Which team currently has the largest window to compete for a Super Bowl?
Last week NFL Network’s Gil Brandt made a list of teams with the longest windows in which to be able to compete for a Superbowl. He defined it as “the longest period of Super Bowl contention -- from right now moving forward.” His list included:
Philadelphia Eagles
St. Louis Rams
San Francisco 49ers
New Orleans Saints
Jacksonville Jaguars
Pittsburgh Steelers
New England Patriots
Surprised? Me too. Dumbfounded was more like it. If it was a list of teams most likely to compete for the Super Bowl NEXT year, I would understand -- but it’s a list of teams with the largest window to compete for a Super Bowl. Did he not read the title of his own article?? New Orleans’ quarterback is 39. New England’s is 40, and they just traded his heir apparent to the 49er’s. Pittsburgh’s QB is only 35, but has repeatedly teased retirement. The 49ers won six games last year.
How is a six-win team considered to be in the midst of their Super Bowl window?!?!? Why are teams with 40-ish year old quarterbacks considered to have a long championship windows? This is madness I tell you, MADNESS. Let’s try again with some clearly established criteria and some common sense. The criteria I’ll use to evaluate teams are:
Coach
QB - Skill level, Age, Contract
Roster - Age/Contract situation of their best players
Record - How Good are they right now?
The best formula for sustained success is still building through the draft. Hit on your draft picks and hope your best players get good while still on their rookie contracts. If your QB peaks while he’s on a rookie deal then you’ve really struck gold; you can use your cap space to pile up roster talent until your QB’s big pay day comes due (see Seattle Seahawks 2013-2015, Philadelphia Eagles 2017). Most of the teams on this list have followed that very formula to success. The team at #5 is the lone exception.
6. Tennessee Titans
Coach - It’s pretty much impossible to assess a head coach who’s only the held the position for about two weeks. Mike Vrabel is an unknown, and that limits the Titans from being higher on this list.
QB - Marcus Mariota struggled this season and his TD/Int numbers saw a huge dip from 26 TD/9 INT in 2016 to 13 TD/15 INT in 2017. Not good. Mariota made some game-changing plays in the Wild Card game comeback against Kansas City and was solid in the Divisional Round against New England where the Titans were totally outmatched. All indicators point to him being a more-than-competent starting QB with the talent to be elite with the right pieces around him.
Roster - All of the Titans’ offensive starters are on rookie or bargain contracts with Mariota leading the way at a modest $7.7 million. Their offensive line is super young, and they have promising young skill players in Derrick Henry and Corey Davis. They have a lot of money tied up in a not-so-young front seven, but they’ll get about $14 million in cap space when Brian Orakpo & Derrick Morgan’s deals expire next year. They’re not old on defense, but they’ll need some help at pass rush in the next few years if they’re going to remain a top-half of the league unit. It helps that All-Pro safety Kevin Byard is still on his rookie deal as well.
Record - 10-8; Lost 35-14 to New England in the Divisional Round
Verdict: The Titans exceeded expectations this year with their upset of Kansas City in the Wild Card round. The pieces are in place on offense and they have a solid, aging-but-not-quite-old defense. If Vrabel turns into a quality head coach the arrow on this team is pointed WAY up. They have the salary cap space and young talent to compete with team #2 near the top of the AFC.
5. Atlanta Falcons
Coach - Dan Quinn has coached in three of the last five Super Bowls and in three years has transformed the Falcons into a top-10 defense and posted back-to-back 10+ wins seasons.
QB - Matt Ryan took a step back from his 2016 MVP numbers, but his yards (4,095) and completion percentage (64%) were right around his career averages. His interceptions rose from seven to 12 (due partly to a league record five deflection INTs), and he saw a dip in TDs and explosive passing plays in his first year under new offensive coordinator Steve Sarkisian. All that said, he’s still in his QB prime at 32 and more than capable of getting the Falcons to another Super Bowl with the current talent on their roster.
