of football -- only one-year as a full-time starter.
Holds the ball a long time. Can be deliberate (sometimes downright slow) with his reads.
Not great under pressure. Lacks the athleticism to avoid the rush, and doesn’t consistently stand tall to deliver throws with heat in his face. Often falls away from his target or turns his body to avoid contact when under pressure.
Those last two points means he's likely to take a LOT of sacks at the next level.
NFL Comparisons
Ceiling - Drew Bledsoe
Polished pocket passer with Pro Bowl caliber production.
In-between - Joe Flacco
A competent starter with good accuracy and solid production.
Floor - Byron Leftwich
Enough arm talent and accuracy to hang around the league, but not a reliable long-term starter.
Conclusion
Haskins sat high atop my QB board at the beginning of draft season; his production, accuracy and arm strength were just impossible to ignore. At the start of this process he seemed like the “safest” QB in the draft to me, and I still believe that. BUT as I dug deeper into his games I started to see more of his warts, and no longer think he has the highest ceiling in this class. I think Haskins is highly likely to be a productive NFL starter and highly unlikely to be a bust, but I’m not sold on him transforming into an All-Pro level passer. When well-protected he’s a maestro that can destroy teams with his arm strength and second-level accuracy and I believe he’s a safe bet to become a good starting QB in the NFL.
Daniel Jones, Duke (6-5, 221)
Profile
Arm Strength: B
The draft buzz around Jones seems to have colored perceptions of his arm strength. He definitely possesses NFL arm talent, but nowhere near that of Drew Lock or Dwayne Haskins.
Athleticism: B-
Jones doesn’t have much wiggle, but he’s faster than you think (4.81 40-yard dash), and he's a surprisingly good straight-line runner.
Accuracy: C
Jones' yards per attempt average is alarmingly low, and he's extremely scattershot on deep throws. His completion percentage is solid, but was hurt by excessive drops. That said, you'd expect an offense that uses so many high percentage throws to generate a much higher completion rate.
Fundamentals: B
Jones didn't take drops at Duke, so learning five & seven step footwork will be an adjustment for him at the next level.
Jones has extremely polished and consistent throwing mechanics and uses his legs well to drive throws down the field.
Production: C-
No one will accuse Daniel Jones of accumulating empty stats. He had just two 300 games and his game totals are rather pedestrian other than an INSANE performance against UNC in which he threw for 361 yards, ran for 186, and totaled four TD.
Intangibles: Unknown
What I like:
Has polished footwork and throwing mechanics.
Solid athlete with good straight-line speed.
Ideal measurables with good arm strength, toughness, and durability.
Can complete throws in tight windows, although he doesn’t do it consistently.
Jones played a LOT of football under an outstanding quarterback guru in David Cutcliffe.
What I don’t like:
Jones basically threw four routes in college -- RPO Slant, RPO Quick Out, Seam routes, and Go routes. He didn’t make advanced reads and didn’t take drops.
Jones is consistently inaccurate on deep throws, and frequently forced throws into tight windows (often b/c his receivers struggled to get consistent separation).
His production isn't good for a high-level prospect -- no 3,000 seasons and just 52 TD in three years. By comparison, Dwayne Haskins threw 50 TD in 2018 alone and Kyler Murray passed for 1,700 more yards on 15 less attempts.
NFL Comparisons
Ceiling - Nick Foles
System QB who can thrive in the right situation.
In-between - Blake Bortles
High-end back-up/Low-end starter who shows flashes of high-level play.
Floor - Joey Harrington
Career back-up and game manager who thrives on underneath throws
Conclusion
Jones is a 2nd/3rd round QB that people are trying to shoehorn into the first round. He has good physical tools, but his draft buzz is more because of the profile he fits, not his actual play. He didn’t exactly light the world on fire at Duke but wasn’t helped by poor offensive line play very inconsistent receivers. He’s projects best as a wait-and-see prospect or a spot starter, so any team taking him to be a day one franchise player is likely to be disappointed.
Drew Lock, Missouri (6-4, 228)
Profile
Arm Strength: A-
Yes, his arm is as good as everyone says.
