Picture courtesy of NFLGreece
I can’t take it anymore. I’ve read and watched as pro and college football pundits weigh in on the 2018 class of QB prospects, and my stomach turns as I hear evaluations and draft projections that are so different from what my own eyes have seen on film. The madness must stop. It’s my turn to weigh in on the top-five prospects in this class and give you my own layman’s expertise on their NFL prospects.
The Criteria
I’m sure the pro scouts have a much longer list of evaluation points, but from my layman’s point of view it comes down to these five things (in no particular order):
Accuracy - Does he deliver the ball on time and to the right spots? Does he have touch? The magic number for college QBs is usually 60% completion rate (preferably in consecutive years). If a QB hits that mark it’s usually a good indicator that his accuracy will translate to the next level. The proliferation of spread offenses makes completion percentage a little more difficult to evaluate since a lot of the throws are short, predetermined reads, or RPO (run-pass-option) concepts. This is where a stat like “yards per attempt” is helpful. A high Y/A (8+ is solid) gives you a good idea of whether that QB is dinking and dunking or really driving the ball down the field. That along with the 2 x 60% measure is a good baseline for accuracy.
Some examples of successful high draft picks that met that criteria: Andrew Luck, Aaron Rodgers, Jared Goff, Ben Roethlisberger, Philip Rivers, Marcus Mariota, Alex Smith, Peyton Manning
Some 1st round QB busts that didn’t meet that criteria: Ryan Leaf (55%, 52%), Akili Smith (58%, 54%), Jake Locker (58.4%, 55.4%), Kyle Boller (53.4%, 49.3%), J.P. Losman (59.5%, 57.4%)
Arm Strength - There are two key components to arm strength -- velocity and distance. Some signal-callers have one and not the other (ex: Brees has zip, but not distance) and some have both (ex:Aaron Rodgers, Matt Stafford). The bottom line is whether their arm strength translates to actual game play. Can the QB make all the throws? Deep out? Fade down the sideline? Seam route in front of the safety?
This needs to be said -- arm strength is GROSSLY overrated. It’s the one attribute that’s easiest to see and it’s sexy. It’s also the thing that got nearly every bust on the list above drafted in the first round. There are just too many examples of first round duds with rockets arms that didn’t have any game at the pro level -- Akili Smith, Jamarcus Russell, Josh Freeman, Brandon Weeden, Chris Weinke, Kyle Boller...you get the idea.
Athleticism - Speed, elusiveness, and escape ability. This isn’t a must, but it’s a plus if the QB has it.
Production - Specifically -- completion percentage, TDs, INTs, and WINS
Intangibles - Leadership, toughness, the “clutch” gene. A lot of this comes from here-say and word-of-mouth since very few pundits have any real interactions with these players or their teams. It’s the one measurement on this list that you can’t really evaluate on film.
Josh Allen
Arm Strength: A+
He has the ability to make stupidly impressive throws like the one below
Athleticism: B+
Surprisingly fast (4.75 40-yd dash) and a very productive runner. His mixture of size & athleticism is comparable with the Tim Tebows and Dak Prescotts of the world.
Best vertical, #2 broad jump, and best 3-cone score among QBs at the combine. The dude is an athlete.
Accuracy: D+
56.3%, 6.7 Y/A - The low completion percentage would be forgivable if Allen registered a high yards-per-attempt number. That would mean that his low completion rate was the result of attempting a lot of long throws. Longer throws are harder to complete, but the ones you DO complete jack up your Y/A number. Allen's meager 6.7 Y/A suggests that he just isn't connecting with receivers period...whether deep or short. Not good for a guy who's selling point is his big arm.
Production: D
Wyoming was just 16-10 in his starts and Allen only threw 16 TD in eleven games in 2017.
Intangibles: Unknown
There’s not a lot being said about Allen’s intangibles -- good or bad. He's highly confident, but there doesn't seem to be the usual level of insight on his leadership, work ethic, competitiveness, etc.
