Just two days after Grady Jarrett signed a four year, $68 million dollar extension, the Atlanta Falcons announced another huge long-term deal. Transitioning Jarrett from the franchise tag to an extension freed up cap space and allowed for an agreement with star middle linebacker Deion Jones to the tune of four years and $57 million with $34 million guaranteed. Pundits expected the Grady Jarrett deal to set a new bar (excluding Aaron Donald), but somewhat surprisingly, his contract extension represents fairly good value for the Falcons. When evaluating contracts it’s worth exploring the player’s age at the start of the contract, the length of the contract, the total money, the guaranteed money, and the current positional market along with (the most obvious but least quantified) -- the quality of player involved.
Deion Jones contract carried lofty expectations as well, particularly after C.J. Mosley signed a record-setting contract for the position earlier this summer (five years and $85 million dollars with $51 million guaranteed). Ignoring the fact that Deion Jones is both a better and younger player than Mosley, the total money, money per year, and guaranteed money are all significantly higher for Mosley than Jones. Since the Mosley contract remains a bit of an outlier, it’s also worthwhile to compare Jones to others at the position as well.
Kwon Alexander signed a four year $54 million deal ($25.5 million guaranteed) with San Francisco as a free agent this summer despite ranking as the 45th best middle linebacker in his most recent season, according to PFF. The years and total money are similar to Jones, though Jones commanded $8.5 million more in guaranteed money. While Jones carries some injury risk coming off a 2018 season where a foot fracture kept him out 10 games before returning for the final 5, Alexander missed the final 10 games of 2018 due to an ACL tear. An extra bump to the guaranteed money seems a small price to pay for the clearly superior player with slightly less injury risk.
While this summer saw three major middle linebacker deals, it had actually been two years since anyone at the position got paid handsomely. In 2017 Alec Ogletree signed a four year $42.8 million dollar contract ($21.4 million guaranteed) with the Los Angeles Rams before his 2018 trade to the New York Giants. The money for Ogletree’s contract in 2017 is similar to that of Jones in 2019 when you adjust for cap inflation, and this example serves as a warning that ANY big money contract can come back to haunt you. Though Ogletree had a sterling reputation at the time of signing, PFF rated Ogletree as an average to below average linebacker for the two years prior to his big contract, so there were warning signs at the time. Jones being one year younger and a better player than Ogletree bodes well for the long-term value of the contract.
Both Bobby Wagner and Luke Kuechly signed enormous (at the time) contracts in 2015. Kuechly’s five year $61.8 million dollar deal with $27.0 million guaranteed outpaced Wagner’s four year $43 million dollar contract with $20 million guaranteed, but both contracts reflected the status of Kuechly and Wagner as the top middle linebackers in the game. Since signing those contracts, the two have taken turns finishing atop the PFF ratings. While Wagner and Kuechly are Tier 1, Jones has placed himself firmly in Tier 2 if not Tier 1B. Wagner and Kuechly aren’t cheap, but if the Panthers or Seahawks had to go back and do it over both teams would still sign their guy to the same contract. Considering that Wagner and Kuechly occupied 7.5 and 8.7% of the team cap at the time of their signing, Jones taking up 7.4% of the cap seems quite reasonable.
Negotiating a second contract this week that could have easily set the new standard for elite talent at the position, the Falcons again found themselves with a star player on a relative value contract. Barring significant injury, it’s hard to see this contract being anything but a win for the Falcons given Jones’ age, ability, and importance to the team.
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