Dread It, Run From It, Signing Day Still Arrives

Saban Wants Half of All Recruits

Some wait with anticipation while top recruits sign letters of intent, but others see elaborate ceremonies for teenagers and dream of annihilating half the population; either way, National Signing Day still arrives. Last year introduced the first early signing day that offered recruits a three-day window to finalize their decisions starting Dec. 20th. This early signing period had been talked about for years, never very seriously, before quickly being implemented last year. Being new, a lot of coaches, players, and fans didn’t really know what to expect. The general consensus was that some players would sign early to go ahead and shut things down, but most fans and media outlets expected the blue-chip recruits to drag things out and sign on the customary first Wednesday in February.

The real life result was quite the opposite; exactly 75% of the blue chip recruits (four and five star players) signed early. Some lesser regarded players were encouraged to wait until February while others chose to wait in hopes of picking up offers from schools that missed on their top tier targets, but most of the “lesser” recruits still signed early as well. About 80% of recruits are expected to sign during this years early signing period that runs Dec.19-21, effectively making this new “add-on” to the recruiting cycle the de facto national signing day.

Georgia finished up last year with the #1 recruiting class for the first time ever, bolstered in large part by landing seven of the top twelve players in the state of Georgia. That’s a good result in general, and is particularly impressive in a year where four QBs finished as top-twelve players (meaning UGA effectively landed seven of nine possible recruits). Georgia currently has commitments from two of the top twelve players in the state, with only one uncommitted prospect in that group (albeit the top-ranked player in Jadon Haselwood). In years past the in-state lulls in recruiting were treated like natural disasters by fans, though complaints have been sparse this year. The reason? The previous year’s recruiting success combined with the current class sitting at #2 in the overall team rankings. So while in-state recruiting has been spotty, the overall job has been good so far.

Current UGA Commits

A class comprised almost completely of blue chip recruits is shaping up nicely for Kirby Smart and Co., and only nineteen current commits means there is still room to add players. A handful of highly regarded players are still out there, with many of these recruiting battles being seen as head-to-head between Alabama and Georgia. Finishing with the top class again would require winning a lot of those battles AND Alabama missing out on practically every top prospect left on their board. As it stands right now, Alabama is most likely to finish #1, but Georgia has an outside shot at surpassing them. No other team looks to have a significant shot at top honors this year.

Top UGA Targets

Best finish: 1

Likely finish: 2

Worst finish: Top 5

Georgia Tech’s recruiting class (both commits and top targets) may be very much in flux with Paul Johnson out and Geoff Collins in. Previous years under CPJ have yielded sparse recruiting results (seemingly intentionally), and with the move away both the triple option and the grumpy misdemeanor the big question is how much and how quickly can Collins turn that around? In general, first classes for new coaches are light on overall numbers. That combined with a major scheme transition means Tech fans should not expect too terribly much in recruiting this year. The current class has seventeen commits and comes in at #48 overall (#10 in the ACC), which is roughly where most of the CPJ era teams finished.

Current Georgia Tech Commits

So who are Tech’s top targets? Again, it’s a little unclear at the moment. Expect Collins to target some current Temple commits, particularly with 4 of the top 5 Temple commits hailing from the southeast. Flipping these recruits won’t add any headliners to Tech’s class, but it would add some needed depth and offset some possible losses of CPJ recruits. Collins poaching recruits from Temple is unlikely in the future (unless the program is really struggling), but it may be quite important this year..

Top Georgia Tech Targets

Top Temple Commits

Tech’s final recruiting ranking is likely to be a function of class size. Early signing day has not been kind to head coaching changes so far, but if Collins keeps the current class together, pulls in a top target or two, and flips some Temple guys then Tech can finish with a class as good as any Johnson brought in. In some years this would be a near disaster, but it isn’t bad for a transition year. If the transition makes a big impact then the class final ranking could run low on numbers and quality while finishing as one of the very bottom Power 5 schools.

Best finish: Top 35

Likely finish: Top 45

Worst finish: Top 60

Love it or hate it, the end is near.