In January, Mariana Rivera became the first player EVER to receive unanimous votes for the Major League Baseball Hall of Fame. The obvious question is -- who's next?
The Criteria
In trying to determine the players most likely to get the necessary votes, we used four criteria to evaluate candidacy:
Reputation/Legacy - Are they remembered as a dominant player? To be a consensus choice they have to be enough of a no-brainer to leapfrog other deserving candidates.
Longevity - How long did they play at an elite level?
Production - Did they hit the requisite statistical benchmarks for their position & era?
Free of PED suspicion - If the PED cloud hovers anywhere near them you can say goodbye to any hopes a consensus selection.
With that said, here are five players we think have the best shot at unanimous first-ballot Hall of Fame selection.
The Argument For: Kershaw's absurd run from 2011 to 2017 included three Cy Young awards, five ERA titles, an MVP, and three strike-out titles. Kershaw would've tallied a sixth ERA title in 2016 with a dental-floss thin 1.69 ERA, but he didn't pitch enough innings to qualify. All of that was before he turned 30. Kershaw has been the best left-handed pitcher in baseball for the last decade and his current trajectory could place him squarely in the conversation for best left-handed pitcher ever.
The Argument Against: Two knocks against Kershaw are his lack of longevity and post-season success. Kershaw passed 300 starts just this past season, and is only in his tenth full major league season. That's just not a lot of baseball compared to most HOF pitchers.
His career postseason record is 9-10 with an ERA of 4.32. That's not terrible, but it's certainly not indicative of a three-time Cy Young winner who is nigh-unhittable during the regular season. It also doesn't help that Kershaw's most recent postseason ended with a pummeling at the hands of the Boston Redsox during the 2018 World Series (11 innings, nine earned runs, 7.36 ERA). World Championships aren't everything in baseball like they are in football or basketball, but laying an egg like that on baseball's biggest stage won't help Kershaw's legacy.
Verdict: Kershaw is already a lock for the HOF. The question will be whether he can pitch long enough to accumulate the raw numbers to justify unanimous inclusion. While reaching 300 wins will be difficult (he'd need about nine more seasons at his current rate) Kershaw's Cy Young awards and ERA titles make a very strong case. Another Cy Young ties him with Greg Maddux and Steve Carlton for third all-time, and two more would tie him with Randy Johnson for second. If Kershaw hits either of those marks he reaches rarified air among all-time greats as someone easily worthy of consensus consideration.
The Argument For: Cabrera is one the most-complete hitters of the last 20 years. His combination of power, average, production, and longevity are rivaled only by Albert Pujols. He's hit over .330 four times and finished with an OPS over 1.000 three different times. He is completely free of steroid suspicion, and his completion of the Triple Crown in 2012 gives him an accomplishment baseball hadn't seen in 45 years.
The Argument Against: Cabrera has been an average to below-average defender for the majority of his career. He also doesn't have the traditional benchmarks of 3,000 hits and 500 homeruns, though he should easily reach both by during the 2020 next season.
Verdict: The problem for Cabrera will be separating himself from other dominant hitters of his era. He lacks the raw numbers and championships of Pujols, the flash and defensive impact of Mike Trout, and the iconic folklore status of David Ortiz. Will he be seen as good enough to leap frog the other good players of his era?
The Argument For: Ichiro is one of the best contact hitters in the history of the game, topping a .300 batting average and 200 hits in each of his first TEN major leagues seasons. He led MLB in hits SEVEN times and his first sub-.300 season came at age 37 (he hit .272). That combined with his prolific base stealing, electric arm, and absurd hit totals make him all but a lock for first-ballot inclusion.
The Argument Against: Ichiro lacks the traditional power numbers associated with corner outfielders in a power era, and isn't credited with the 1,000+ hits he tallied in Japan before joining MLB at age 27. His lack of homeruns and RBI might hurt him if he's up against players like Albert Pujols, Miguel Cabrera, and Derek Jeter who boasts similar career averages but superior totals in those power categories.
Verdict: Timing will be key to Ichiro's HOF fate. While he's a safe bet to make it on his first ballot, a unanimous selection would probably require him to enter in a class absent of other no-brainer first-ballot candidates.
The Argument For: Just look at the image below of Pujols' first ten season with the St. Louis Cardinals. No explanation needed.
Those numbers aren't made up. The only other player with a 10-year statistical run like that is the Great Bambino himself. When your name is discussed in the same sentence with Babe Ruth, you're a strong candidate for unanimous Hall of Fame consideration.
The Argument Against: Former Cardinal Jack Clark accused Pujols of steroid use in 2013, but issued a public retraction a few months later confirming he had no actual knowledge of Pujols juicing. Pujols has managed to remain above the cloud of reasonable PED suspicion, but simply being a power guy during the tail end of the "Steroid Era" could be enough to keep him from unanimous selection.
Verdict: Pujols' unrivaled decade-plus mixture of power, average, and production make him a STRONG candidate for unanimous HOF inclusion. Throw in his plus defense (two Gold Gloves) and two World Championships and it's hard to make a compelling case for leaving him off ANY Hall of Fame Ballot.
The Argument For: Jeter spent 20 years as the face of the most popular team in baseball and an integral part of FIVE World Series championships. He is beloved and respected league-wide and remained productive well into his mid-thirties (led the league in hits at age 38). Jeter had eight seasons with over 200 hits, seven seasons batting .320 or higher, and 13 seasons scoring 100+ runs. His defense was often more flash than substance, but his trademark jump throw, his winning pedigree, his clutch play in the postseason, and his remarkable consistency are impossible to ignore.
The Argument Against: Defensive metrics aren't kind to Jeter, meaning his five Gold Gloves resulted mostly from reputation and somewhat inflate the legacy of someone who was a pretty average defender for most his career.
Verdict: It’s hard to find any conceivable argument against Jeter being a first-ballot Hall of Fame and his mind-boggling consistency and longevity buils a strong case for his unanimous inclusion.
Honorable Mentions: Mike Trout, Robinson Cano, Craig Kimbrel
Who did we miss? Let us know in the comments!
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