In January a record-setting 135 college football players opted to forego their remaining eligibility to pursue a chance in the NFL (up from last year’s previous record of 119 players). Of the 119 early entrants from last year, 37 (31.1%) went undrafted; the same rate for this season would produce 42 undrafted early entrants.
There are a lot of complicated factors that go into the decision making process when declaring early, but the number of early entrants keeps rising while the number of draft rounds and roster spots does not. In addition to the 40-45 early entrants that may go undrafted this year, there will be another 20-30 players drafted in rounds 6 and 7. While being drafted is certainly an accomplishment, these are the players that find themselves fighting for roster spots. Should they suffer an injury or struggle early on, many will get their walking papers and be out of the NFL before finishing their first contract.
Financially, the real goal is to get the guaranteed money. This is done through first round rookie contracts and/or earning a second contract -- a deal determined on the free-ish market where a player has some say in where they go, and teams pay handsomely for a player’s prime years. By forfeiting eligibility as fringe NFL prospects, many players get paid one year earlier but also cost themselves millions in the long run.
The University of Georgia had nine players participate in the recently concluded NFL combine, four of whom chose to leave school early. The five with exhausted eligibility also found themselves facing the early entry decision in 2018 before opting to stay. Before taking a look at each of these players, what are some general rules for leaving early?
The Rules
When to GO
Guaranteed 1st round pick => Guaranteed $$$
Guaranteed 2nd round pick => High likelihood of getting a 2nd contract
Running Backs (almost) always => Short shelf life, chance to limit number of college hits
Players coming off productive seasons AND who will test well at the combine => Stock is as high as it will get
When to STAY
Projected late round picks => If you’re going to fight for a roster spot you might as well be as good/mature as possible
Players with have only ONE year of high production AND will not test well at the combine => Stock seems high in January but can fluctuate heavily
Players that just played under a 1st year coach => Team success influences individual success and draft status, so don’t pay for the transition year
It’s worth noting that “guaranteed” first round picks are really guys projected in the top 10 or 15, and “guaranteed” second round picks are guys that will likely go in the 1st or early in the 2nd. Most years there are 75 to 100 players labeled as possible 1st or 2nd round picks, and obviously, all of these players are not selected that early. Of course, some players will find themselves fitting some of the GO rules and some of the STAY rules, at which point the decision becomes difficult. So, on to some specific local players.
Dawgs in the Draft
Early Entrants
Mecole Hardman
After moving from CB to WR, Hardman debuted with 418 yards and 4 TDs as a sophomore, including a huge performance in the national title game against Alabama. His junior year produced 543 yards and 7 TDs, up from the previous year but certainly not monster numbers. The production was pretty good, considering the run-first approach on offense. Hardman would have been projected to get around 800 yards and 8 TDs as a senior, so increased productivity would have likely helped his draft stock. Only 2 years of playing WR means a final season at Georgia probably would have produced refined route running, etc. that would have also helped. However, Hardman can fly, and he showed that speed at the combine clocking a 4.33 40-yard dash. A good combine performance isn’t everything, but it's likely enough to keep him out of the later rounds (though a senior year would have pushed him higher).
Verdict: PUSH
Elijah Holyfield
Injuries to RB1 Deandre Swift and highly touted freshman Zamir White allowed for a large uptick in carries for Holyfield, and he took advantage to the tune of 1,000 yards at 6.4 yds/carry. He would be unlikely to see as many carries as a senior, but he would also have a chance to display some receiving ability (seven catches in three years doesn’t help his draft stock in a passing driven NFL) and continue to work on his blocking -- both things that help keep RBs on NFL rosters. The 4.78 time in the 40-yard dash doesn’t help his stock either; on the flip-side his game isn’t based on speed and he wouldn’t run any faster a year from now either.