What I like:
Raw Talent - He’s got size (6-5, 233), moves well, and has elite arm strength. I don't know if I've ever seen a QB that throws the deep out route with as much ease as he does.
Playing Style - Allen plays hard. He is an improv master, he never gives up on a play, and you don't have to watch long before you see him running circles around the field to find an open receiver or flipping himself over a defender to pick up a first down.
What I don’t like:
Lack of Production
In 2016 Allen threw for 3,203 yards and 28 TDs and ran for another 523 and seven TD. In his eleven 2017 games those numbers plummeted to 1,812 yards and just 16 TD in the air, and 204 yards and five TD on the ground.. That doesn’t exactly scream “franchise QB.”
Allen’s teams didn’t win at a big level playing in the Mountain West Conference. Carson Wentz and Joe Flacco played on elite FCS schools that competed for national championships. Ben Roethlisberger led his Miami (OH) team to an undefeated record and top-10 ranking. Allen’s Wyoming squad went 8-3 in his starts last year and he didn’t play well in any of his games against high-level competition [Iowa (23-of-40, 174 yards, 2 INT) and Oregon (9-of-24, 64 yards, INT)]
Accuracy - People are quick to criticize Lamar’s Jackson’s accuracy, but Allen comes in with an underwhelming career 56% completion percentage. His paltry 6.7 Y/A indicates that either he’s throwing a lot of short passes or he’s just flat-out inaccurate. That’s a HUGE red flag for the reasons explained above.
NFL Comparisons
Ceiling - Daunte Culpepper
Immense talent that leads to flashes of greatness but not sustained excellence
Floor - Jamarcus Russell
Colossal bust that was overrated because of his other-worldly arm talent
In-between - Mike Glennon/Brock Osweiler
Serviceable player, but not a star
Bottom Line: Josh Allen is NOT Carson Wentz. He’s a boom-or-bust prospect that lacks the polish, production, accuracy, and WINS that Wentz had coming out of North Dakota State. Allen would really benefit from a “redshirt” year or two to improve his footwork and accuracy before becoming a full-time starter. If a team is patient enough to let him develop, the sky is the limit for him. If you take him with plans to make him an immediate starter...well, you’ve been warned.
Sam Darnold
Arm Strength: B
Darnold’s arm isn’t quite as strong as it’s made out to be, but it’s still good. He’s got better than average arm strength, he’s just not Aaron Rodgers.
Athleticism: B-
His combine scores were rather unimpressive, but on film he’s surprisingly elusive in the pocket and a sneaky good runner.
Accuracy: B-
63.1%, 8.6 Y/A, 26 TD, 13 INT
Has great touch on intermediate throws & the completion rate is good, but the INT rate is too high.
Production: B+
Soph. & Jr. Years = 7,000+ yards, 57 TD, Back-to-back 10 win seasons, PAC-12 championship
Intangibles: A
Plays extremely hard and appears to be a good leader. He's a proven winner, and the memorable 2017 Rose Bowl shows he has the "clutch” gene.
What I like:
Darnold seems to have “it.” His arm is good and he’s sneaky athletic, but the biggest selling point seems to be his grit and competitiveness. He’s tough, he plays hard, and he seems to truly make the players around better. It's easy to see a lot of Matt Ryan or Andrew Luck in him -- players who in college had a certain moxy that was almost palpable when you watched them. Darnold appears to have that as well.
What I don’t like:
Turnovers - Darnold’s 22 INT/fumbles led all FBS players this past year. Not exactly a selling point for a franchise QB.
Hero Ball - Darnold has a lot Jameis Winston in his game. A lot of his turnovers simply come down to him trying to do too much. He has a habit of forcing balls into tight windows down the hashes, and several of his fumbles came from trying to make an impossible play when he was already in a defender’s grasp.
Declining Accuracy -- The interceptions are part of an overall decline in accuracy from 2016 to 2017 (67% to 63%). His Y/A were almost identical (8.6 to 8.4)
Throwing Motion - Darnold has a longer-than-ideal wind-up release that drops the ball down and occasionally causes his throws to sail. It’s not Tim Tebow bad, but it’s very noticeable. You get a good look at him dropping down in the clip below.
