Finally, it's over.
The first year with a hard-fast trade deadline came to a close with a few surprises. No one saw Zack Greinke joining the Astros to create a ridiculously dangerous rotation in H-town. Nor did anyone see the Mets acquiring a starter when they're (a relatively distant) 4.0 games back in the wild card race. But as the trade deadline often teaches us, we should expect the unexpected.
As the rumor mill shuts down shop until November, we here at Title Run are ready to give you a quick recap of the Braves' trade deadline deals.
The Predictions
The Braves needed:
A frontline ace. Looking for a Madison Bumgarner (postseason beast) or former Brave Mike Minor (leads all MLB pitchers in WAR). Braves would have to give up a top pitching prospect to get them, probably Kyle Wright or Bryce Wilson.
A top-level reliever or closer. The Braves have long been connected with Giants closer Will Smith, especially in a mega-deal package with Madison Bumgarner.
Another bullpen arm. What did you expect me to say? The Braves went from one of the best bullpens in June to the second-highest ERA since the All-Star game.
The Braves could trade away any players not named Freddie Freeman or Ronald Acuña, but the obvious pieces would be:
Ender Inciarte. His defense is stellar, but his bat is no longer valuable at the top of the lineup, and Acuña was more than serviceable in center field in Inciarte's absence.
Mike Foltynewicz. He's had a rough year, and his emotional issues continue to linger. But for an opposing team, he can throw some serious heat in a StatCast/sabermetric-crazed era, and he's only one year removed from being an All-Star.
Kevin Gausman. He's back from the Injured List, but he still won't throw a curveball to save his life. As long as teams continue feasting off his fastball-changeup combination, other GM's won't be interested.
Anyone in the farm system. Come on, it's the trade deadline; every player under 25 was brought up in negotiations.
The Curveballs
While we don't know the specifics, Nick Markasis' injury definitely changed negotiations. Surprisingly, Adam Duvall and Ender Inciarte's inspired play changed those negotiations right back as they freed up Anthopolous to re-focus on bolstering the pitching staff.
Who could have predicted the Giants would go 19-6 in July and move to only 2.5 games back from a Wildcard spot? Bumgarner and Smith's price tags went up every day over the final month before the trade deadline, and with this being Bruce Bochy's last year, the Giants evidently decided to make a run for the playoffs. It's not an even-numbered year, so the Giants aren't wining the World Series anyway.
The Result
The Braves traded for three right-handed relief pitchers: Shane Greene from the Detroit Tigers, Mark Melancon from the San Francisco Giants, and Chris Martin from the Texas Rangers.
The Braves also traded for John Ryan Murphy from the Diamondbacks in exchange for cash considerations. Murphy will almost certainly be sent to Triple-A Gwinnett, but could spend some time with the big league club when rosters expand on September 1.
Chad Sobotka, A.J. Minter, and Jeremy Walker were sent down to Triple-A Gwinnett, and Luiz Gohara was designated for assignment.
The Breakdown
No, the Braves didn't pick up a starter in Mike Minor, Madison Bumgarner, Noah Syndergaard, or Zack Greinke, and as much as Braves country and Anthopolous wanted a starter, the cost was just too high at this deadline. But let's not lose sight of the fact that the Braves traded for three arms from three different teams without losing anyone from the big league ballclub or any of their top 10 prospects.
If the Braves advance to the NLCS, this will go down as one of the best trade deadlines the Braves have ever had.
Let's break it down, starting with the first trade.
> Braves get RHP Chris Martin, Rangers get RHP Kolby Allard
Martin is having somewhat of a breakout year. He's appeared in 38 games and owns a respectable 3.08 ERA, and that ERA drops to a minuscule 1.45 since May 24.
The good news: Martin has scattered 43 strikeouts across 38.0 innings of work and only surrendered 4 walks.
The bad news: He's given up 35 hits across those 38 innings and surrendered 8 home runs. Not exactly the combo you want for a playoff run, but his walk to strikeout ratio more than makes up for it.
Martin will be a free agent after the season, but the Braves don't mind the rental in this instance. After 20 starts, Allard sports a 4.17 ERA at AAA Gwinnett, dropping him further down the prospect rankings yet again.
> Braves get RHP Mark Melancon, Giants get RHP Dan Winkler and RHP Tristan Beck
The oldest of the three at 35, Melancon is a former All-Star closer who waived his no-trade clause to play for the Braves. Similar to Martin, Melancon has a 3.50 ERA in 43 appearances with 44 strikeouts and 16 walks. Not great, but not bad either.
Melancon has only one save this year, but he led the National League with 51 saves as a member of the Pittsburgh Pirates in 2015, and he racked up 47 saves a year later between Pittsburgh and Washington. We'll have to see how Snitker utilizes him, but Melancon projects, like the other two newly acquired pieces—to be a late-game pitcher.
As for Melancon's contract, if the Braves don't trade him this winter, they'll be on the hook for his $14 million salary for the final year of his deal. Don't be surprised if Braves owners Liberty Media turn into Scrooge McDuck over the holidays and order Anthopolous to trade the aging reliever.
> Braves get RHP Shane Greene, Tigers get LHP Joey Wentz and LF Travis Demeritte
Greene is fourth in the American League with 22 saves for a Tigers team that's only won 32 games (worst in the majors). He throws upper 90s with a devastating 90+ cutter. Greene owns a microscopic 1.18 ERA (second in the majors) in 38 games with 43 strikeouts and 12 walks. Perhaps most impressive: he's only given up five earned runs.
The Expectation
We don't have a lot of information from the Braves front office or coaching staff as to how they'll utilize the new pieces, but it's pretty much a no-brainer to slot Shane Greene into the closing role. After that, it's likely that Mark Melancon takes the setup role, while Chris Martin and Luke Jackson primarily work the 6th and 7th innings.
If the Braves can shorten the game like this, they have the potential (and the luxury) to limit youngsters Mike Soroka and Max Fried pitch to five inning stars: enough for them to both earn the win and keep their workload down.
The Feedback
What do you think? Did the Braves get it right this year? Sound off in the comments!
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