Verdict: PUSH
Isaac Nauta
This is probably the clearest decision of the four. Nauta possesses the proper size/strength to hold up as a blocker, but 900 yards and eight TD in three years isn’t exactly elite production in the passing game. Average production to go along with a disastrous combine (he ran a 4.91 40-yard dash and finished at or near the bottom of the TE group in every test but the bench press) is not ideal. Nauta drastically improved those numbers at UGA's pro days (as fast as a 4.71 on some watches) but it's uncertain how much that will do to rehabilitate his draft stock.
In an NFL that values flexibility and creating match-up problems with the TE, Nauta simply does not fit the profile of a starting NFL player. Returning for a senior season would have at least given him a chance to produce a better body of work to keep his stock afloat amidst poor testing numbers. As it stands, Nauta is just hoping to get drafted and make an NFL team.
Verdict: STAY
Riley Ridley
Ridley possesses the highest draft stock of these early entrants, with many people expecting him to go in the first 2 rounds. He lead the team with 570 yards and nine TD (again, this was a very run-heavy team), but his pedestrian 40-time has threatened to push him down in the draft. On one hand, Ridley is a fairly polished route runner when compared to other prospects; on the other hand, he could have come back expecting about 900 yards and nine TD as a senior. While his mediocre 40 time (4.58) is currently threatening to push him out of the 2nd round, a big final year could have provided a buffer for his combine performance. While he likely would have been drafted a round earlier next year, Ridley should still be drafted in the first 2 or 3 rounds and be virtually guaranteed a roster spot.
Verdict: Go
The decision making for this year’s junior class was a bit iffy. Last year’s team had a lot of collective success which contributed to a number of juniors having difficult decisions. Roquan Smith chose to go pro -- 100% a good decision. Others like Deandre Baker and D’Andre Walker chose to return. How did those decisions pan out?
Deandre Baker
After a stellar junior season and some round one hype, Baker surprised a lot of people by returning for his senior season. He concluded a second consecutive season without allowing a TD while winning the Jim Thorpe award (top DB). His combine performance was not a complete flop, but an average 40 time (4.52) certainly did not help his case. Fair or not, the top-end speed will likely keep Baker from being selected top 15, but his stellar production over multiple years will keep him in the 1st round. Had he left after his junior year a slow 40 time would have likely pushed him down a round or two and cost him a lot of guaranteed money.
Verdict: Stay
Jonathan Ledbetter
Ledbetter stands a good chance of being a solid pro for many years with a very workmanlike game. He does his job play in and play out, but he doesn’t produce a ton of splash plays. Projected as a late round pick whether it was last year or this year, returning for his senior season provided the opportunity for continued improvement. It may not seem like much, but this decisions means Ledbetter will be one year older and more experienced as he tries to make a roster and find playing time AND when he tries to get that meaningful second contract.
Verdict: Stay
D’Andre Walker
Backing up Lorenzo Carter as a junior didn’t allow Walker to put up huge numbers, but he did show some flashes in limited snaps. Walker is not the most polished pass rusher from a technical standpoint, but a solid senior season showed that his productivity wasn’t a fluke, which likely helped his draft stock. The hangup for Walker is that he sustained an injury in the SEC Championship game in December. He was recovering and unable to participate in the NFL combine, which is unfortunate as Walker likely would have tested well (6-2, 250, 4.6 in the 40). Since he is buoyed by better production and will likely be able to perform well in individual workouts, Walker probably still made the right decision.
Verdict: Stay
Final verdict? Someone from this year’s group probably should have come back. Any of the three receiving threats could have come back as a (the) top pass-catching threat with expectations of a big senior season to boost their NFL stock. That said, the biggest knock on Holyfield, Nauta, and Ridley is their speed/overall athleticism, and that’s not going to change in a year's time. In the end, they all decided to err on the side of getting paid now.
Last year saw one former Bulldog rightfully go pro early and three guys rightfully stay for another year. The aforementioned rules are general rules and are always subject to a player’s life situations. Sometimes players will have difficult life situations like ill family members in need, pregnancy, or trying to break a cycle of poverty. This can make it impractical to wait another year even though it would maximize long term earning. Time (and the sometimes random nature of the NFL draft) will tell which of these were truly the best decisions.
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