NFL Comparisons
Ceiling - Andrew Luck
Prototype franchise QB
Floor - Rex Grossman
Passable starting QB with occasional flashes of brilliance
In-between - Jake Plummer
Gritty leader with great intangibles; Consistent winner who could lead his team to victory without having great numbers
Bottom Line: Darnold has a slightly lower ceiling than Allen but a FAR higher floor. He’s not a slam-dunk to become a franchise QB, but he’s a pretty safe bet to become a competent one. His accuracy can be a bit streaky, but he’s been successful against high-level competition, appears to be a great leader, and has the size, arm, and athleticism to be successful at the next level. That said, his high turnover rate should give any team pause about making him their day-one starter as rookie.
Lamar Jackson
Arm Strength: B+
Jackson throws with an effortless Vick-like flick of the wrist and spins a beautiful deep ball. Look at how effortlessly he launches this bomb:
Athleticism: A+ (No explanation necessary)
Accuracy: C-
59.1% completions, 8.5 Y/A
Jackson has to be get better throwing on the run (especially since his selling point is athleticism) and has to be more accurate on intermediate routes.
Production: B+
Won the Heisman in 2016 and totalled 96 TD the last two years. Amazing stats, but not quite enough wins in big games.
Intangibles: B
Jackson is known to keep a low profile and rumored to have very good character. He made big plays in clutch moments even in games his teams lost.
What I like:
Athleticism/Production - He came out of nowhere to win the Heisman his sophomore year with 51 total TD on jaw-dropping plays that couldn’t help but elicit Mike Vick comparisons. He followed that by increasing his passing yards, rushing yards, and completion percentage in 2017. He also played very well against the best teams in his conference (FSU and Clemson).
Growth - Jackson improved every year as a passer, and his numbers clearly show that. Every year he’s increased in yards and completion percentage.
Play Action Game - Jackson’s best throws come off play action, and he is very good with his ball-handling and carrying out fakes to buy time and lure defenders out of position.
What I don’t like:
Accuracy - The concerns about Jackson’s footwork are real. He’s throws with a very narrow base (feet too close together) that leads to a lot of his intermediate throws sailing and an occasional deep ball hanging up too long. As mobile as he is, he isn’t great throwing short & intermediate throws on the run and seems to be more comfortable uncorking roll-out bombs with his deft deep touch. Check out his narrow base below:
Size/Injury potential - Mike Vick was a running QB who weighed in at a stout 6 feet, 210 lbs. coming out of Va Tech. He was roughly the size of an average NFL running back. Jackson has shown incredible toughness throughout his career, but he weighed in at a super-light 200 pounds at the NFL combine. Although he never missed a game at Louisville due to injury, his slight frame and weight raise questions about his long-term durability.
NFL Comparisons
Ceiling - Mike Vick
Freak athlete who developed into a proficient passer
Floor - Terrelle Pryor
Elite athlete who DIDN’T develop into a proficient passer
In-between - Tyrod Taylor
Game manager that balances acceptable passing with exceptional athleticism
Baker Mayfield
Arm Strength: B-
Not elite, but he makes all the throws. His height limits his range on deep passes (taller QBs can throw further because the have a longer arc length), and his deep balls occasionally float allowing defenders to make a play on the ball.
Athleticism: B
Mayfield’s combine tests were surprisingly pedestrian (4.84 40-yd dash, 29-inch vertical, 9-3 broad jump) and didn’t really match the athleticism he showed on film. The combine numbers say he’s a run-of-the-mill athlete, but the film says that he’s crazy elusive and a very effective runner.
Accuracy: A+
70.5% completions, 11.5 Y/A ⇐ That number is ABSURD. Not only is he completing a stupidly high percentage of his passes, he’s doing it with long throws. He literally averaged a first down every time he dropped back to pass.
