The Falcons’ disappointing 7-9 campaign was torpedoed early on by the loss of two Pro Bowl defensive starters, both starting guards, and Pro Bowl running back Devonta Freeman. Overall, the Falcons sent nine players to injured reserve and the result was a struggling defense and an up-and-down offense that cost all three Atlanta coordinators their jobs. The question -- where do the Falcons go from here?
Coaching Changes
The Falcons offseason began with the immediate firing of offensive coordinator Steve Sarkisian, defensive coordinator Marquand Manuel, and long-time special teams coordinator Keith Armstrong. Any time a franchise axes its coordinators the clock starts ticking on the head coach. So why did head coach Dan Quinn decide to turn over the staff?
Why They’re Gone
Marquand Manuel was promoted from secondary coach to defensive coordinator following the 2016 season. After finishing the 2017 campaign with two dominant playoff performances and top-10 rankings in both total defense and scoring defense, the Falcons entered 2018 with high expectations. The unit returned a core of talented rookie-contract studs like Deion Jones, Keanu Neal, and Grady Jarrett mixed with reasonably-priced veterans like Robert Alford, Derrick Shelby, and Brooks Reed. Instead, the Falcons defense endured an injury bug of biblical proportions losing Keanu Neal, Ricardo Allen, and Deion Jones for virtually the entire season as they plummeted to the following statistical rankings:
Overall:
Pass Defense:
Rush Defense:
By every objective measure, the Falcons were one of the worst defenses in the NFL. Injuries or not, a unit that bad is tough to swallow for a coach respected as a defensive guru. The Falcons allowed nearly 2,000 rushing yards, 1,000 penalty yards, consistently failed to pressure opposing passers, and were absolutely horrendous at getting off the field on third down. The defensive regression overshadowed a MVP-level season by Matt Ryan as the Falcons offense carried the team for long stretches of the 2018 campaign.
With no playoff appearance and growing heat on Quinn’s coaching seat, it appears Coach Quinn has decided to do what he does best -- call the defense. Quinn unofficially took over defensive play calling duties from coordinator Richard Smith late in the 2016 campaign, and many believe this move led to the marked improvement that saw the Falcons go from a bottom third defense to within seconds of winning Super Bowl LI. If Quinn truly IS feeling the heat, it’s easy to understand his decision -- if you’re going to get fired, better to get fired making the calls yourself. It seems Quinn has finally concluded he may never find a defensive coordinator as good as...well, himself.
Keith Armstrong was the longest-tenured coach on the Falcon's staff, having coached in Atlanta for 11 seasons. Armstrong’s 2018 special teams units were good on paper:
#8 in yards allowed per punt return: 6.8
#17 in yards allowed per kick return: 22.7
#17 in yards per kick return: 22.2
#6 in the NFL in fair catches; longest punt return of the season was 18 yd
Kicking game -- only team in NFL whose opponents did not miss a FG;
Matt Bryant -- Only missed one FG, none under 50 yards; 41 of 43 on XP
League-high 2 blocked punts
On the surface, the Falcons appear above average on special teams, but a closer look reveals that their top-10 rating is largely due to the seemingly ageless leg of Matt Bryant. Bryant remains one of the best kickers in the league at age 43, and his uncanny accuracy masked the relative mediocrity of the Falcons coverage and return units.
The Falcons return game has been mediocre (at best) since the departure of Devin Hester following the 2015 season, and it doesn’t help that Falcons cast-off Andre Roberts led the New York Jets to the best return game in the NFL on his way to a Pro Bowl season. While the 2018 season showed significant improvement over the 2017's #19 ranking in DVOA, it’s still a big drop from the 2016 ranks of #7 in DVOA and #12 overall.
The bottom line is that while the Armstrong-led special teams were far from a disaster, it’s hard to argue there isn’t at least some room for improvement, especially in a return game where fair catches and touchbacks have become far too common.
Had Steve Sarkisian lost his job after the 2017 season it would have been much less shocking than on the heels of a highly successful season for the Falcons offense. The unit’s production is even more impressive when you factor in season-ending injuries to starting guards Andy Levitre and Brandon Fusco, Pro Bowl running back Devonta Freeman, and the surprising regression of right tackle Ryan Schraeder.
The Falcons offense by the numbers:
Unfortunately Sark’s fate was sealed by a mid-season offensive slump and an anemic run game. After clawing back to 4-4 from a 1-4 start, the Falcons lost five straight games while averaging just 17.6 points and 63.6 rushing yards. That included efforts of 26 and 34 rushing yards in back-to-back weeks against the Saints and Ravens. This appears to have been the death nail in the Sarkisian tenure for Quinn who has unapologetically emphasized his desire for a physical, run-heavy offense.
Personnel
Personnel is essential to winning at any level, so how does the Falcon’s roster shape up heading into the 2019 offseason?
Offensive Personnel
What We Love
Receiving Corps - Mohamed Sanu, Calvin Ridley, and Julio Jones combined for a gawdy 3,346 receiving yards and 22 TD on 243 catches. Their yardage and touchdown totals exceed the totals of NINE NFL teams.
Matt Ryan - Take a look at the chart below. The other five quarterbacks listed were all offered Pro Bowl roster spots over Matt Ryan. Insane. Ryan was statistically one of the five best quarterbacks in the entire league this season.
