With training camp now in full swing, this first Falcons preview will focus on the offense. Here are six things you need to know about the Atlanta offensive attack heading into the 2018 season.
1. Depth Chart
Barring injuries, this is the probable depth chart for week one against the Eagles. The projected starters are marked in red.
There are three noteworthy changes: Brandon Fusco replaces Wes Schweitzer at guard, Calvin Ridley replaces Taylor Gabriel as the #3 receiver, and there will be a competition at fullback to see whether Luke McNitt or Ricky Ortiz replaces the underwhelming Derrick Coleman. Fusco’s replacement of Schweitzer is a move from the #50 guard in the league to the #18 guard (according to Pro Football Focus). On paper, ALL of these moves appear to be upgrades.
Also keep an eye on rookie Ito Smith. He's a ridiculously shifty back with good hands and big play potential, and I believe he could be a factor on offense even if Freeman and Coleman are completely healthy.
2. Reasons the Falcons offense stunk (besides Steve Sarkisian)
Statistically speaking, the Falcon’s produced at the level of a top-10 offense. Here are a few stats that bear that out.
Based on the numbers, You would expect Atlanta to EASILY be a top-10 offense. Instead they tied for 15th in the league in scoring at 22.1 points per game -- a precipitous 12-point drop from the year before. So what torpedoed their scoring output?
1. Turnovers -- NINE Fumbles (5th in NFL)
2. Drops -- Most dropped passes in the NFL according to the AJC (28), 7th according to PFF (34), The worst 3rd down drop rate in the NFL
3. Injuries on the offensive line -- The Falcons famously had ZERO games missed by the offensive line in 2016. That was not the case last season.
Ryan Schraeder missed two games early in the season and was replaced with Ty Sambrailo. Pro Football Focus lists Schraeder as the #29 tackle in the league with a 77.8 grade (very good for a right tackle) while Sambrailo graded at 46.4 in his two starts. That's a BIG drop.
Starter Wes Schweitzer was listed as the #54 guard by PFF, and fellow starter Andy Levitre (#17 Guard by PFF), missed the last five games and was replaced by Ben Garland (#50 guard by PFF). The point is that Levitre’s injury led to a SIGNIFICANT drop off in guard play that was evident in both playoff games.
3. Matt Ryan was unlucky in 2017
Here is what Pro Football Focus had to say about Ryan's 2017 performance:
Outside of red-zone performance (career-low passer rating and completion percentage for Ryan in 2017), perhaps the biggest key to the Falcons this season is finding a four-leaf clover. In 2017, Ryan had the lowest rate of turnover-worthy plays – a great stat to lead. However, he also had (also courtesy of our PFF Forecast preview): - The worst drop rate on third down - More interceptions from non-turnover worthy throws (eight) than actual turnover-worthy throws (six) - Highest rate of turnover-worthy throws ending up as actual interceptions
In other words, the ball had a really bad habit of finding its way into the hands of the other team, even when Ryan put the ball exactly where it needed to be.
4. The Falcons red zone offense was woefully bad
While Matt Ryan was extraordinarily unlucky last year, he was flat-out bad in the red zone. He had a career-low red zone completion rate of 47.1%, and was an astonishing 5/19 on red zone targets to Julio Jones. That includes 1/16 on targets to Julio inside the 10-yard line. Yes, you read that correctly.
The Falcons were 23rd in the NFL in red zone touchdown percentage at 49.18%, a 15% drop from their 2016 TD rate. If ever there were an appropriate place to point the finger at Steve Sarkisian, this is it.
Falcons fans still haven't forgotten this...
...Or the 2nd down shovel pass to Terron Ward in the last minute of the game against the Eagles. That call led to the last 60 seconds of the clip below:
This once again leads to the discussion on Julio's pedestrian TD numbers (three last season) and trying to figure out why his TD output is so far below that of other elite receivers. Why not just throw him jump balls in the red zone??
As great as Julio is, jump balls have never been his strength. He doesn’t high-point the ball particularly well, and if you're brave enough to re-watch the end of that Eagles game you'll see the ball go right through Julio's hands on two of the "jump balls" Matt Ryan threw him with the season on the line. As great as he is, that's just not what he does best. It's also rare to see Julio get one-on-one red zone match-ups that allow for the easy fade/slant option. He regularly receives bracket coverage near the goal line, forcing the Falcons to look for other options or force low-percentage contested throws to him. The latter is what ended their season.