The film study supports Mayfield’s accuracy. He throws with unbelievable anticipation and is repeatedly seen throwing receivers open against tight coverage. Look at these two DIMES below:
Production: A+
43 TDs, 6 INT, 4,627 yds; Three-time Big 12 Champion, 2017 Heisman Trophy winner
Intangibles: B+
Mayfield is a competitor. He went from walk-on to starting QB at TWO different Big-12 schools! He was the starting QB at Texas Tech his freshman year until he got hurt and some guy named Patrick Mahomes took his starting job. He then walked on at OU and went on to become a Heisman Trophy winner. He’s a proven winner, his teammates and coaches love him, and he definitely has the “clutch” gene. That said, his sideline antics, trash-talking, and DUI run-in raise enough concerns to keep him from being a “A.” You know, stuff like this:
What I like:
Accuracy - See the numbers above. They are beyond impressive.
Production - Mayfield threw for 84 TD and 8,400+ yards his junior and senior years.
Winning - Oklahoma’s average record the last three years was 11-2. His teams won three conference championships and made two college football playoffs.
What I don’t like:
Spread QB Curse - Mayfield has never played under center and will probably face the typical growing pains of adjusting to an NFL offense. What will help is that he (unlike many spread QBs) has very good footwork and throwing mechanics.
NFL Comparisons
Ceiling - Drew Brees
Undersized pocket passer with surgically precise accuracy
Floor - Chase Daniel
Reliable career back-up
In-between - Doug Flutie
Undersized improv genius who won games but still wasn't considered a franchise QB
Bottom Line: I think Mayfield has the most complete resume & skill set of any QB going into the draft. He’s more accurate than Darnold, has better fundamentals than Jackson, is more athletic than Rosen, and has superior production to Allen. He’s doesn’t have the same upside as the other QBs on this list, but part of that is because he’s already a much more finished product. As long as he can adjust to an NFL playbook I think he has a very good chance of being successful at the next level.
Josh Rosen
Arm Strength: B-
Not elite, but he makes all the throws.
Athleticism: C-
He’s fairly mobile, but he never looks comfortable scrambling and his 4.92 40-yd dash won’t have anyone confusing him for Lamar Jackson.
Accuracy: B+
He scans the field and gets the ball out quickly and on time. Completion numbers are solid (62.6%, 8.3 Y/A, 26 TD, 10 INT)
Production: C+
His overall record as a starter was just 17-14, but UCLA made bowl games in the two years Rosen was healthy, and he threw for a combined 49 TD to 21 INT in those seasons. UCLA was 1-6 without him during his 3 years in Westwood.
Intangibles: C
Reports on Rosen’s intangibles all over the map. The two things everyone agrees on is that he's extremely smart and fairly cocky. He's admitted to the second one himself. His injuries led to questions about his passion and toughness, and there are whispers that he's difficult to coach. On the other hand, he attempted to play through two separate concussions during his junior year until being forced to leave both games by the coaching staff. Not exactly the mark of a guy who is soft or apathetic. He also showed great clutch play in the AMAZING 34-point comeback win over Texas A & M, but was that an anomaly? Their doesn't seem to be much consensus on what kind of leader Rosen will be at the next level.
What I like:
NFL Readiness - His game is very clean and polished. He’s accurate, reads the field well, and gets rid of the ball like an NFL QB. His footwork is near flawless and he played in a pro-style offense of traditional five and seven-step drops and showed himself to be very adept at play action. Look at how clean his footwork & release are below:
What I don’t like:
Lack of Curb Appeal - Rosen is the pepperoni pizza of this draft. You’ve seen QB’s like him before and you more or less know what to expect. He’s got all the classic ingredients that make a good NFL QB, he’s just not sexy. He can’t improv like Mayfield, he’s not fast like Jackson, he doesn’t have Darnold’s grit, and he doesn’t have Allen’s elite arm strength. At the same time, it’s also hard to find many weaknesses in his game. Rosen is a reliable Toyota Prius in a draft where there are Camaros and Mustangs available.