Alex Mack - Mack just played in his sixth Pro Bowl, including his third consecutive selection with the Falcons. He remains on the short list of best centers in the NFL.
What We Like
Running Back Depth - Devonta Freeman is a Pro Bowl-caliber player when healthy, and the duo of Tevin Coleman/Ito Smith tallied over 1,500 scrimmage yards and 13 TD in his absence. If the Falcons choose not to re-sign Coleman (who is a free agent), Smith seems more than capable of stepping in as Freeman’s back-up. If the Falcons keep all three, they would likely boast one of the most explosive and versatile tailback trios in the league.
Jake Matthews - The 26-year old just made his first Pro Bowl and is finally living up to the lofty expectations of a No. 6 overall pick who just signed a five-year, $75 million extension in July.
Austin Hooper - Hooper blossomed in year three, hauling in 71 catches for 660 yards and four TD on his way to his first Pro Bowl.
What We Don’t Like:
Both Guards - Andy Levitre and Brandon Fusco missed a combined 23 starts this season. That brings Levitre -- who Pro Football Focus (PFF) rated as the #17 guard in 2017 -- to 19 missed contests in the last two years. No matter how good you are, you can’t help your team if you can’t stay healthy.
Right Tackle - Ryan Schraeder went from being one of the most underrated right tackles in the game (#29 tackle in 2017 according to PFF) to being benched late in the season for journeyman back-up Ty Sambrailo.
Devonta’s Injury History - If Tevin Coleman walks, the Falcons are one Freeman concussion away from being woefully thin at a position that has been a strength of the team for the last three years.
Defensive Personnel
What we Love:
Grady Jarrett - Despite the lack of eye-popping sack numbers (ten in the last two seasons), Jarrett is one of the most disruptive interior linemen around. PFF rates him the #5 interior defensive lineman in the league and he'll likely seek to be paid as such as his rookie contract expires.
Our Top Three Safeties - Keanu Neal made his first Pro Bowl in 2017 and PFF rated Ricardo Allen rated as the #31 safety of 2017. After both suffered season ending injuries in the first two games, backup Damontae Kazee stepped in and tied for the NFL lead in interceptions (7)...did we mention Kazee and Neal are still on their rookie contracts?
Deion Jones - Jones made his first Pro Bowl in 2017 and was already entering the fringes of the conversation for best inside backer in the NFL. He ranked as the #6 linebacker in 2017 according to PFF and finished as the #15 linebacker this season despite playing just six games.
What we Like
Takk McKinley - McKinley’s relentless energy and activity has to turn into increased production as some point…right?? As promising as Takk looks in flashes, the consistent impact just isn’t there. It feels like 13 sacks in two seasons is just a tease of what he’s capable of.
What We Don’t Like
Desmond Trufant’s Salary - Trufant will make nearly $14 million next year as the Falcon’s highest paid defender. He is the sixth-highest paid corner in the NFL while playing nowhere NEAR the level of players with comparable salaries such as Patrick Peterson, Xavier Rhodes, and Stephon Gilmore. Trufant is a solid player, but his performance hasn’t even approached a level worthy of his contract.
Robert Alford’s salary...and penalties - After a stellar 2017, in 2018 Alford allowed 850 yards and a 138.3 QB rating on passes against him in coverage. Yikes. He was the fifth most-penalized defensive back in NFL, all while making $9 million.
Vic Beasley - Beasley has just 10 sacks and 39 tackles in the two seasons since his breakout 15.5 sack year in 2016. Those aren’t exactly numbers befitting of a top-10 draft pick set to make $12.8 million next season. The Falcons simply can’t afford to bring Beasley back at that number, but the lukewarm performance of Takk McKinley doesn’t leave them with many pass-rushing options. More on Vic in our next article.
What Changes Need to be Made?
This list is by no means exhaustive, but rather a snapshot of where the Falcons might start:
Re-negotiate with Vic Beasley. Beasley simply can't remain on the roster at $12.8 million dollars. That number is astronomically higher than what he's likely to get on the open market and would totally hamstring their ability to pay defensive MVP Grady Jarrett. If Beasley isn't willing to accept a salary that matches his production, it's time to let him walk.
Add impact depth on the defensive line. This starts with resigning Grady Jarrett and then taking Ed Oliver, Dexter Lawrence, Montez Sweat, Jeffrey Simmons, Clelin Ferrell, Christian Wilkins, or any of the other 7-8 stud interior defenders in a historically deep defensive line draft.
Cut Robert Alford. A $9 million salary is too steep a price for the #105 corner in the league (according to PFF). ***Update -- Alford was cut by the Falcons on February 6, during the publishing of this article. He has signed a 3-year deal with the Arizona Cardinals.
Draft interior offensive linemen. The Falcons need immediate depth at guard and should also start considering for an heir apparent to 33-year old center Alex Mack.
Find a dedicated return man. Whether it means taking a mid-round flyer on a guy like Mecole Hardman, or bringing back the aforementioned Andre Roberts, it's time for the Falcons to end the revolving door of stop-gap return men.
Find a cheaper back-up for Matt Ryan. While 38-year old Matt Schaub is a great insurance policy, the Falcons could save a ton of money by opting to develop a younger back-up that doesn't cost $4.5 million a year.
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