College Football is back, and for at least one more year, every fan has the hope of their football team being one of the final four left at the end of the year to make the College
Football Playoff (CFP). If you ask most fans, there are only a half-dozen or so teams that could realistically compete for the playoff in this or any year. In the first seven years of the
CFP, only eleven teams have been slotted into the top four at the end of the year. Blue chip programs such as Alabama, Clemson, Ohio State, and Oklahoma have made up 71% of the CFP appearances so far, so it’s no wonder these four teams make up most of the expert’s picks for this year’s Playoff. It’s also no wonder that many fans of other teams feel a sort of inevitability about these teams being the four left on New Year’s Eve.
But the hope and optimism of college football fans everywhere returns in September as 130 FBS teams started their seasons over the last week and a half. Even with the knowledge that only a handful of blue chip schools have a probable chance of making the CFP, aren’t we as
fans of other teams optimistic that this could be our team’s year? Imagine being a fan of the 2006 Ray Rice-led Rutgers team starting 9-0. Or a 2007 Kansas Jayhawks fan sitting at 11-0 before losing their chance to make the BCS Championship at the hands of their arch-rival Missouri. At some point, as a fan you let your mind wander “Is this our year?”
Which teams do actually have a chance at the CFP this year? The best way to predict what the playoff selection committee will do in December, is to look back at the last seven years of their decision making. Some of their decisions about the last spot have been questionable at best. But ultimately, they have made several things clear:
First, you must have zero or one loss. No team with two losses has made the playoff, much to the chagrin of the 2016 Penn State Nittany Lions (who won the B1G at 11-2 only to see Ohio State selected over them).
Secondly, your one loss must be a quality loss. It cannot be come against too poor of a team or by too wide of a margin (Ex: 2018 Ohio State vs Purdue).
Of the sixteen teams to qualify for the Playoff with a loss, none of them lost to a team outside the Power 5 Conferences. That means a loss to an FCS team or a Group of 5 team would be an essential disqualifier for a team being considered for the playoff.
Eleven of the 16 one-loss teams lost by only a touchdown or less, and 14 of the 16 lost by two touchdowns or less. The only two teams to qualify for the Playoff after carding a loss by more than two touchdowns were the 2017 Georgia team, who lost at #10 Auburn and last year’s Notre Dame team, who lost in the ACC championship game on a neutral site to #3 Clemson.
So, your only chance of making the Playoff:
Win all of your games, or lose only one game
If you lose one game, it needs to be by two touchdowns or less OR it needs to be a loss to a top 10 team (preferably on a neutral site or on the road).
Using this simple criteria, of the 130 teams in the FBS, 35 (27%) were already eliminated
from contention after week on. Here are the number of teams that each conference has left after week one:
SEC: 13 (all except Vanderbilt, who lost to East Tennessee State)
ACC: 12
B1G: 11
Big 12: all 10
C-USA: 10
PAC-12: 9
MWC: 8
Sun Belt: 7
MAC: 6
AAC: 5
Independents: 4
Who still has life?
Former No.3 Clemson’s one-touchdown loss to No.5 Georgia on a neutral site in Charlotte is exactly the type of loss that will be forgiven by the selection committee if they can just win out against the rest of the schedule -- a schedule that currently does not feature another ranked opponent. Especially with the loss being early in the year, D.J. Uiagalelei can still figure things out, get the offense going, and navigate the Tigers through the ACC Atlantic Division. While this loss is not a mortal wound, it does mean Clemson doesn’t have a mulligan later in the year.
In the other half of the ACC, former No.10 North Carolina’s one-touchdown loss to Virginia Tech in Blacksburg, although disappointing, can be amended for if they run the table the rest of the year against Notre Dame, Miami, and the winner of the Atlantic Division (likely Clemson).
Although No.12 Wisconsin suffered a six-point loss to Penn State in their opener, their weak division means that they’re not completely out of playoff contention. The B1G West has had Wisconsin as its representative in six of the last ten conference championship games. Running the table would mean wins against Notre Dame, Iowa, and the B1G East winner, which could still land them in the College Football Playoff. LSU also had a difficult 11-point loss in the Rose Bowl Saturday night, but that too could be forgiven if they can go one to win out against a very difficult SEC schedule, including games against No. 13 Florida, No.5 Texas A&M and at (apparently) reloaded No.1 Alabama.
Who’s out?
You don’t always get dinged for scheduling Alabama, but No.14 Miami’s CFP lifeline is done after losing to them by 31. No.17 Indiana is out after their 34-6 loss against Iowa, and No.20 Washington laid an egg against FCS opponent Montana. Better luck next year fellas.
Big Games this week:
No.11 Oregon @ No.4 Ohio State: 12:00 on FOX
No.18 Iowa @ No. 7 Iowa State: 4:30 on ABC
Who will be left standing at the end of week three??
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