5. The Falcons running backs MUST be a bigger part of the passing game
Devonta Freeman's receiving numbers
2017 - 36 catches, 46 targets, 317 yd in 14 games; 2.57 Rec/3.28 Tgts/22.6 yd per game(4 fumbles)
2016 - 54 catches, 65 targets, 462 yd in 16 games; 3.35 Rec/4 Tgts/28.9 yd per game
2015 - 73 catches, 97 targets, 578 yd in 15 games; 4.56 Rec/6 Tgts/36.1 yd per game
Tevin Coleman's receiving numbers
2017 - 27 catches, 39 targets, 299 yds in 15 games; 1.68 Rec/2.43 Tgts/18.7 yd per game
2016 - 31 catches, 40 targets, 421 yds in 13 games; 2.38 Rec/3.1 Tgts/32.4 yds per game
2015 - 2 catches, 11 targets, 14 yds in 12 games;
Combined:
2017 - 63 Catches, 85 targets, 616 yds; 4.25 rec/5.91 Tgts/41.3 yds/9.77 YPC
2016 - 87 Catches, 105 targets, 883 yds; 5.63 rec/7.1 Tgts/61.3 yds/10.1 YPC
2015 - 75 catches, 108 targets, 592 yds; 4.6 rec/6.1 Tgts/37 yd
It's an oversimplification to say the Falcons need to throw to their backs more -- that's dictated by things like the opponent's scheme, linebacker matchups, and the extent to which the backs are needed in pass protection. But...the Falcons need to throw to their backs more. Coleman and Freeman are too effective as receivers to see a 20% drop in their targets.
6. Tight Ends aren’t as important to the Falcons offense as you might think
Here are receiving totals for Falcons tight ends during their historic 2016 run compared with their 2017 production.
Tamme - 22 Rec, 31 Tgts, 210 yds, 3 TD
Hooper - 19 Rec, 27 Tgts, 271 yds, 3 TD
Toilolo - 13 Rec, 19 Tgts, 264 yds, 2 TD
Others - 4 rec, 6 Tgts, 43 yds, 2 TD
2016 Total - 58 Rec, 83 Tgts, 788 yds, 13.6 YPC, 10 TD
Hooper - 49 Rec, 65 Tgrs, 526 yds, 3 TD
Toilolo - 12 Rec, 14 Tgts, 122, 1 TD
2017 Total - 61 Rec, 79 Tgts, 648 yds, 10.6 YPC, 4 TD
The number of receptions and targets are nearly identical, meaning the use of tight ends was essentially unchanged from Shanahan to Sarkisian. BUT, the yards per catch and touchdowns were significantly higher. Is this because of personnel? It doesn’t seem that way. Jacob Tamme was good, but by no means an All-Pro, and he only played in eight games during the 2016 campaign. That means blocking specialist Levine Toilolo and a rookie Austin Hooper carried the bulk of the receiving load during that historic stretch run. The drops in yardage and touchdowns are likely tied to the overall drop in Matt Ryan’s production for the reasons already discussed -- his TD passes dropped from 38 to 20, and his yards per attempt dropped from 9.3 to 7.7. The bottom line is that the Falcons don’t need elite or even above-average tight end play to be an elite offense -- they just need Matt Ryan playing at his highest level.
2018 Outlook
With the additions of Ridley and Fusco, the Falcons' offensive personnel appears to be even better than it was during the 2016 Super Bowl run. Assuming the drop rate returns to normal and Matt Ryan doesn't break the record for deflected interceptions he set last year, improvement seems inevitable. If Julio, Devonta, and the offensive line stay healthy, the improvement should be significant. If all of those things happen AND Steve Sarkisian improves his red zone play calling in year two, the Falcons seem like a lock to be a top-five offense that could easily top the 28 PPG or even 30 PPG mark.
The obvious focus will be on red zone production. Austin Hooper and Calvin Ridley have drawn RAVE reviews for their offseason work, and I personally believe Hooper might be the beneficiary of a big bump in red zone targets. Hooper's M.O. at Stanford was his ability to high point the ball and make really tough contested catches like the ones below -- something he hasn't shown consistently in the NFL.
If the reports about his offseason progress are accurate, he could be the one of the big keys to solving the Falcons red zone woes.
That's it for now. Check back soon for an overview of the Falcons' defense. Also make sure to like and share this article!
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