The 2018 Atlanta Braves were the surprise of the National League going 90-72 to win the NL East out of nowhere. Last year’s success signaled an early end to the agonizing three-year rebuild. The wealth of minor league riches acquired in the 2015 fire sale paid huge dividends for the Braves 2018 and should do so again in 2019. With the division looking vastly improved in 2019, can the Baby Braves repeat as division champs?
Projected Lineup
There was some controversy over the decision to move Ronand Acuna, Jr. from batting lead-off to hitting clean-up after the torrid second half of 2018 he put together from the lead-off spot (.322/.403/19 HR). Ender Inciarte struggled hitting lead-off last season and the move means less plate appearances for Acuna, whose rookie numbers project to 33 HR and 81 RBI in a 600 at-bat season.
The flip-side of the argument is that sandwiching lefty Freddie Freeman between two right-handed sluggers like Acuna and Donaldson will greatly increase the number of hittable pitches he sees. Freeman himself also pointed out that it creates a nightmare for late inning pitching match-ups as spots two through eight would look like this:
Right/ Left/ Right/ Left/ Catcher's spot (L or R) / Switch/ Right
That, however, leaves the Braves with a surprisingly thin bench of super-utility men Charlie Culberson and Johan Camargo, and journeyman Matt Joyce. The two super-subs will likely serve as primary back-ups to every position except for centerfield and catcher.
Projected Rotation
It's safe to say that the Braves opening day rotation will look vastly different by the end of the month, much less the end of the season. Injuries to Mike Foltynewicz, Kevin Gausman, and the ongoing rehab of Mike Soroka have left the Braves with an uber-fluid collection of young, talented, unproven arms. The current rotation to start the year shakes out like this:
Julio Teheran (R)
Bryse Wilson (R)
Kyle Wright (R)
Sean Newcomb (L)
Max Fried (L)
By end of the season, it could very well look like this:
Mike Foltynewicz (R)
Julio Teheran (R)
Kevin Gausman (R)
Bryse Wilson (R)/Kyle Wright (R)
Sean Newcomb (L)
The uncertainty and inexperience make it hard to come up with realistic projections for this rotation. Will Teheran return to All-Star form? Will Foltynewicz build on last year's stellar campaign. Which young pitcher will earn a permanent spot in the rotation?
Bullpen
The Braves famously made ZERO significant bullpen additions this offseason, electing to stick with A.J. Minter (L) and Arodys Vizcaino (R) for the eight and ninth innings and the combination of Jesse Biddle (L), Shane Carle (R), Luke Jackson (R), Chad Sobotka (R), Josh Tomlin (R), Wes Parsons (R), and Jonny Venters (L) for middle relief. That's right -- the Braves will carry EIGHT bullpen arms. Darren O'Day will be returning at some point to take one of those spots but the five remaining slots could be a revolving door until someone separates from the pack as a reliable option.
Best Case Season
A repeat as NL East champs (or even a Wild Card berth) would likely include the following best-case scenarios regarding health & production:
Josh Donaldson stays healthy and plays 120+ games
Ender Inciarte has a bounce back year offensively and returns to the .290ish batting average and .350 OBP he had in 2016 & 2017
Freddie Freeman has a standard Freddie Freeman year (.300 BA/.400 OBP/ 25+ HR/ 90+ RBI)
Ocuna follows his Rookie of the Year campaign with an All-Star level season
Ozzie Albies strikes out less and improves his OBP (116 SO/.305 OBP in 2018)
Mike Foltynewicz pitches like an All-Star again
The bullpen over-achieves
At LEAST one of the Braves young pitchers (Kyle Wright, Bryse Wilson, Mike Soroka, Max Fried, Sean Newcomb) becomes a legit big-league starter
Dansby Swanson improves on offense (.235 BA the last two seasons)
Best Case Record: 91 - 71
Statistical Projections
Projected Record: 82 - 80 (3rd place in most projections)
Title Run Projection: 88 - 74 (2nd place)
Ronald Acuna, Jr. Season Stats:
Starting Pitcher Statistics (from Talking Chop):
Season Outlook
The 2018 Braves overachieved to win won one of the weakest divisions in baseball, a division that is VASTLY improved entering the 2019 season. The Mets have one of the best rotations in the National League, the Phillies added TWO former MVPs (Bryce Harper & Andrew McCutchen) and an All-Star catcher (J.T. Realmuto), and the Nationals appear to be the most balanced team in the division. The Braves are highly unlikely to duplicate their absurd 2018 division record of 52-24, and it's very possible the Braves could win less games despite being a better overall team. A healthy Josh Donaldson provides a huge boost to an already solid lineup, and Ronald Acuna is already receiving MVP buzz after the torrid second half to his Rookie of the Year campaign. It seems all-but-forgotten that the lineup boasts two other All-Stars in Ozzie Albies & Nick Markakis, and the Braves have two stellar bench options in Culberson & Camargo.
All that said, the Braves season will live and die on the performance of their young starters and their middle relief. With Foltynewicz, Teheran, and Gausman providing a solid (but far from elite) 1-2-3, the Braves must find answers in middle innings to help support their bevy of young starters and provide a bridge to their surprisingly reliable duo of Minter and Vizcaino at the end of games. Barring catastrophic injuries, the Braves project to be a winning team again, but it remains to be seen if they can find the pitching necessary to repeat atop what should be one of most competitive divisions in the National League.
GO BRAVES!!!