Athleticism: C+
His 4.69 40-yard dash and 4.12 shuttle say that Lock is one of the best athletes in this QB class. The film tells another story -- one of a rather stiff runner who only makes a handful of plays with his legs.
Accuracy: B-
His completion percentage improved each year (54.6% / 57.8% / 62.9%) and his numbers were hurt by excessive drops the past two seasons (23 in 2017). While his accuracy improved, his yards per attempt saw a big drop his senior year (9.5 to 8.0). Still, the steady improvement in completion percentage gives reason to believe he will continue to grow in this area.
Fundamentals: B-
Lock didn't take drops at Missouri, so like most of the QBs on this list, his footwork is unrefined heading into the NFL.
His throwing mechanics are good, but he can become a bit inconsistent with his arm slot at times.
Production: B+
He totaled 72 TD and 7,400+ yards the last two years, but a closer look shows that he feasted on weaker opponents to produce most of his best games, and Missouri was just 8-8 in SEC play the last two years.
Intangibles: Unknown
What I like:
Outstanding arm talent (both zip and distance)
Throws a consistently excellent deep ball
Surprisingly good athlete, although not much of a runner
Improved every year in college
Aggressive -- can fit the ball into tight windows against good coverage
Reads the entire field and can find his second and third options
Doesn’t take a lot of sacks -- only 18 all of last season.
Three-and-a-half year starter that played a ton of football
Super productive junior and senior years
What I Don't like:
Spread system at Missouri didn’t require advanced footwork and most short throws were RPO reads.
Doesn’t throw especially well on the run.
The biggest concern is the way Lock seemed to disappear against the top teams in the SEC. In Missouri’s first four SEC games against Georgia, South Carolina, Alabama, and Kentucky he threw one TD, five INT, and completed just 49% of his passes. Yikes.
NFL Comparisons
Ceiling - Eli Manning
Lots of yards and touchdowns, but not necessarily elite.
Mid-level - Kerry Collins
Solid starting-quality QB with an occasional outsanding season mixed in.
Floor - Ryan Mallett, Zach Mettenberger, Mike Glennon, et al
Back-up QB with good arm talent -- take your pick.
Conclusion
Lock is a good prospect for a team willing to be patient. He has all the physical tools but is probably best suited to sit a year while he adjusts to an NFL system (a la Patrick Mahomes). The longer he has to watch and learn, the closer he’ll get to reaching his ceiling.
Some may not find the Eli Manning comparison sexy, but Eli is a streaky passer who, on any given Sunday, is a threat to go for 400 yards and 4 TD. In his good years he throws for 35 TD and 4,400 yards (2015), and in his bad years he throws 27 INT (2013). That kind of up-and-down play has marked Lock’s college career (thus the comparison), but he’s got tremendous arm talent, tons of upside, and could be a very good pro if allowed time to develop.
Kyler Murray, Oklahoma (5-10, 207)
Profile
Arm Strength: B
His arm has a lot more juice than people realize. He can make every throw and has a fantastic deep ball.
Athleticism: A
He’s a good runner and an elite scrambler. He’s a notch below Lamar Jackson, but he’s the most athletic QB in this class by miles.
Accuracy: A
His size causes him to lose accuracy with a rush in his face since he often has to change his release point to throw around larger defenders. When the pocket’s clean or he gets space on the run he can be surgically precise.
Fundamentals: C-
Murray's fundamentals are maddening to evaluate. He rarely sets his feet on short throws and frequently delivers the ball while off-balance...but with high accuracy. He has poor ball security and rarely tucks the ball when he takes off, but he rarely fumbles. His fundamentals are unlikely to change at the next level.
Production: A+
He threw for 4,000 yards, ran for 1,000 yards, won the Big 12, won the Heisman trophy , and absolutely shredded Alabama in the second half of an ill-fated comeback during the 2019 Orange Bowl.
Intangibles: Unknown
He's extremely competitive and extremely tough, both exceptional traits to have. His leadership skills and football IQ are still very much unknowns.
What I Like:
Surprisingly strong arm -- just check out the GIF of him launching the ball 55 yards while on the run against Alabama.