Roster - Two of their 2016 draft picks made the Pro Bowl this year (Keanu Neal & Deion Jones), and eight of their defensive starters (including 2016 sack king Vic Beasley) are on rookie deals. EIGHT. They have to make decisions on Ricardo Allen, Dontari Poe, and Adrian Clayborn but they have both depth and youth all over their defense. They have the second highest offensive payroll in the NFL, most of it tied up in the skill positions, but eight of their starters are under 30 and their core of Alex Mack, Ryan, Julio Jones, Mohammed Sanu, and Devonta Freeman are showing no signs of decline.
Record - 11-7: Lost 15-10 to the Eagles in the Divisional Round.
Verdict: The Falcons have arguably the best roster in the NFC at the moment. They won’t be able to re-sign ALL of their young defensive talent, but their uber-talented young core resembles the early days of the L.O.B. Quinn helped build in Seattle. If the offense returns to anything close to its 2016 form they’ll remain in the Super Bowl conversation until they start losing studs from the 2015-2016 drafts to free agency.
4. Dallas Cowboys
Coach - Jason Garrett can be a rather polarizing figure, and there are a wide array of opinions on his coaching acumen. In his seven full seasons leading the Cowboys he’s had just one losing season but also just one playoff win. He was the 2016 NFL coach of the year and followed that up with a 9-7 record during a tumultuous season that included numerous injuries and a six game suspension to his All-Pro running back. While his playoff resume is underwhelming, he seems to be trending up as a coach averaging 9.5 wins over the last 4 seasons.
QB - Dak Prescott, The 2016 Pro Bowler and Offensive Rookie of the Year is making PEANUTS on a 4th round contract that will pay him a little over $700K next season. He was asked to do a lot more this year with Ezekiel Elliot’s suspension and the once dominant offensive line starting to show very visible cracks (See: Eight-sack game vs the Falcons). This resulted in his TD’s, passing yards, completion percentage, and QB rating all taking slight dips, but still staying very much in the respectable range. The bottom line is that he appears to be a long term answer at QB and not just a flash-in-the-pan, and he’s playing on what is possibly the best value contract in entire league.
Roster - Dallas has a ton of money tied up in their once-elite offensive line, and while that unit underperformed this past year, all of their starters are now healthy and still 27-years old or younger. Ezekiel Elliott and Dak Prescott are playing on rookie deals and Dez Bryant appears to be slowing down, but is still a viable #1 option.
The Cowboys were surprisingly good on defense, ranking 8th in yards and 13th in scoring, and doing it with the NFL’s 28th highest defensive payroll. They are super-young in the secondary, LB Jaylon Smith appeared to be fully recovered from his catastrophic knee injury, and they still have two years to figure out what they have in Randy Gregory -- the 2015 first round pick who was suspended for the entire 2017 season. The bottom line is that if they can replace the aging, oft-injured Sean Lee and re-sign Demarcus Lawrence, they’re set up to have a really good young core on both sides of the ball.
Record - 9-7; 2nd in NFC East, Missed the playoffs
Verdict: Dak + Zeke + young, underrated defense = Lots of winning in 2018 and beyond.
3. Los Angeles Rams
Coach - Sean McVay is the youngest NFL Coach of the Year in history after taking the Rams from four wins to 11 wins with basically the same roster.
QB - Jared Goff saw an ENORMOUS jump in year two improving his QBR by 30 points, posting a passer rating of 100.5, throwing 28 TDs, and even sneaking his way into the Pro Bowl. The 23-year old seems to be thriving in McVay’s system with a salary of just $2.8 million next year.
Roster - The 2015 Offensive Rookie of the Year (Todd Gurley) and the 2017 Defensive player of the year (Aaron Donald) both played this past season on rookie contracts. The Rams currently have two players on the roster who are over 30. TWO. Gurley led the NFL in TDs and finished second in MVP voting with a salary of $1.7 million. That’s how you do it.
Record - 11-6; Lost to Falcons in Wild Card round 26-13.
Verdict: Good young coach, rapidly improving young QB, dominant RB, and the league's #1 offense. On defense their front seven commands a lot of money, but it’s full of in-their-prime veterans that are on the right side of 30. If they can draft well in the secondary, they will have as complete a roster as anyone in the NFC and a long window to legitimately compete for a ring.
