1) The defensive depth is ridiculous...
Here's a look at the projected depth chart (shown in their standard "Cover 3" alignment):
If Deadrin Senat earns a starting spot at defensive tackle, Atlanta will roll out a unit where all 11 players are Falcons draft picks -- nine of those taken in the last four drafts. That is absolutely insane.
2) ...except at linebacker
The Falcons are perilously thin at linebacker with only five players likely to make the final roster. Deion Jones was a Pro-Bowler and DeVondre Campbell made huge strides in his second year as well, but 2017 third-round pick Duke Riley struggled mightily during his rookie year. Despite his outstanding athleticism, Riley was an alarmingly poor tackler. He took bad angles and struggled mightily to bring people down in the open-field. His poor play combined with a meniscus injury (that caused him to miss an entire month) resulted in a strikingly sub-par rookie year. To make matters worse, he looked equally lost in the Falcons first preseason game as he continued to struggle with tackling, angles, and making the correct reads.
The Falcons have been entered the season thin at linebacker in each of the last three years, causing mid-season signings like Philip Wheeler in October of 2015 and Sean Weatherspoon in October of last year. They also experimented with Vic Beasley at strong side linebacker and moved safety Kemal Ishmael to weakside linebacker in hopes of adding more depth last year. The Ishmael move added great depth and athleticism for nickel packages, while the Beasley experiment was abandoned and Beasley returned full-time to defensive end this offseason.
Watch for seventh-round pick Foye Oluokon (who we highlighted in our post-draft re-cap) to push Riley for playing time at weakside linebacker. Oluokon is fast, active, and showed much better instincts than Riley in Thursday’s game against the Jets. It’s far too early to give up Riley completely (there are some already calling for him to be cut), but he needs to show dramatic improvement if he’s going to retain a starting spot -- or even make the team.
3) Be ready for a DIME package
Word on the street is that second years defensive back Damontae Kazee improved by leaps and bounds this offseason; his 11 tackles in the first preseason game certainly seem to confirm that. Kazee had a reputation as a ball-hawking corner in college, and accumulated 15 INT over his career at San Diego State. When teams go with four receiver packages you could very well see Kazee sliding into Keanu Neal’s safety spot, Neal bumping down to linebacker, and the other linebacker replaced with either Brian Poole or second round pick Isaiah Oliver as the nickel corner. The alignment would look something like this:
Watch the battle for the nickel spot. Isaiah Oliver has the speed and length Dan Quinn covets, and it’s hard to imagine Quinn keeping him off the field. As I stated in my draft review, Oliver lacks physicality and is best suited to play outside, so using him in nickel situations likely means bumping one of the two starters (probably Robert Alford) inside to play over a slot receiver. This is something to watch for during the second and third preseason games when the Falcons starters get extended playing time.
4) The Falcons defense was OUTSTANDING in the playoffs
Falcons defensive season averages
19.7 points per game (#8 in NFL)
318 yd per game (#9 in NFL)
Wild Card vs LA Rams -- #1 scoring offense in the NFL
13 pts (Season average of 29.9)
361 Total Yards (much of which came late in the 4th when the game was decided)
Two forced turnovers
Divisional Round vs Eagles -- #3 scoring offense in the NFL
15 pts (Season average of 28.6)
Two forced turnovers
334 total yards, 22 first downs
The Eagles offense accumulated 1,069 yards, 79 points, and 59 first downs in their next two playoff games
The Falcons had the second best scoring defense in last year’s playoffs (14 PPG) and the 3rd best total defense (347.5 yd). They were able to improve on their regular season performance and completely stymie two of the best offenses in the league -- something Coach Quinn has made a habit of doing in the last five years. His L.O.B. Seahawks defense embarrassed the record-setting 2013 Broncos offense in Super Bowl 48 (including four turnovers, a safety, and just 27 yards rushing), and gave up just 13.3 ppg the entire playoffs.
The point is that Quinn has proven to be a masterful playoff game planner, and the current accumulation of defensive talent give us every reason to believe he can continue to duplicate that in Atlanta.
5) Two areas for growth
Turnovers - The 2017 unit was 27th in the league in takeaways at 16. By comparison, the 2016 unit ranked 16th at 22, and the 2015 unit (an 8-8 team) also ranked 16th at 23 takeaways. While it's true there is some element of luck in accumulating turnovers, 16 is an astonishing low number considering every other top-10 defense last season forced at least 20 turnovers. Basically, we need more of what you see in the GIF above.
Sacks - The Falcons' sack totals have risen each of the last three years. They went from dead last in the league at 19 sacks in 2015, to 16th with 34 sacks in 2016, and 13th with 39 sacks last year. The number to shoot for is 45 ; forty-five sacks is guaranteed to land you in the top-five of the league, and only one team to hit the 45-sack threshold has missed the playoffs in the last three years.
The player to watch up front is Takk McKinley. His skill set -- a high motor on top of outstanding speed and athleticism -- has 10+ sacks written all over it. If healthy, he's a future Pro Bowler, and he's a great candidate to have a Beasley-esque jump in sacks from year one to year two.
2018 Outlook
Barring MULTIPLE catastrophic injuries, the Falcons appear poised to enter the ranks of the elite defenses. They have enough depth to absorb one or even two major losses in the defensive line and secondary, and the only completely "irreplaceable" player appears to be middle linebacker Deion Jones.
Atlanta will also have the benefit of a much easier schedule. Although a 10-win team last year, the Falcon's will play the 3rd place schedule, meaning they'll only see three of the top-10 scoring offenses from last season. That, along with the expected growth of coordinator Marquand Manuel from his first to second year as defensive play-caller, are reasons to believe the arrow is pointing WAY up for this unit.
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