Outstanding scrambler who doesn't takes big hits; a master at sliding and getting out-of-bounds after maximizing his yardage
Very accurate and throws well on the run
His mobility make him difficult to sack
Very accurate on deep passes; throws the go route and seam route extremely well.
Has exceptional pocket awareness; can escape pressure to buy time.
Short, but extremely well built with thick lower body (weighed 207 lbs at NFL combine).
Skill set, playing style, and size legitimately compare to Russell Wilson.
What I Don’t Like
He’s short. At 5-10.25 he will be the shortest QB in the NFL.
His accuracy numbers are padded by the screen game, but not to the extent of Dwayne Haskins. That said, his yardage numbers are significantly inflated by throwing to elite run-after-catch receivers in CeeDee Lamb and Marquise Brown.
Like most other QBs on this list he’s not used to taking traditional drops and his initial pocket footwork can be lazy at times.
He can hold on to the ball too long trying to make things happen.
He shows poor fundamentals with ball security, but only lost three career fumbles.
NFL Comparisons
Ceiling - Russell Wilson
High-level quarterback with an elite mix of mobility and passing acumen.
Mid-level - Seneca Wallace
Solid long-term back-up.
Floor - Joe Hamilton
NFL washout unable to adapt his college skill set to the pro game.
Conclusion
Murray has elite passing AND running skills, but his mobility truly separates him from the other quarterbacks in this class. His upside is enormous, but it's rare to see quarterbacks with his skill set thrive long-term in the NFL. Depending on where he lands and how he's schemed he could be Steve McNair, RGIII, or somewhere in between. What's certain is that he's a rare talent with the video game-like ability too tantalizing to slide out of the top-10.
Final Rankings
5. Daniel Jones - Jones is a talented quarterback who lacks high-level production and experience making NFL drops and throws. He’s not a day one starter, but he’s extremely attractive as a long-term prospect with good physical tools who could blossom in the right system.
4. Will Grier - Grier has mediocre physical tools, but his intangibles and production make him an intriguing prospect. His leadership and accuracy make it easy to envision him having a productive NFL career, and arguably make him more NFL-ready than Daniel Jones. That said, his lack of experience with NFL footwork & throws coupled with average arm-talent means he has the lowest ceiling on this list.
3. Drew Lock - Lock is the classic big-armed boom-or-bust prospect. If he’s allowed to take a redshirt year to work on footwork and learning an NFL playbook he has a MUCH better shot of reaching his ceiling as a Matthew Stafford-level QB -- a rock-solid starter whose arm talent produces flashes of elite-level production.
The debate between Haskins and Murray for the No.1 spot really comes down to what a team is looking for. Do you want the player with the slightly lower ceiling but the much higher floor? Or would you rather take the player with the higher ceiling but the much lower floor? Haskins is the first, Murray is the second. Would you rather have an 80% chance of getting Drew Bledsoe (Haskins) or a 50% chance of getting Russell Wilson (Murray)? It’s a tough call to make. With that said...
1B. Kyler Murray - I love watching Kyler Murray play. I hate evaluating him. He’s not Baker Mayfield, nor is he Johnny Manziel. He could be either or he just as easily be neither. His skill set is incredibly hard to project because so few quarterbacks have been successful doing what he’s does. He has the arm strength, accuracy, and poise of a polished pocket passer, but he’s BEST when he’s running circles around defenders before uncorking 50-yard bombs or tip-toeing his way down the sideline late against Texas.
If you promised me Kyler Murray would play for Andy Reid, Bill Belichick, or Doug Pedersen he’d be alone at the top of his list. I believe in his skill set, and with the right coach he could absolutely set the league on fire. But is Kliff Kingsbury that coach? I’m not sold.
Murray is a volatile futures stock that could just as easily take-off as tank. Despite being my personal favorite and having the highest ceiling in this draft, he shares the top spot with a prospect whose stock is much more stable...
1A. Dwayne Haskins - Dwayne Haskins is going to be a good NFL quarterback. He blends electric arm talent with solid fundamentals and undeniable production. He may never be elite, but his skill set fits into any scheme, and he’s a low-risk prospect that should be able to produce as soon as gets behind a line that can keep him upright.
Agree? Disagree? Tell us why in the comments below.