Injury Concerns - Rosen only played six games his sophomore year due to a shoulder injury that required surgery, and missed his 2017 bowl game due to a concussion. You generally never want to hear “shoulder surgery” or "concussion" in any discussion about a QB prospect.
NFL Comparisons
Ceiling - Matt Ryan/Carson Palmer
Classic pocket passer w/Pro-bowl, borderline elite potential
Floor - Kyle Orton
Solid but unremarkable pocket passer; passable starting QB
In-between - Sam Bradford
Good enough to always have a job, but average enough to always be questioned
Bottom Line: Rosen’s college film looks very similar to Jared Goff’s. He’s a polished, efficient old-school pocket passer that played in a pro-style offense. He’s not flashy, but he’s consistent, good off play-action, and accurate with very good footwork and mechanics. What does all that mean? He’s a Honda Civic -- safe, but not sexy. He’s highly unlikely to be a bust, but he doesn’t necessarily project as a future Hall of Famer either.
Superlatives
Best Arm: Josh Allen -- It’s not even close. He uncorked this 70-yard bomb at the combine that was just ridiculous.
Most Accurate: Baker Mayfield -- His career LOW completion rate is 64%. That was his freshman year. The last three years -- 68%, 71%, 70%. The spread/RPO scheme at OU does slightly inflate those numbers since it includes a lot of screens and shorter throws, but the film CLEARLY shows he has plus accuracy pushing the ball down the field as well. He also threw well at both the combine and his Pro Day (62-70).
Honorable Mention: Josh Rosen -- He completed 62% of his passes this year, but that number was severely hurt by 31 dropped passes. Yes, 31. That’s mind-boggling. He played in a pro-style scheme, so his completion percentage translates a bit more favorably to the NFL than Mayfield’s.
Least likely to be a bust: Josh Rosen - He’s got the size, accuracy, arm strength and polish to be stick around the league for a long time. He may not end up being Matt Ryan, but there is very little chance he turns into Ryan Leaf. If he doesn’t work out as a starter, it’s easy to picture him having a Brian Hoyer/Josh McKown type of career as a perennial back-up/spot starter.
Best Athlete: Lamar Jackson. No explanation required. Just watch the cut he makes at the 20-yard line:
Final Rankings
5. Josh Allen - A big arm with below-average accuracy, and below-average production against below-average competition? I’ll pass. Take him if you want, but the numbers AND the film say you have no idea what you’re getting. You could be drafting Jamarcus Russell, Matt Stafford or a player somewhere in-between.
4. Lamar Jackson - He’s too unpolished to be an immediate starter, but give him 1-2 years to watch (a la Mike Vick) and he has the chance to be absolute dynamite. Of course there’s also a chance he could end up being the next Terrelle Pryor or Tavaris Jackson.
3. Josh Rosen - Rosen has a lower ceiling than #4 and #5, but a MUCH higher floor. He’s not a guaranteed star, but has the tools to be -- at WORST -- a competent spot starter. The best things is that Rosen has the polish to step in and play right now. With the right system and scheme he could turn into Alex Smith, but he just as easily become the next Brian Hoyer.
2. Sam Darnold - Darnold’s mobility, toughness, and leadership are likely to make him a good pro...eventually. I just happen to be in the minority that think he’s not a slam-dunk to be a competent day one starter. His wind-up release and turnovers (22 -- the most in FBS) are red-flags for a player projected to go #1.
1. Baker Mayfield - You can’t beat Mayfield’s combination of production, accuracy, athleticism, and on-field intangibles. He’s already a polished passer with great footwork, accuracy and competitiveness. The biggest concerns are his height (6 feet, 5/8 inch) and the fact that he talks trash and got in some off-field trouble. Personally, that’s not enough to stop me from taking this guy in the top-10. I doubt he’s the next Drew Brees or Russell Wilson (common comparisons for him), but I think there is ZERO chance he turns out to be the next Johnny Manziel.
What are your thoughts? Like, share, or comment below!
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