By: David + Scott the Statissassin
The Atlanta Falcons have a Vic Beasley problem.
After racking up a league-leading 15.5 sacks and six forced fumbles in 2016, Beasley seemed well on his way to becoming one of the league’s elite pass rushers. Instead, Beasley’s production dropped off a cliff -- he has just 10 sacks and 39 tackles in the two seasons since his breakout 2016 campaign. Those numbers aren’t exactly befitting of a top-10 draft pick set to make $12.8 million next season (if the Falcons exercise his fifth-year option). But when you look at Atlanta’s roster, the list of players with double-digit sack seasons consists of...well, Vic Beasley.
While he’s far too expensive to bring back at that salary, what other options do the Falcons have? The franchise is still waiting for 2017 first-round pick Takk McKinley to turn his relentless energy into actual production, and while stud defensive tackle Grady Jarrett is among the league's best, he doesn’t provide the gaudy sack number of the Aaron Donald’s and Geno Atkins’ of the world.
So what's the problem? Why isn’t Vic better? Why isn’t he more consistent? What did the Falcons miss in their pre-draft evaluations of him?
Did the Falcons Miss in their Evaluation?
For starters, let’s take a look at Beasley's pre-draft measurables compared with those of two other successful NFL pass rushers:
A - Vic Beasley, 2015
B - Bruce Irvin, 2012
C - Von Miller, 2011
Interesting, isn't it? Here is Vic’s pre-draft scouting report from NFL.com:
STRENGTHS
Explosive athlete who's always first off the snap. True edge bender who can torque hips and shoulders to turn corner. Has ankle flexion to dip and slalom around corner at difficult angles to block. Former running back with quick feet and fluid hips. Able to change directions and burst to target. Possesses potentially lethal spin move, but doesn't use it enough. Primarily a hand-in-dirt rusher but has played standing, too. Able to drop into space. Solid instincts and outstanding closing burst. Quick hands to swat initial punch. Hands will get even better and could become a major weapon with more coaching. Can embarrass tackles who lunge and miss.
WEAKNESSES
High cut with narrow waist and thin legs. Needs to add more bulk. Unlikely to convert speed to power against NFL tackles. Wins with athleticism on majority of his sacks. Rarely transitions from speed rush to spin as an instinctual pass-rush counter. Lacks ideal arm length. Too often content to stay blocked if pass rush stalls out. Needs to shed blocks more consistently against run. Good football character, but scouts are concerned about a lack of alpha-dog tenacity.
BOTTOM LINE
Projects as 3-4 outside linebacker. Considered one of the best pure edge rushers in the draft, but needs more sophistication to his approach. Has speed and explosion to become an absolute menace for a creative defensive coordinator. High-impact talent but needs to crank up competitive nature in order to reach his potential.
Wow. It’s scary how accurate this scouting report turned out to be. If anything sums up Vic Beasley, it’s these two statements:
“...Scouts are concerned about a lack of alpha-dog tenacity...High-impact talent but needs to crank up competitive nature in order to reach his potential.”
It seems there was plenty of reason to believe Vic could become a high-level NFL pass rusher. He checked all of the boxes physically and had the college production to match it. That said, Scott the Statissassin notes that Beasley wasn’t the only underwhelming edge player from the 2015 draft:
2015 1st & 2nd Rd Pass Rushers (in the order they were drafted)
Dante Fowler, Jr. - 16 sacks/18 TFL
Vic Beasley - 29.5 sacks/28 TFL
Bud Dupree - 20 sacks/30 TFL
Shane Ray - 14 sacks/15 TFL
Preston Smith - 24.5 sacks/29 TFL
Nate Orchard - 5 sacks/9 TFL
Markus Golden - 19 sacks/26 TFL
Randy Gregory - 7 sacks/11 TFL
Frank Clark - 35 sacks/35 TFL
Surprisingly, Beasley has been one of the most productive pass-rushers in what can only be described as a woefully underwhelming 2015 draft class. But while the numbers look solid, a closer look reveals that even his stellar 2016 was likely a bit of a fluke.
The 2016 Sack Party
According to Pro Football Focus, Beasley recorded his 15.5 sacks on just 56 total pressures. That means he got home on 27.7% of his pressures, astronomically higher than the league average rate of 15%. That makes Beasley’s 2016 sack total a complete outlier and HIGHLY unlikely to be duplicated. To provide further context, 2016 NFL Defensive Player of the Year Khalil Mack netted 11 sacks on 96 total pressures (11.4%), and 2015 DPOY J.J. Watt had 17.5 sacks and 50 QB hits. That means Watt had nearly as many QB HITS as Beasley had total pressures. That’s not to completely dismiss Beasley’s outstanding 2016 performance, but it does mean Falcons fans probably shouldn’t hold their breath expecting more 15-sack seasons in the future. Of course, all of this leads back to the original question -- why hasn’t Beasley been better?
