The NBA world received a nuclear-level shock Saturday morning when news broke of a league-altering trade sending Oklahoma City forward Paul George to the L.A. Clippers to team with Kawhi Leonard.
After an ugly first round loss at the hands of the Portland Trail Blazers, Oklahoma City entered the offseason trying to find help for George and Russell Westbrook while also trimming the league’s highest payroll. The Thunder had already begun exploring trades for Steven Adams and other pieces on their roster, hoping to re-shape the team around the former MVP and a rapidly ascending George. George posted a career year in which he averaged 28.0 PPG, made first team All-NBA, and finished third in MVP voting.
Ironically, George’s phenomenal season led to just one more win than the previous year (49 to 48) and a third-straight opening round loss. This was partly due to a late season shoulder injury that clearly affected George’s shooting stroke in the playoffs. That was compounded by Westbrook’s worst shooting season in nine years (50.1% True Shooting) and a WRETCHED playoff series in which he shot just 36% from the field. It seemed likely the Thunder would run it back counting on a healthy George and a season in which Westbrook to shot better than 42.8% from the field and 29% from three.
If those things DID happen, would it still be enough?
Despite Westbrook’s shooting woes, he still averaged a triple double and led the league in assists, and George had the best offensive year of his career -- only to lose to Portland in five
games in which Westbrook was absolutely torched by Damian Lillard. It ultimately begged the question: “Is this pairing good enough to win long-term?” It seems we may never find out the answer.
In the wake of the catastrophic dumpster fires caused by superstars like Kawhi Leonard, Jimmy Butler, and Anthony Davis demanding trades, teams seem much less likely to hold on discontent stars and risk absolutely decimating team morale and chemistry. That may have contributed to the Thunder’s decision to consent to George’s trade request and use it as a launching pad to rebuild their roster. If the Thunder couldn’t get out of the first round with this year's MVP-caliber season by George, a “big three” with Carmelo Anthony in 2018, and an MVP season from Westbrook in 2017, perhaps a reset IS needed. It doesn’t make sense to have the highest payroll in the NBA for a team that can’t escape the first round, and it doesn’t make sense to pay a superstar $206 million the next five seasons if your team won't be competitive for half of them.
Trades for Russell Westbrook
Should the Thunder decide to go for a full rebuild and trade Westbrook, they will (and should) demand a king’s ransom in return. Any team that wants to trade for the eight-time All-Star would likely need the following:
A win-now roster. A trade for Westbrook will demand most of your draft capital and some of your young talent, so there’s not much sense in trading for him if your team isn’t already competitive.
At least one large expiring contract to send to Oklahoma City. The Thunder are trying to trim payroll, but Westbrook is set to make $38 million next season. Since the salaries in a trade have to match (or come close) sending over a player in the last year of a big (usually bad) contract would allow the Thunder to get salary cap relief moving forward. For example, Danilo Gallinari is in his last contract year at a $22.6 million salary which helps to match roughly two-thirds of Paul George’s $33 million salary for next season.
At least one quality young talent. Picks alone aren't enough to land elite NBA players; you have to give up some talent. The Paul George deal cost the Clippers an All-Rookie player in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, and any team trading for Westbrook will likely have to give up their most prized young player, regardless of position.
Tons of draft picks. Based on what they recouped for George, it’s safe to say the starting price would likely be three first round picks. That could change depending on the quality of the players OKC gets back in the trade, but we’ll use three first-rounders as our baseline in looking at possible deals. Also, for the sake of simplicity, we’ll make all the picks unprotected although there would undoubtedly be protections in place for a real deal.
With that laid out, we call on the ESPN NBA Trade Machine to help us find six teams that could realistically trade for Russell Westbrook.