2. Jacksonville Jaguars
Coach - Doug Marrone is still somewhat of an unknown. He’s only had three full seasons as a head coach with two different teams, but has winning records in two of them. He brought the Bills their first winning season in 10 years and seems to have turned around a laughably bad Jacksonville franchise in just two year. The verdict is still out on him, but the early returns seem indicate he really does know what he’s doing.
QB - The Jags won a great deal of games in SPITE of the Jeckyll-n-Hyde play of Blake Bortles this season. Nothing illustrates this better than this year’s playoff run. Bortles had more rushing yards than passing yards (88 to 87) in a PUTRID wild card game against Buffalo, but looked like the 35 TD, 2015 version of himself in an outstanding, mistake-free, 293 yard performance in the AFC Championship game. Bortles isn’t consistently great, but he’s only 25, and when he’s competent the Jags are good enough everywhere else to win at a high level. Bortles is scheduled to make $19 million a year in 2018 which is a relative bargain for a starting QB in today’s NFL.
Roster - Leonard Fournette (RB), Jalen Ramsey (CB), Myles Jack (LB), Dante Fowler (DE), Michael Bennett (DT), and Dede Westbrook (WR), Marquise Lee (WR) are all on rookie contracts. AJ Bouye, Marcell Dareus, Tashaun Gipson, and Malik Jackson are all locked up long term and all under the age of 30. Barring catastrophic injuries, the Jacksonville defense is going to be elite for the forseeable future. The biggest concern is whether to re-sign former Pro-Bowler Allen Robinson coming off an ACL tear or keep 26-year old Marquise Lee who had a breakout 50-catch season in 2017. They also have to make a decision on 33-year old veteran Paul Posluszny.
Record - 12-7;Lost to New England in the AFC Championship game 24-20.
Verdict: The Jaguars have strung together 3-4 really solid drafts. They’ve hit on all of their high draft picks and the results have shown on the field. If Blake Bortles returns to anything close to his 2015 form, he and that young elite defense should keep the Jags as a playoff fixture for the next several years.
1. Philadelphia Eagles
The Eagles have been able to follow the Seahawks formula to a tee, and they reaped the benefits this year.
Coach - Second-year coach Doug Pedersen just led them to a Super Bowl victory where he dialed up a masterful 41-point offensive performance against a Bill Belichick defense...with a backup quarterback. That’s pretty much an automatic check mark in the “Is he a good coach?” column.
QB - Their 25-year old QB finished 3rd in MVP voting and set the franchise record for TD passes -- in just 13 games. He’s peaking while still on a rookie deal that makes him just the 12th highest paid player on the Eagle’s roster.
Roster - Nelson Agholor (WR), Derek Barnett (DE), Ronald Darby (CB), Jay Ajayi (RB), Carson Wentz (QB), Jalen Mills (CB), Corey Clement (RB), and Jake Elliot (K) were key contributors who all played on rookie contracts. That means Philadelphia can continue to pay one of the best offensive lines in the NFL and keep quality depth on one of the deepest defensive lines in the NFL. (Their offensive line is #1 in salary and their defensive line is #3). Eleven of their 13 highest-paid players are under 30.
Record -- 16-3; Super Bowl Champs
Verdict: The Eagles have all the ingredients for a Seahawks-like run of dominance in the NFC. The scariest thing is that their playoff run showed their roster is good enough to compete with other elite teams WITHOUT their MVP-caliber quarterback. No team appears better equipped to sustain high-level winning than Philly.
Honorable mentions:
Minnesota -- If Minnesota figures out their QB situation, there’s no reason they shouldn’t be a contender for the next several years. But when ALL THREE of your capable starting QBs are free agents you’re the definition of “unstable” at that position.
Houston - Had Houston been a .500 team, they’d have made the list. Deshaun Watson looks like a future star and J.J. Watt, DeAndre Hopkins, and Jadeveon Clowney are All-NFL caliber talents. The problem is that only two of them were healthy for most of this year and the Texans won just four games.
Kansas City - Great coach, a good, but aging defense, and an EXTREMELY young offense with two Pro Bowl position players (Kareem Hunt & Travis Kelce). If Patrick Mahomes is good at all they may finally be able to break the Divisional Round curse that’s haunted them since Andy Reid arrived. IF.
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