What is a good running back worth? For the last tens years or so, the NFL’s answer has been “Not much.”
What is GREAT running back worth? According to Pittsburgh Steeler running back Le’veon Bell, much more than teams realize.
Here is a detailed and (hopefully) objective look at Bell’s decision in Q & A format.
Question #1: How are NFL contracts structured?
Answer: Have a seat...this is going to take a minute.
Contrary to popular beliefs, players don’t get paid the same salary every year. When you see a report that a player got an extension that doesn’t mean a “new” contract. What it means it that they get a pay raise and additional years added once their current contract expires.
For example, this summer Todd Gurley signed a four-year contract extension for a total value of $57.5 million. The contract goes into effect in 2020 and runs through 2024. But THIS year Gurley is only making $950,000 on the last year of his rookie contract. Sounds insanely low, right? Well, while $950,000 is Gurley’s base salary, he received an $8.3 million signing bonus his rookie year that was “fully guaranteed.” That means Gurley got that money regardless of whether or not he ever played a down for the Rams. That also means Gurley actually made $8.78 million his rookie year even though his base salary was just $450,000. Still with me?
When people report on contracts, they generally report the overall value of the contract and people assume that means the player gets paid the average salary of the contract each year. That’s just not how it works. The overall value of the contract isn’t guaranteed. If a player gets hurt or underperforms, a team can cut him and he may never see that money. That’s why “guaranteed” money is such a big deal. It’s also confusing because when people talking about somebody being “the highest paid” at a position they can mean one of two things -- either they have the largest TOTAL value to their contract or the highest AVERAGE salary. Those aren’t the same thing but people often talk about them as if they were.
Gurley’s new contract offers him a $21 million signing bonus spread over the four years of the contract. That money is guaranteed. The first TWO years of his salary are guaranteed also. That means that even if he gets cut, he still gets paid. That brings the total guaranteed money in his contract to $45 million. Here’s a visual from www.spotrac.com the best website around for looking at contracts, salary caps, and other front office nerdiness.
Remember the number $45 million. It will be important when we look at what the Steelers offered Le’Veon Bell.
Question #2: Why did Le’veon Bell turn down the Steelers offer for $70 million over five years? It would’ve made him the highest paid running back in league history. Why didn’t he take it?
Answer: Because it wasn’t fully guaranteed.
The highest-paid running back in the league (at the moment), LeSean McCoy, got more than $18 million guaranteed at signing in 2015. Devonta Freeman got more than $17 million guaranteed at signing from the Falcons last year, and the 49ers gave Jerick McKinnon $11.7 million guaranteed this year. The fully guaranteed part was his signing bonus of just over $10 million -- less than half of what Todd Gurley got and miles away from both Devonta Freeman and LeSean McCoy’s contracts. According to Adam Schefter, Bell could’ve made $33M over the first two years in a rolling guaranteed structure and $45M over the first three years. BUT...only the first year was fully guaranteed. There is little question that Bell could top $10 million of guaranteed money on the open market, especially given the massive guaranteed bounty Gurley just received.
Genius or madness? It’s looking a lot more like genius right now.
Question #3: Does Le’veon Bell deserve to be the highest paid running back in the NFL?
Answer: Probably.
Bell’s per year averages (five seasons):
12.4 Games
1,067 rushing yards
523 receiving yards
8 total TD
Those number are good, but they don’t tell the entire story. Bell only played five games during the 2015 season which kills his per season averages. He sandwiched 2,639 rushing yards and 1,470 receiving yards (on 199 catches) into the two seasons on either side of the 2015 season. He followed that up with an additional 1,946 yards from scrimmage in 2017. He was second only to Todd Gurley (the MVP runner-up) in scrimmage yards last year, finished third in 2016 and second in 2014. What does all that mean? It means Bell has been the most productive back in the NFL for the last five seasons.
Genius or madness? Making Le’Veon Bell the highest paid running back in the NFL would be anything but madness.
Question #4: What is the case AGAINST him being the highest paid back in the league?
Answer: Bell’s only concerns are age & reliability.
