We all know how the story ends on Sunday. The Eagle's defense, grit, and running game keeps the Super Bowl close. Tom Brady faces constant pressure from Fletcher Cox & crew, keeping the Patriot’s offense from achieving sustained success and putting the Superbowl in doubt for the first 58 minutes or so. Philadelphia seems poised to accomplish the unthinkable deep into the fourth quarter.
Then it happens.
Vinatieri hits from 48 as time expires. John Kasay drills a late kickoff out-of-bounds. McNabb throws two picks in the last seven minutes. Malcolm Butler jumps a slant route on 2nd & Goal. A third down holding call takes the Falcons out of game-clinching field goal range.
You know it’s coming. You expect it.
The turn. That moment when the Patriots do Patriot things and leave their opponents full of frustration, disbelief, and “what-ifs” about the end of the game. The fans are left with angst over how close they were while also feeling foolish for ever believing they had a realistic chance of interrupting the most dominant dynastic run in NFL history.
The pattern is often the same. The Patriots offense is stymied by a dominant pass-rush that gets to Brady early and forces him off his spots and out-of-rhythm. The opponent racks up big yardage on offense but can’t get enough scores to pull completely away. The game is back-and-forth for the first three quarters. The Patriots force a late turnover to give Brady a chance. They abandon the run game, and #12 starts picking the opponent apart with clutch throws to his undersized 3rd down back (See: Kevin Faulk, Shane Vereen, Dion Lewis, et al.), and his plucky possession receiver (See: Deion Branch, Wes Welker, Julian Edelman, et al.). A crazy catch or a clutch field goal later and the Hoodie is on the victor’s stage showing emotions we all were pretty sure he didn’t have.
It’s inevitable right?
Right?!?!?
I mean, there WAS ‘08 and ‘12. Those did really happen. But let’s be honest, the history doesn’t look good. It seems like we're destined for the same song, sixth verse.
In the last 20 years, 10 Super Bowls have been decided by six points or less; seven involved New England. They’ve won their five Super Bowls by a total of just 19 points -- 3.8 points per game. But they don’t just win close -- they win in dramatic, gut-wrenching, heart-shattering fashion. New England won four of their Super Bowls in the last possession, including two on last second field goals, and one in overtime. Even their losses are agonizing. Their two losses to the Giants both came on game-winning TD's in the last minute of the game.
The formula for playing the Pats close is clear...pressure up front, efficient offense, no turnovers, and limited mistakes. Many teams have ridden that formula to almost-upsets against the #1 dynasty in pro sports (See: 2018 AFC Championship Game). But a win over the Pats takes the one thing that you can’t predict...luck. What else do you call this?
Or this?
I'll admit, there's more skill in the Manningham catch than the Tyree one...but come on. It's Eli Manning making these throws. The fact you got "good" Eli for an entire Super Bowl is lucky itself.
So go ahead and brace yourself Philly. I don’t know for sure what will happen on Sunday, but I do have a prediction...
Comment below and share your own story of heartbreak at the hands of the Patriots...