Fresh off a 2018 College Football Playoff appearance, Notre Dame travels to Athens, GA this weekend in the second leg of the home and home series that began at South Bend in 2017. Notre Dame looks to avenge their 20-19 loss from two years ago, but Georgia looks to make a national statement as a two touchdown favorite (-14.5) over the Fighting Irish.
Notre Dame checks in at 2-0 after beating Louisville 35-17 on the road and walloping New Mexico 66-14 following a bye week. Georgia opened at Vanderbilt with a 30-6 win and followed that by dispatching two cupcakes in Murray State and Arkansas State by a combined score of 118-17. There’s not much to be gleaned from the final scores, but there is plenty to pick apart if you dig a bit deeper.
Georgia started 2019 ranked No. 3 with Notre Dame at No. 7. Both teams have enjoyed high-level success in recent years, making playoff appearances in 2017 and 2018, respectively. It comes as no surprise then that both teams have featured highly in recent
recruiting rankings. Over the last four years, Notre Dame has finished with classes ranked 15, 10, 10, and 16 while Georgia has finished ranked 6, 3, one, and two. Notre Dame’s recruiting has been very good over this period; Georgia’s recruiting has been phenomenal during the same time. The consistently strong recruiting from Notre Dame has resulted in the 14th most-talented roster in college football (based solely on recruiting rankings). The improved recruiting under Kirby Smart (and a suddenly less frugal administration) has improved Georgia’s roster talent to No. 3 overall. Taking a look at the recruiting breakdown
of each team shows that the primary difference between the two teams is the fourteen 5-star players (tops in college football) on Georgia’s roster in contrast to the one 5-star on Notre Dame’s roster. While both teams likely have a large number of future NFL players on their current rosters, Georgia projects to have more NFL talent than just about anybody in the country.
If the recruiting clearly favors Georgia so heavily, why talk about anything else?
Recruiting rankings make for a very good starting point, but there is a lot that happens after players get onto campus. Player development, coaching, and how the players are used schematically play major roles in team success. Along with these aspects, it’s always worth looking at the seniority of each team. Recruiting loads of 5-star players has been great for Georgia, but it also means a lot of players leaving for the NFL before their senior season. Notre Dame has sent it’s fair share of players to the NFL as well, but their recent teams have also managed to rely heavily on upperclassmen. While Georgia’s 2019 team is more experienced that it’s 2018 squad, Notre Dame has a clear edge in experience and seniority.
Notre Dame starts TEN seniors along with three graduate players and seven juniors, for a total of 20 upperclassmen or graduate starters. TWENTY Georgia relies heavily on it’s junior class (ten starters) that is supplemented evenly by sophomores and seniors (five starters each). One graduate transfer and one freshman round out the starters. In something of an inverse situation of recruiting, Georgia has a fairly veteran team that relies on a mix of young and old players, and Notre Dame has an incredibly veteran team with almost no youth.
Strengths
The Fighting Irish rely heavily on redshirt junior QB Ian Book. Book took over starting duties from Brandon Wimbush early in 2018, drastically improving the offense and propelling Notre Dame to an undefeated regular season and their first College Football Playoff berth. He is a capable runner who uses his mobility to buy time to make downfield throws. Defensively, the
strength of Notre Dame lies in a strong edge rush led by senior Julian Okwara. The pass rush is deep, with senior starters AND backups at both defensive end positions, and ever defender checking in with prototypical frames of around 6”4’ and 260 pounts. While the Irish lost All-American corner Julian Love, their pass rush is still paired with a solid secondary unit.
Anyone that has watched Georgia play the last few years knows that the offensive identity is built around a physical offensive line and running game. The combination of talent, depth, and experience across the offensive front is the reason this group is on the short list of best offensive lines in the nation. Behind them is a group of running backs that are (stop me if you’ve heard this before) talented, deep, and experienced. On the other side of the ball, Georgia’s secondary is unproven at cornerback, but full of high-ceiling talent that can run and cover. Defensive Coordinataor Dan Lanning’s confidence in the secondary is noticeable, as the pressure rate has increased drastically this season showing his faith in the back end to hold up.
Weaknesses
The weakness for Notre Dame comes in the running game on both sides of the ball. Offensively, the rushing attack has been mediocre at best (195 YPG), while on the run defensive has really struggled. Notre Dame is giving up more rushes of 10+ yards per game than any team nationally and currently ranks No.117 in rush defense. The questions for Georgia surround the passing game. The pass blocking and QB play have been outstanding in stretches but struggled heavily at times as well. While the defense has largely excelled the last few years, the pass rush has remained a struggle. This year’s group of pass rushers looks to be deeper and more talented than years past, but they haven’t had the opportunity to produce on a big stage yet.
Matchups
Ian Book's passing will be key to Notre Dame's gameplan on BOTH sides of the ball. An early lead or even a tight game would force Georgia to throw, allowing Notre Dame’s pass rush to be more involved. Additionally, preventing an early lead by Georgia would work to protect the weaker interior of Notre Dame’s defense.
Georgia will want to continue to lean on the run game and take advantage of the size and talent advantage they have with a stockpile of 5-star running backs and offensive linemen. Defensively, Georgia will look to stop the run on early downs in order to force third-and-long
situations that allow them to feature their revamped pass rush. If Georgia gets the favorable down and distance situations they’re looking for you should expect to see outside blitzes or spying Ian Book to prevent the time and space for him to hurt them with his scrambling.
Predictions
Neither team has been tested to date.
According SP, FEI, FPI Projections UGA is favored by ~ 10 points on a neutral field. The Vegas line of ~14.5 matches this prediction pretty well.
Expect a close game in the first half as Book makes some play and UGA slowly cranks up their ground game.
Look for UGA to control the second half with the running game and pull away in the fourth quarter to cover.
Final Score: UGA 31 - ND 17
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