Atlanta Hawks
The Hawks have, by FAR, the most capital to pull off this trade. They can send either Allen Crabbe ($18.5 million) or Chandler Parsons ($25.1 million) as expiring contracts and include some combination of Cam Reddish, De’Andre Hunter, Kevin Huerter, John Collins, and Trae Young as young talent. If Atlanta managed to keep Trae Young, he could play alongside Westbrook as a spot-up shooter and secondary playmaker. That said, Young showed such dynamic passing and playmaking last year that taking him off the ball seems like a poor use of his most elite skill.
In the version of the trade shown here, the Hawks ship off Young with De’Andre Hunter:
The same trade works with Kevin Huerter or John Collins in place of Trae Young, or with Reddish in place of De’Andre Hunter. If Allen Crabbe is used in place of Chandler Parsons then the Young HAS to be included to match the salaries since he makes about $5 million more than Collins and Huerter.
It’s hard to imagine OKC making this trade without getting Young or Collins, and it’s even harder to imagine Atlanta giving up two very young players already performing near an All-Star level. Atlanta can offer plenty of draft capital though, and a deal including Young and either Reddish or Hunter should be more than enough to pair with their 2020 picks and 2022 first round picks, first round swaps* in 2021 & 2023, and possible even second round picks in 2022 and 2024.
*The Stepien rule prohibits teams from trading first round picks in consecutive years, so pick swaps have to be included in place of consecutive first round picks.
Value for OKC: 10/10
Fit for Atlanta: 5/10 - The idea Westbrook alongside Trae Young isn't completely terrible, but Westbrook replacing Young with seems like a poor fit due to his age and spotty outside shooting.
Improvement for Atlanta: 5/10 - Young could conceivably become a better offensive player than Westbrook before Westbrook’s contract ends, making this a very iffy deal for the Hawks.
Likelihood: 0/10 - Any trade involving Trae Young would and should be a complete non-starter for the Hawks.
Orlando Magic
The Magic have a number of intriguing young pieces, with Aaron Gordon unquestionably the grand prize. If the Magic could structure a trade to keep Gordon, they would become a legitimate threat in the East with Westbrook joining Gordon and All-Star center Nikola Vucevic.
This also provides one of the better fits for Westbrook. He could slide in at the two next to D.J. Augustin, whose three-point shooting allows him to play off the ball. The Magic could also bump Terrence Ross into the starting backcourt to play next to Westbrook, allowing D.J. Augustin to run the second unit as a super high-end backup.
Markelle Fultz and Mo Bamba provide two excellent talents for OKC to build around on both ends of the floor. That kind of quality young talent might allow Orlando to send back slightly less draft capital. Orlando owns all of its own picks in upcoming drafts and would also be able to send two of their 2020, 2021, and 2022 first rounders, pick swap the other year, and send a 2020 second rounder to Oklahoma City as part of the deal.
Value for OKC: 9/10 - This trade brings back quality assets and talent, but the length of Fournier's contract hurts the value somewhat. This move saves OKC about $5 million in cap space each of the next two years.
Fit for Orlando: 8/10 - This provides one of the better fits for Westbrook as Orlando can pair him with two guards that shoot well.
Improvement for Orlando: 8/10 (This number would be higher if Orlando didn’t already have a solid option at PG)
Likelihood: 8/10 - This is very little downside to this trade, making it the rare that would appear to greatly benefit both teams.
Toronto Raptors
Could Russell Westbrook follow in the footsteps of Kawhi Leonard? Westbrook’s salary makes a perfect match for Kyle Lowry, meaning the two could be part of an outright one-for-one trade. The problem is that Lowry is 34 with an expiring contract that provides little value to a rebuilding Thunder team unless they choose to trade him again. The Raptors have a veteran roster with the only real youth found in O.G. Anunoby and the untouchable Pascal Siakam. Siakam would be the player to ask about, but it’s hard to imagine any feasible scenario in which Toronto would trade the NBA’s Most Improved Player. Toronto does have draft capital and could offer a mixture picks and pick swaps for their next four first round picks as well as their 2020 and 2023 second round picks.
