The Braves just made the biggest mid-season acquisition since trading for Mark Texiera.
General manager Alex Anthopolous convinced Liberty Media—the frugal owning group of the Braves—to outbid the Yankees (yes, you read that correctly) and shell out $13 million to secure Dallas Keuchel for the rest of the season.
Is this an early Christmas miracle for the Braves?
Keuchel's success speaks for itself. He won the Cy Young in 2015 when he went 20-8 with a 2.48 ERA. Over the past 5 seasons, he's pitched 200+ innings three times and—unbeknownst to most baseball fans—won a Gold Glove four times.
While us Braves fans are encouraged by the addition of a proven starting pitcher, Keuchel's strengths and experience will ultimately not be enough to win the NL East this season.
The reasons begin with the current starting rotation.
Where We Are
#1 Mike Soroka: He is the unquestionable ace of the Braves' staff with a minuscule 1.38 ERA after 12 starts, only trailing Hyun-Jin Ryu for the MLB lead. Hitters are only hitting .176 against him, and he's looking like a lock for his first All-Star nod.
Soroka has never pitched an entire MLB season, and we can't help but wonder how much longer the 21-year old phenom and his young arm can lead the Braves in a tight NL East race. He's the ace for now, but hopefully Keuchel can take the #1 spot and some pressure off the Braves' Rookie of the Year candidate.
#2 Max Fried: Mad Max is making the Justin Upton trade from 2014 look like a steal. Just look at this filthy curveball.
I have no hesitation in comparing his stuff to Barry Zito -- the kid is talented.
In spite of Fried's success, teams are starting to figure him out. He's given up nine earned runs in his last three starts over 15.2 innings. By comparison, he gave up nine runs in his first six starts **over 36.2 innings**. How will his surgically repaired elbow hold up come September? I'm not sure, but I think the addition of Keuchel will bump him down from #2 to #4, because….
#3 Julio Teheran: …this guy has been the secret weapon of the rotation. I've been an advocate of trading Teheran for years, but 2019 Teheran has quietly become the Nick Markasis of the rotation: He's not flashy, but he gets the job done.
Did you know Teheran leads the team in starts (14), innings pitched (77.1), and strikeouts (74)?
Did you also know he has a better WHIP (1.20) than Max Fried (1.30)?
And did you know his 3.03 ERA and 1.9 WAR is the best among Braves starters not named Mike Soroka?
If he can continue avoiding trouble in the first inning and get his walks down—his 37 BB leads the team—he can be a perfect middle-of-the-rotation starter instead of having to be the ace every April.
#4 Mike Foltynewicz: Coming off an All-Star selection in 2018 where he posted a 2.55 ERA over his final 10 starts, nobody could have predicted Folty would open the 2019 campaign 1-5 with a whopping 5.89 ERA and 15 home runs surrendered in only 44.1 innings. His command has eluded him all season. And while his last start against the Pirates was promising (6.0 IP, 6 H, 3 ER, 1BB, 5K), he got beat on two pitches that sailed over the outfield wall. In home run happy 2019, Folty has to keep the ball in the ballpark to have a chance at winning games. His 2018 success will keep him in the rotation until at least the All-Star break, but Snitker can only count on him as a fourth or fifth starter until Folty rediscovers his command.
#5 Kevin Gausman: The addition of Keuchel to the rotation means there will be an odd (or even?) man out. As I commented on the recent poll on the Title Run Facebook page, Gausman has to go. He only has two pitches right now, and he needs to head down to Gwinnett to get his slider working and/or alter his delivery. I don't think a trip to the bullpen will work. [UPDATE: Gausman is out of minor league options, so what will likely happen is he'll go to the bullpen and Folty will go down to Tripe A.]
The leftovers: Of the other Braves who have started—Touki Touissant, Sean Newcomb, Kyle Wright, and Bryse Wilson—Touissant has the best chance of getting back in the rotation. However, it's difficult to see that happening given the increased value of having quality long-relief pitchers in the bullpen.
Keuchel to the Rescue
At 31, Keuchel will be the only starter over 28 years old. His stellar clubhouse reputation and ability to mentor the younger members of the pitching staff makes him a perfect fit for the Braves.
But where Keuchel really gives the Braves an edge is his 50+ innings of postseason experience. He's been to the playoffs 3 of the past 4 years and made significant contributions. Oh, and he won the World Series in 2017 with current Braves catcher Brian McCann behind the dish.
And the postseason experience for the rest of the staff?
Soroka and Fried? Zip.
Gausman? He pitched in relief during his run with the Orioles in 2014, amassing 10.0 innings.
Teheran? He only has two postseason starts to his name—both losses to the Dodgers—over a total of 4.1 innings.
Folty? We can only hope he's itching to improve on last year's disastrous run in the NLDS, where he was chased in Game 1 after only 2 innings of work and chased in Game 4 after only 4 innings of work. 6.0 innings total.
Supposing Gausman is the odd-man-out of the postseason rotation, that leaves Teheran and Folty with a combined 10.1 innings.
Keuchel pitched 10 innings in October 2018 alone.
Can the Braves win the NL East?
The Phillies are working through injuries, but they are much improved over last year. What concerns me is they haven't really heated up yet. Star outfielder Bryce Harper's WAR is only 0.9, and there is no way he finishes the year with a career-low, sub-1.0 WAR. Even if he does, All-star catcher J.T. Realmuto is picking up the slack.
The Braves won the division title last season because only one other team was good enough (barely) to be over .500: the 82-80 Nationals. The Phillies are already 10 games over .500, and that means the Braves can't simply be "good enough" this season to get the NL East title—they have to be great.
The lack of experience in the rotation combined with the shaky bullpen means signing Keuchel is only the first step to repeating as NL East division champions.
But the real question is...
Let's suppose the Braves find a way to win the division as-is. That dream scenario plays out like this: Keuchel dominates the front end of the rotation, Soroka and Fried turn out to be 12+ game winners, Josh Donaldson provides more hits from the middle of the lineup, and the bullpen….well, they just hang on for dear life.
The real question then becomes, can the Braves win a playoff series for the first time since 2001, when they swept the Houston Astros in three games?
Former Astro Dallas Keuchel is a welcome addition, but it's not enough. The Braves need more help.
What additional moves would you like to see the Braves make? Leave a like and a comment!