And then there were three.
The 2018 season began with two returning Heisman Trophy finalists slated for big follow-up campaigns and ended with three highly touted first-year quarterbacks making the college football world all but forget about the ridiculously successful signal-callers they replaced.
Tua Tagovailoa, Dwayne Haskins, and Kyler Murray are in. Jonathan Taylor and his 1,989 yards? Try again next year. Bryce Love, the 2017 Doak Walker award winner? Just 789 rushing yards and ONE 100-yard game this season. Gardner Minshew, his mustache, and his 36 TD? Nice try, thanks for playing.
Haskins, Murray, and Tagoviloa clearly separated themselves from the other players in contention and their stats affirm the elite play that established them as Heisman finalists. Their numbers are below with the leaders in each category are shown in red:
The Cases
Kyler Murray, Oklahoma, QB
The Case: The former five-star prospect faced the daunting task of replacing one of the greatest players in program history in Heisman Trophy winner Baker Mayfield. Murray responded by leading the nation in passer rating, while finishing third in yards, second in TD passes, and rushing for an additional 892 yads and 11 TD. All together he accounted for just under 5,000 total yards and 51 total TD for an Oklahoma team with a historically bad defense that has allowed at least 40 points in four of the last five games. His pinpoint passing has been mixed together with jaw-dropping Johnny Manziel-like scrambles and numerous come-from-behind heroics during the last quarter of the season.
The Narrative: Murray's prolific passing numbers and highlight-reel runs have kept him firmly entrenched in second behind Tua Tagovailoa for most of the season. With Tagovailoa struggling in the SEC Championship game, the first real chinks appeared in his Heisman armor and Murray responded that evening with 379 passing yards and 3 TD in a revenge game against Texas. Ironically, Jalen Hurts entering the SEC Championship to rally Bama to victory could've been the best thing for Murray's Heisman campaign. While Alabama has a former SEC Player of the Year waiting on their bench, Oklahoma is completely dependent on the arms and legs of Kyler Murray, and there is no "Plan B." Murray might be the most valuable player in college football at the helm of the nation's top offense. The question is -- has he been the best player in college football?
Dwayne Haskins, Ohio State, QB
The Case: Haskins' Heisman campaign has been marked by ridiculous production and uncanny consistency. He led the nation in TD passes (setting a B1G record) and yards, finished fourth in passer rating, and sixth in completion percentage. All that for team that has needed every yard and point with the defense giving up 33.3 points per game over the last six contests.
The Narrative: Despite playing well all year, Ohio State didn't have the dominant victories to pair with Haskins' dominant stats. He piled up big numbers on teams it felt like Ohio state should be killing, and the Buckeyes staggered through the majority of their conference schedule. Then the Michigan game happened. Haskins' put on the performance of a lifetime to lead his underdog Buckeyes to a runaway victory against the nation's top defense. The six TD performance gave context and credibility to his already-stellar numbers, and the Haskins Heisman train picked up some serious steam.
Tua Tagovailoa, Alabama, QB
The Case: Through 3/4 of the season, Tagovailoa was the most electric player in college football and a runaway favorite to win the Heisman. His numbers were legitimately video game-like as he led the best offense of the Nick Saban era to a record 12 consecutive 20-point wins. Just check out this line from the Arkansas game -- 10/13 for 334 yards and four TD. How is that even real?? It took him nine games to throw an interception or even attempt a fourth quarter pass. He finished third in the nation in TD passes and #2 in passer rating on just 294 attempts -- an average 22.6 attempts per game. By comparison, Haskins attempted 38 passes a game, and Murray 26.
The Narrative: Injuries were the only thing able to slow down Tagovailoa this season. Over the last third of the year he battled knee pain which severely limited his mobility and led to uncharacteristic sacks and turnovers that had been big offensive plays earlier in the year. Tagovailoa was last seen was hobbling around Mercedes-Benz stadium trying unsuccessfully to bring his team back from a two TD deficit in the SEC Championship game. It was his worst performance of the season BY FAR, and he ultimately left with an ankle injury that allowed former starter Jalen Hurts rescue the Tide and potentially save their season. Final impressions matter, and the question is whether Tua's insanely brilliant play during the first three-fourths of the season will overshadow his inevitable regression to the mean during the last few weeks of the 2018 campaign.
And the winner is...
Kyler Murray, Oklahoma
Murray's consistency, highlights, narrative, and clutch play gives him the slightest nod over the sheer dominance of early favorite Tua Tagovailoa. Dwayne Haskins finishes a distant, but respectful third. While Murray's superior numbers are largely due to Tagovailoa resting during fourth quarters, it's easy to argue that his stats are not only better, but more meaningful. Murray has surpassed even the loftier expectations of what he would accomplish as Baker Mayfield's replacement, and his numbers have come in competitive games where the Sooners needed him to be great in order to have even a REMOTE chance at victory. Value isn't explicitly stated as part of the Heisman criteria, but it's a good distinction when two players are as dominant as these two have been all season.
Kyler Murray is your 2018 Heisman Trophy winner.
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