With the 2019 NFL Combine and Pro Days complete, it’s a perfect time to look back at Title Run’s evaluation of the 2018 quarterback class. The original article can be found HERE, where we stated the then-unconventional opinion that Baker Mayfield was the best prospect in the class. Here’s a look at how each of the five first-round signal callers from last year’s draft fared as rookies (in order of their 2018 pre-draft ranking).
#5) Josh Allen, Buffalo
Pre-draft Assessment: Good athlete with a big arm. Talented, but overhyped. Alarmingly inaccurate and never won anything in college despite playing lesser competition. Unpolished and nowhere near ready to be an NFL starter as a rookie.
Projection: High probability of becoming a bust, especially if forced to play right away.
2018 Recap:
The Bills went 6-10 with league’s 30th ranked overall offense and 31st passing offense. Allen was woefully inaccurate and failed to make plays down the field with his big arm -- two things we predicted in our pre-draft breakdown. He did show impressive grit and athleticism, leading the Bills in rushing with 631 yards, including 4 games with 95+ rushing yards. His season stats are below:
Verdict: Our pre-draft assessment appears spot on. Allen was forced to play much earlier than he should have and struggled with accuracy and consistency. The biggest surprise was his rushing, as his 631 rushing yards was second only to fellow rookie Lamar Jackson among quarterbacks, and his eight rushing TD led all NFL signal-callers. Allen is still very much a project, and it remains to be seen whether he can hone his outstanding physical tools into high-level quarterback play.
#4) Lamar Jackson, Baltimore
Pre-draft Assessment: Michael Vick-level athlete whose freakish speed and running ability will help him make plays until his passing catches up. Needs to improve his footwork to help his accuracy.
Projection: Not ready to play right away, and needs the right system. Is a better passer than he’s given credit for, and has the talent to be a legit starter with enough time.
2018 Recap: Jackson took over a 4-5 Ravens offense in week nine for the injured Joe Flacco. The Ravens finished the season going 6-1 in Jackson’s starts and averaging 25.1 ppg on their way to a 10-6 record and a playoff berth. Jackson wasn’t asked to do much (just 22 pass attempts per game), but he threw only two INT during that seven game stretch while adding an additional 79.4 yards on the ground, and leading all NFL quarterbacks in rushing with 695 yards. His season stats are below:
Verdict:
Jackson exceeded expectations as a passer with his 58% completion rate ranking second only to Baker Mayfield among rookies. The Ravens masterfully schemed their offense to mask his deficiencies and highlight his athleticism and were able to ride Jackson’s hot play in the month of December to a playoff berth. The arrow on Jackson is pointing way up.
#3) Josh Rosen, Arizona
Pre-draft Assessment: Polished, accurate, and extremely smart, but with questions about durability and attitude.
Projection: Lower ceiling, higher floor. Has all the tools to be a good NFL quarterback. Unlikely to play as a rookie behind Sam Bradford and Mike Glennon.
2018 Recap:
The Cardinals were the worst offense in the NFL, ranking last in EVERY statistical category on their way to a NFL-worst 3-13 record. Rosen was unable to generate a single 300-yard passing game while being sacked at the second highest rate in the NFL. His season stats are below:
Verdict: Rosen’s rookie year was nearly impossible to accurately assess behind the worst offensive line in football (missing ALL five starters by the end of the year) and weapons that were either injured (David Johnson) or aging (Larry Fitzgerald). He was statistically one of the worst quarterbacks in the NFL, but those rookie numbers are not an accurate reflection of his ability or his upside. With a new coach and anything resembling competent offensive line play, he should show drastic improvement in year two.
#2) Sam Darnold, New York Jets
Pre-draft Assessment: Streaky, riverboat gambler that makes a lot of plays, but also turns the ball over at an alarming rate. Competitive and a good leader.
Projection: Should develop into a good NFL starter. Expect a LOT inconsistency and turnovers if he plays as a rookie.
2018 Recap:
The Jets offense was woeful, ranking 29th in yards and 22nd in points on their way to a 4-12 record. Darnold led all-rookie quarterbacks with 19 total turnovers, but also notched 300-yards games against Green Bay & Miami. His stats are below:
Verdict: Nailed it. Darnold’s rookie year was an up-and-down mixture of highlights and head-scratching missteps. He showed moxy and flashes of the passing acumen that put him near the top of the draft, but was also hampered by the streaky accuracy and turnovers that characterized his final year at USC. The addition of one of the NFL's best weapons, Le'Veon Bell, should be a huge help heading into his sophomore season.
#1) Baker Mayfield, Cleveland
Pre-draft Assessment: The most polished and game-ready QB in the class. Mobile, with uncanny accuracy, outstanding footwork, and underrated arm strength. Highly productive in college and a proven winner.
Projection: At worse, a solid NFL starter -- at best, an elite passer with pinpoint accuracy. Might need time to adjust from a spread scheme to a pro-style scheme.
2018 Recap:
The Browns went 7-9 after famously losing two early season games on missed kicks in the waning moments. Mayfield was the star of their offense, taking off in the second half of the season after Freddie Kitchens took over as head coach and play-caller. The Browns offense ranked 13th in yards, 20th in points (22.4), and 14th in passing yards. Mayfield’s stats are below:
Verdict: Mayfield was the best QB in this class by MILES. He set an NFL rookie record with 27 TD passes and looks every bit like the potential star you’d expect from a QB drafted No.1 overall.
Final 2018 Rookie QB Power Rankings
With all of the data in, here are the revised final rankings for the 2018 quarterback class.
5) Josh Rosen
4) Josh Allen
3) Sam Darnold
2) Lamar Jackson
1) Baker Mayfield
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