After limping into the All-star break with a 44-45 record, the Braves started the second half by stubbing their toe in a 7-6 extra innings loss that underscored many of the same problems that have plagued the team all year. The Atlanta bullpen blew another late inning lead (Chris Martin gave up a 6-4 advantage in the bottom of the 7th) the Braves were unable to manage any late inning offense, and the team’s record in extra innings dropped to 2-7.
Catastrophic injuries, offensive underperformance, and a maddeningly inconsistent bullpen have made the Braves one of the most disappointing teams in baseball to this point. Despite a run differential of +18 and an expected record of 47-43, the team currently sits four games out of first place in the surprisingly mediocre NL East and famously has never topped .500. With 72 games left to play, there are three possible paths Atlanta can take during the remainder of the 2021 season.
Option #1 - Full-out Fire Sale
The Braves have done little to give fans confidence in them being any more than mediocre this season. The bullpen has been a massive disappointment (2nd in losses, 21st in ERA), the Braves have struggled to hit with runners in scoring position (15th in MLB), the roster has been massacred by major injuries, and the surprisingly good starting pitching is the only hope this team has of remaining competitive. Even if this version of the Braves DOES get it together and chase down the New York Mets for their fifth consecutive division title, there is little reason to hope or believe this team can score enough or protect leads well enough to make any sort of noise in the playoffs.
The thought of selling off pieces becomes even more viable when you consider the return the Braves might get from contending teams. Charlie Morton has been a horse in the postseason (as proven in his 2020 World Series run with the Tampa Bay Rays) and could command a handsome sum from contenders like the Padres or Brewers. Drew Smyly has not given up more than three runs since May 8, and has gone at least five innings with three or fewer runs allowed in five consecutive starts; could the Braves sell high on him and bring back a controllable contract or a solid prospect? Could Chris Martin provide a decent return for a team that needs a (usually) reliable lefty in their bullpen? Could Travis D’Arnaud provide value for a competitive club that needs depth at catcher? What would teams offer for Johan Camargo who is quietly on his way to making the AAA All-star game with a .305 batting average and an OPS of .901?
With the Braves languishing in mediocrity it’s easy to justify moving players like Morton or Smyly when their best work is regularly undone by a schizophrenic bullpen, and their innings could go to young arms in need of the experience like Kyle Muller, Bryse Wilson, and Kyle Wright. The Braves could elect to go the same route in the outfield by allowing Cristian Pache and Drew Waters to continue developing at the plate against actual big-league pitching in hopes of getting them ready for full-time duty in 2022.
Having said all that, the elephant in the room is the future of Freddie Freeman. Freeman -- currently in the middle of a torrid hot streak that has raised his average 40 points in the last five weeks -- could warrant a HUGE market as a 2-month rental for someone like the New York Yankees. He could undoubtedly return significant minor league capital, and a trade would protect the Braves in the event the 32-year reigning MVP chooses to test free agency for the first time in his 11-year career.
Freeman owns 10-and-5 rights (baseball's equivalent of a "no-trade clause") and the rumors are that he is completely off-the-table in trade discussions. That said, allowing the face of the franchise to walk this offseason while still in his prime is UNTENABLE, so would the Braves
be better served to cut their losses on the season and cash in on Freeman's market before the franchise icon enters the twilight of his career?
The ramifications for that stem far beyond this year as Freeman's leadership and popularity would be as difficult to replace as his elite offensive production and stellar glove. If the Braves feel like they are just a few healthy pieces away from contending in '22, a Freeman trade feels short-sighted. This move would undoubtedly split the fan base and to many would indicate a hard franchise reset as opposed the typical deadline shuffling customary for losing teams. If the franchise feels they can't re-sign Freeman or that he's showing signs of decline, Braves fans need to prepare for life without one of the best first basemen in baseball over the last decade.
Option #2 - Buy From the Bargain Bin and Hope for Better Health
The second option is for the Braves to continue to tinker around the edges of the roster by adding DFA players like Adam Eaton or replacement level starters like Joc Pederson and hope for a bump from the September call-ups and the returns of Travis D’Arnaud, Huascar Ynoa, and Ian Anderson. This would likely include adding at least one more outfielder or catcher as well as another bullpen arm (preferably left-handed).
The most likely outcome of this approach is remaining in baseball purgatory -- not exactly appealing for either fans or players. Adding more AAAA players to a roster already ripe with them likely won’t propel the team into first, and there is no reason for valuable assets like Charlie Morton to remain on a team that never tops .500 or wins more than four consecutive games.
Option #3 - Buy AND Sell While Trying to Remain Competitive
While optimistic fans have harped on the point that the Braves are only four games out of first place, the counter is that they lack the lineup and bullpen depth to even sniff a World Series berth. While that may be true on paper, the MLB playoffs don’t take place on paper. Flawed teams regularly upset teams with superior rosters (See: 2017-2019 Dodgers) and many fans seem to have forgotten that the 2020 Braves had an absolutely DREADFUL rotation before getting once in a lifetime performances from Bryse Wilson and Kyle Wright that helped propelled them to within one game of the World Series.
That’s not to say that lightning will strike twice -- you can’t project role players to have “once-in-a-lifetime” performances. But there is something to be said about getting into the dance and seeing what happens. The obvious difference is that the 2020 Braves were powered by TWO elite units -- a top-five bullpen and an all-time franchise offense -- while this unit is currently no better than mediocre in any phase of the game.
This option is the most complicated and difficult to navigate because it potentially sends mixed messages about your trajectory for the remainder of the season. Trading Charlie Morton seems like waving the white flag, but what if he brings back a high-level OF prospect to slot in with Ronald Acuna, Drew Waters, or Cristian Pache in the near future? What if the Braves can get a quality starting outfielder like Starling Marte, Kyle Schwarber, Joey Gallo, or Trey Mancini without giving up top prospects like Pache, Waters, or Langeliers? What if you can turn Travis D’Arnaud into a bullpen arm that remains under contract past 2021? Those are all options that would immediately improve your team while still preserving your future.
In this scenario the hope is that with Freddie Freeman finally back in MVP form, Austin Riley & Ozzie Albies on pace for career years, and D’Arnaud and Huascar Ynoa on the mend the Braves could piece together a three or four week run that allows them to steal another division championship and give their best “Rocky” impersonation in the playoffs. It’s not hard to see a world in which the Acuna-less Braves offense is carried by Freeman and Albies while Ynoa and Ian Anderson provide lights-out frontline pitching that gives Atlanta a fighting chance to upset an unproven club like San Francisco or San Diego in the wildcard round.
Conclusion
As the Braves continue to wallow in mind-numbing mediocrity one thing is clear -- this roster CANNOT remain as it is. Whether they buy, sell, or some mixture of both the Braves must either make moves to win now or set themselves up for the future with prospects and controllable contracts.
Which route do YOU prefer for them to take?
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