One of the (many) things that separates the league’s three consistently elite edge rushers (Von Miller, Khalil Mack, & J.J. Watt) is their ability to win with more than athleticism. All three have elite take-off but also bring AT LEAST one other elite tool to the table.
Watt combines his other-worldly power with textbook leverage and technical precision with his hands...
Mack has one of the best bull rushes in the game…
... and Miller probably has the best inside spin move the league has seen since prime Dwight Freeney.
As the NFL.com scouting reports says, Beasley MUST add to his toolbox. A look at his 2016 highlights confirms this -- he's a one-trick pony -- makes plays with this speed. The problem is that when his speed is neutralized he hasn’t developed other weapons he can use to consistently make an impact.
What is Vic Beasley Worth?
The best place to start is by comparing Beasley to players with similar resumes. Let’s look at the average annual salary of healthy edge rushers (DE or OLB) no longer on rookie contracts that have averaged roughly eight sacks season from 2016-2019 (about 24 sacks total). Beasley has totaled 25.5 sacks during that time.
Mario Addison (29.5 sacks) - $7.5 million/ 3 years
Carlos Dunlap (23.5 sacks) - $13.5 milion/ 3 years
Melvin Ingram (25.5 sacks) - $16 million/ 4 years
Olivier Vernon (22.5 sacks) - $17 million/ 5 years
Everson Griffen (26.5 sacks) - $14.5 million/ 4 years
Michael Bennet (22.5 sacks) - $10.16 million/ 3 years
The average salary ends up being about $13.1 million per season -- more than the $12.8 million fifth-year option on Beasley’s current contract. Yikes.
Let’s drop the bar a bit further -- healthy pass rushers no longer on rookie contracts that have averaged roughly five sacks a season (about 10 total) over the last two years. Beasley totaled 10 sacks in 2017 and 2018. (For the record, this was like looking for a needle in a haystack -- some of the players included were a bit of a stretch.)
Jabaal Sheard (11 sacks) - $8.5 million/ 3 years
Tyrone Crawford (9.5 sacks) - $9 million / 5 years
Trent Murphy (13 sacks) - $7.5 million / 3 years
Alex Okafor (8.5 sacks) - $5.8 million / 2 years
The average salary of $7.7 million a year sounds much more palatable -- for the Falcons that is. The problem is that none of the players above were first round draft picks, led the NFL in sacks, or been selected to the Pro Bowl...and none are 26 years old.
That said, what’s a fair middle ground?
First, it seems beyond unlikely that Beasley would even begin to sniff that $12.8 million number on the open market. Second, modern NFL contracts always come down to guaranteed money; guaranteed money has super-ceded average salary in importance. Would Beasley accept more guaranteed money up front for a lower base salary? Perhaps something like a five-year deal with the first three years guaranteed at $9 million, and a team option for years three and four? Or perhaps a higher salary with less guaranteed money -- maybe split the difference between the two rates for an average salary of $10.3 million -- but with only the first year guaranteed? (Not a likely option).
Either way, It’s incredibly difficult to see the Falcons paying much more than $10 million or so for Beasley’s services in hopes he can recapture his 2016 magic. On the other hand, the team’s remaining edge rush options of Bruce Irvin and Takk McKinley have combined for ZERO double-digit sack totals in nine NFL seasons. While the 2019 draft is replete with elite defensive line prospects, the Falcons already have large voids to fill at defensive tackle and guard, and Beasley’s departure would create yet another gaping hole on their depth chart.
The Dilemma
So do you overpay Beasley and cross your fingers that you can squeeze another double-digit sack year out of him? Even if Beasley returns to peak form, overpaying him may mean losing the ability to keep the other three young Pro Bowl defenders coming up for new contracts. Grady Jarrett is expected to be paid like a top-five defensive tackle this offseason, and Deion Jones and Keanu Neal will both hit the end of their rookie contracts following the 2019 season (Neal has a fifth-year option). If it comes down to paying Beasley or ANY one of those three, Beasley will likely be looking for a new home.
If the Falcons cut bait they can use that $12.8 million to fill voids at other positions and hopefully draft his replacement. BUT that also means letting a 26-year old with Pro Bowl potential walk away with nothing to show for it. Failing to re-sign the No.8 pick means you swung and missed in a draft where Todd Gurley, Marcus Peters, and Landon Collins were still on the board. That's a tough pill to swallow for a coach and GM whose jobs may both hinge on the success of the 2019 season.
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