A deal for Westbrook makes sense for Toronto, but they would likely have a include a third team to either take on money from the Thunder and/or send a young asset their way in exchange for significant draft compensation. If any executive can swing it, it’s Toronto general manager Masai Ujiri, and the trade could look something like this:
Portland would need to send at least one additional first to Oklahoma City, bringing the total haul to FIVE first round draft picks.
Value for OKC: 7.5/10 - A starting lineup of Lowry, Gallinari, Whiteside, Andre Roberson, and Jerami Grant would allow the Thunder to still put a competitive product on the floor and go into full rebuild mode next year with five first round picks and the expiring contracts of Lowry, Gallinari, and Whiteside taking $84 million off the payroll. The downside is that they aren’t getting any young talent back.
Fit for Toronto: 8/10 - This move extends Toronto’s window as Westbrook provides them with an offensive engine to replace Kawhi Leonard and help keep them competitive. The Raptors could then dive back into free agency next summer and add additional pieces (perhaps even bringing back DeMarr Derozan) to give them a championship caliber veteran core.
Fit for Portland: 10/10 - This allows Portland to shed the awful Whiteside contract in exchange for a player that can actually help them. Adam steps in and immediately provides the rebounding and defensive presence the Blazers lost when Jusuf Nurkic shattered his leg last spring.
Improvement for OKC: 2/10 - The loss of Adams and Westbrook greatly weakens the roster, but the Thunder would finally get out of salary cap purgatory with a stash of draft picks and financial flexibility to rebuild with.
Likelihood: 8.5/10 - Multi-team deal are very complex, but a move like this seems to make sense for all three parties. The Thunder get cap relief, the Raptors get an upgrade at point guard, and the Blazers get an insurance policy for the injured Jusuf Nurkic.
Miami Heat
There is already a substantial buzz about Westbrook going to Miami to team with Jimmy Butler. A trade with the Heat becomes extremely complicated because of Miami’s lack of cap space and the anatomy of their roster. Miami is heavy on forwards and needs a backup point guard and more outside shooting. That makes it tricky to figure out what the Heat would be willing to give up to land Westbrook. In the first version of this trade the Heat give up the expiring contract of Goran Dragic and a promising young shooter in rookie Tyler Herro.
While this version adds star power to the Heat, it strips them of three-point shooting and backcourt depth. This roster simply doesn’t have enough of either to compete with the upper echelon teams of the Eastern Conference. From a salary standpoint, this deal could be done without including sharp shooting rookie Tyler Herro, but that would require additional draft picks as compensation and the Heat severely lack draft capital. They have already traded away their 2021 and 2023 first round picks as well as ALL of their second round picks for six of the next seven years.
As for Oklahoma City, they would take on a quality expiring contract in Goran Dragic and two legitimate young building blocks in Tyler Herro and Justice Winslow. They could also swap first round picks with Miami in 2020 and 2022, as well as 2024 or 2025 if their 2023 pick has already conveyed to the Clippers. Miami can only offer a maximum of TWO first-round picks (2024 & 2026) and their 2022 second because they have already traded away their 2021 and 2023 first round picks and can't trade first rounders in consecutive years. This deal would ultimately include two first around picks, two pick swaps, and a second and that simply may not be enough draft capital to land an All-NBA superstar that's still in his prime.
An alternate version of the trade includes Meyers Leonard to OKC and sends Schroeder to Miami to provide a back-up point guard. That would allow Shai Gilgeous-Alexander to play the backup in OKC instead of losing valuable playing time to both Schroeder and Dragic.