Bell has been one of the best backs in the league -- when he’s on the field. He’s played the full 16 games just once in his career. He’s never won a rushing title, has had two major injuries, two drug suspensions, a DUI, and is one substance violation away from being out of the league for a full year.
Bell will also be 27 at start of the 2019 season, meaning his new contract would pay him top dollar through age 31. There are only a handful of running backs in league history that have been productive into their thirties, and many of us had the great misfortune of watching all-time greats like Marshall Faulk, Eric Dickerson, and LaDainian Tomlinson go from unstoppable to painfully pedestrian seemingly overnight. Even the likes of really good backs like Edgerrin James, Priest Holmes, Eddie George, and Michael Turner fell off a cliff at age 30. All seven of these players had their last 1,000 rushing season at age 30 or younger. There are always exceptions (Frank Gore, Adrian Peterson) but they were forced to take smaller roles with less touches to help prolong their careers -- and accepting much smaller contracts to do so.
The bottom line is that paying a running back top dollar into his thirties is generally bad business, and paying him guaranteed money into his thirties is a good way to lose your job. If Bell received the same contract as Todd Gurley it would cost the team over $14 million to cut him at age 30 and $10 million to cut him at age 31 if he got hurt or his play started to decline. That’s a very, very risky proposition.
As an aside, it probably doesn’t help that Bell’s back-up -- 2017 third-round pick James Conner -- is currently third in the NFL in rushing yards and second in scrimmage yards behind (you guessed it) Todd Gurley. That isn’t to say that Bell isn’t an elite talent, but it does raise questions about whether his success isn’t at least somewhat tied to a Super Bowl winning coach, a future Hall of Fame quarterback, and one of the best offensive lines in the league.
Genius or madness? Paying Le’Veon bell is genius. Paying him guaranteed money until 31? Not so much.
Question #5: Why didn’t Le’Veon Bell take the franchise tag?
Answer: He doesn’t want to risk an injury.
Don’t be fooled...it’s ALWAYS about the money. Bell eclipsed 400 touches last year, an
astronomically high number for ANY player and the second highest usage total in the last 10 years. With more touches comes more injury risk, plain and simple. Bell, who already had knee surgery in 2015, seems to have decided that the risk of injury outweighed his desire to play and the incentive of $14.5 million in guaranteed money. It’s obvious that Bell also thinks he can make up this season’s lost salary with a free agent mega deal next year. The question is -- will he?
Genius or madness? Running backs typically have a seven or eight year window to really maximize their earnings. Walking away from $14.5 million guaranteed in your prime? Madness. Preventing an injury that could sabotage the last big contract of your career? Not quite so mad.
Question #6: Le’Veon Bell’s choice to sit out the season -- genius or madness?
Answer: Well...
Turning down $14.5 million to play behind an elite offensive line for the No. 4 offense in the league on a Super Bowl favorite certainly seems like madness at first glance. But...what if Bell DID get hurt? Would he become the NFL version of Isaiah Thomas?
The truth is, it’s difficult to evaluate Bell’s decision until he signs his next contract. For the sake of argument, let’s assume that in 2019 Bell gets a deal identical to the one Todd Gurley received. The $45 million guaranteed would be a huge jump from the $10 million Pittsburgh reportedly offered him and the $14.5 million he would’ve made off the franchise tag in 2018. BUT...what if he DOESN’T get a Gurley contract?
Bell’s production is as good as it gets, but the 24-year old Gurley is two years younger, has only missed four career games, and has never had a suspension or season-ending injury in the NFL (he had both in college). Bell is certain to get more than $10 million guaranteed, but will he catapult past Gurley into the $50 million range, or have to settle for something in the $20 milion - $30 million range? (I just wrote “settle” for $20 million. Man, that must be nice.)
If Bell can’t find a team to guarantee him more than two years of his contract he ultimately just wasted a precious year of his running back prime to tread water financially. The $14.5 million he walked away from is gone forever. But if he comes out of this as the highest paid back in NFL history (a very real possibility) could he be a trendsetter for future contract disputes?
Genius or madness? My vote is madness. But we’ll have to wait until the 2019 offseason to find out for sure.
What are YOUR thoughts on Le'Veon Bell? Please share them in the comments below!
Comments