The PGA Tour’s Super Season ended on Sunday with Patrick Cantlay taking home $15 million for winning the Tour Championship and the season-long FedEx Cup. With the unusual '20-'21 season in the books, what can we expect from the '21-'22 season that starts in a week and a half in Napa, California?
Golfer of the Year: Jon Rahm
In 2022, Rahm wins his second major and is named Golfer of the Year. He was considered the best golfer without a major victory for the two years prior to winning the US Open this June. His game is without a weakness. He is first in Total Driving and second in Greens in Regulation percentage. His putting is clutch, as evidenced by his U.S. Open performance this year. He birdied the 17th and 18th holes in the final round with left-to-right swinging putts of 25 feet and 18 feet respectively. The two birdies gave him a one-stroke win to claim his first major.
Major Winner: Dustin Johnson
In 2022, D.J. adds his third major to his Hall-of-Fame resume. He has effortless power, which serves him extraordinarily well in the PGA Championship and U.S. Open. The major probably won’t be the Open Championship, where power is secondary to strategy and putting, but the other three are fair game. He is fifth on tour in driving distance on all drives. His long distance gives him plenty of wedge shots in for birdie opportunities on par fours, and he has developed his wedge game into a huge strength. He is also 11th in putting average. He is remarkably consistent with at least one win every year his first 14 seasons as a professional.
Major Winner: Patrick Cantlay
Cantlay wins his first major in 2022. If you weren’t aware of his name before the last two weeks, you probably are now. He went toe-to-toe with Bryson Dechambeau down the stretch in the last round of the BMW Championship and won in a six-hole playoff. He followed that up by bringing a two-shot lead into the Tour Championship and held off bigger hitters Tony Finau (in round one) and Jon Rahm (in the last three rounds). The reason: besides his moxy and unflappable temper, he has added a great short game to his already exceptional ball-striking. He was third in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green and 10th in Greens in Regulation Percentage this year but was also first in Scrambling and 30th in Strokes Gained: Putting.
1st win since 2010: Louis Oosthuizen
The gap-toothed South African had a heart-breaking season that Braves, Falcons, and Bulldogs fans can relate to. He finished runner-up in this year’s U.S. Open and PGA Championship as well as two other regular Tour events. He then finished third in the 2020 U.S. Open and the Open Championship. He has worked very hard to add an excellent short game (first in Strokes Gained: Putting and 10th in Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green) to one of the sweetest swings in golf. He breaks through with a win in either a major, World Golf Championship event, the Players, or a Playoff event.
1st PGA Tour win in 2 years: Xander Schauffele
This year’s Gold medalist wins one of the big PGA Tour events (World Golf Championship event, the Players, Playoff event). He didn’t win in 2020 or 2021, but his game is too well-rounded to keep the drought going. He is 17th in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green and sixth in Total Putting and will finally put a tournament together to win in this next season.
Winners Making the Trip to East Lake
Tyrell Hatton - After going the 2020-2021 season without a victory, Hatton returns to the victory circle with a win in 2021-2022. His ball-striking (18th in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green and 13th in Strokes Gained: Approach-the-Green) and putting (16th in Overall Putting Average) puts him in contention several times and leads him to victory this year.
Matthew Fitzpatrick - The Englishman wins for the first time on Tour. His excellence off the tee (15th Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee) and putting (38th in Strokes Gained: Putting) changes that in the new season.
Winners
Justin Thomas - Thomas has won 14 times in the last 6 years, so seeing him in the victory circle again in 2021-2022 will be a no-brainer.
Viktor Hovland - The Norwegian has won two smaller events in his first two years on Tour (Puerto Rico, Mayakoba). He ranks fifth in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee and 15th in Strokes Gained: Approach-the-Green, so all he needs is a good putting week to claim victory again in 2021-2022.
Cameron Smith - The Aussie drew a lot of attention in the WGC event the FedEx St. Jude Invitational and the first event of the FedEx Cup Playoffs because of his sweet mullet. His short game (1st in Putting Average, 3rd in Sand Save Percentage) is just as spectacular.
Sam Burns - Burns celebrated his first victory on Tour this year with a giant wine bottle that his wife bought. He better have an encore for this next season.
Not Making it back to East Lake
Hideki Matsuyama - The first Japanese-born male major winner did end a four-year winless drought by winning the Masters this year, but don’t expect him to repeat the feat this year. He is 175th on Tour in Strokes Gained: Putting, which takes him out of too many tournaments.
Daniel Berger
Billy Horschel - Horschel, the 2014 FedEx Cup Champion, will not make it back to East Lake for another run at the Cup.
Bryson Dechambeau doesn’t win anything
Dechambeau has become the most “must-watch” golfer on Tour with his long drives. He paired up with Aaron Rodgers to win "The Match" against Tom Brady and Phil Mickleson this summer. A few weeks from now, he will compete in a long-Dfrive contest. He drives the ball farther than anyone in Tour history, and his putting is well above-average, but he seems to be missing the forest for the trees.
Although he is able to reach more par five greens in two than anyone else and gives himself shorter approach shots on par fours, he is often coming out of the rough because of his inaccuracy. He can’t seem to capitalize with his wedges on the shorter approach shots. He struggled, being 156th on Tour in proximity to the hole even though his approach shots were the shortest on Tour. And his wedges around the green were a major weakness, as evidenced in his showdown in the BMW Championship, where he would often turn to putting from off the green or fumble with his longer-shafted wedges.
His one-length irons and wedges may be a good idea but have not translated to a good short game (146th in Strokes Gained: Around-the Green). He might benefit from backing off from the speed training, bulking up, and promo appearances, and instead use the time to work on improving his chipping, pitching, and full-length wedges.
Tiger and Phil make headlines -- but not on Tour
Phil’s 2021-2022 may be more predictable than Tiger’s. Phil will move more and more to playing PGA Tour Champions events (for golfers over 50 years of age), where he dominates. He won his first two Tour Champions events this year. Meanwhile, competing against the younger guys, all of his strokes gained categories (off-the-tee, approach-the-green, around-the-green, putting) were outside the top 100. I think his PGA Championship victory this year, though incredible and memorable, will likely be his last Tour victory.
Tiger’s status will be harder to predict. He is still recovering in Florida from a car accident in February of this year that left him with open fractures of his right leg. He has publicly admitted that this physical therapy has been the hardest work of his life. He was photographed by TMZ a month ago, still on crutches. I don’t think he will be able to rehabilitate to the point where he can compete meaningfully in PGA competition this year, but I do hope he plays on Tour again in 2022.
What bold predictions do YOU have for the '21-'22 tour? Let us know in the comments!
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