Realistically, a Westbrook to Miami trade would likely need a third or possibly even a fourth team to provide draft picks to send to OKC and/or to take on additional salary from Miami or OKC. That trade could look like this:
This version of the trade seems to make the most sense. Portland gets a versatile scoring guard in Dragic that can play off-the-ball next to Damian Lillard or on-the-ball next to C.J. McCollum. They also get a quality center who is, arguably, an upgrade over the injured Jusuf Nurkic. The Thunder would also receive a MASSIVE haul of draft capital. Miami could send the same set of draft picks to OKC as the previous deal in addition to 2021 and 2023 first-rounders from Portland, drafts in which Miami has traded away their first-round pick.
Value for OKC: 9.5/10 - The Thunder get a young wing that still has tons of upside and the chance to send $68 million off their books at the end of the season when the contracts of Bazemore, Whiteside, and Winslow expire. They also receive SIX first-round draft picks.
Fit for Miami: 6/10 - Westbrook provides an upgrade over Dragic, but his volatile outside shooting provides a questionable fit on a roster that desperately needs shooting.
Fit for Portland: 10/10 - It’s difficult to imagine Portland getting a better roster upgrade than a former All-Star point guard and a second high-quality young center.
Improvement for Miami: 6.5/10 - Dragic is no scrub. While Westbrook provides superior passing and star power, the lack of ideal pieces around may not maximize his impact in year one.
Likelihood: 8/10 - The trade makes seems to meet the goals of all three clubs, it's financially sound, and makes Miami and Portland better while leaving OKC competitive.
Chicago Bulls
This deal only makes sense if the Bulls expect to complete for a playoff spot next season. At the moment that seems unlikely, but possible. That said, a backcourt of Russell Westbrook and Zach Lavine paired with a frontcourt of Wendell Carter, Jr., Thaddeus Young, and Lauri Markkannen sounds like a lineup that could actually compete for a playoff spot. Westbrook would fill the gaping hole at PG left in the wake of Derrick Rose’s departure in 2016.
This trade works with Porter and any combination of Lauri Markkannen, Wendell Carter, or Coby White. White was used in this example simply to match contracts. It’s conceivable that OKC would ask for two of the three in exchange for Westbrook at which point Chicago would probably hang up the phone. That deal would look something like this:
It seems much more likely the Bulls would trade draft capital as opposed to young talent, but the length and girth of Otto Porter’s contract would likely require heavy draft compensation to make the deal worth while. Chicago owns all of their upcoming draft picks and could offer their first round picks in 2020, 2022, and 2024, pick swaps in 2023 and 2025, plus one of their multiple second round picks in both 2020 and 2022.
Value for OKC: 8.5/10 - The deal is a great value IF the Thunder get at least two of the Markkannen, Carter, White trio. The fact that Porter’s contract has two years remaining lowers the overall value of this deal.
Fit for Chicago: 7/10 - That backcourt would score, but would have a REALLY high usage rate.
Improvement for Chicago: 7.5/10 - The second deal strips the roster of young talent, but if Chicago keeps two-thirds of the trio mentioned earlier, this trade makes them significantly better.
Likelihood: 2/10 - It seems too early into Chicago’s rebuild for a move like this, as they have slowly built a solid young core than should be competitive in the next few years.
Dallas Mavericks
Westbrook could join Luka Doncic and Kristaps Porzingis to form another formidable “big three” in Dallas. That lineup would have an insane amount of ballhandling and scoring and would be an absolute nightmare to defend in the pick-n-roll. Westbrook’s high usage rate would take touches away from Doncic, but Rick Carlisle likes to have two ball handlers in his offensive system, and lowering Doncic’s usage might actually help improve his overall efficiency.
With all due respect to Jalen Brunson, this trade brings back significantly less talent than the other trades. Dallas would need to attach pretty significant draft compensation such as their 2020, 2024, and 2026 first round picks, first round swaps 2022 and 2023, and at least two of their 2021-2023 second round picks.
Value for OKC: 6/10 - The deal just doesn’t bring back enough young talent, and the Thunder have to wait an additional year before the Hardaway contract expires.
Fit for Dallas: 7.5/10 - Westbrook could potentially be a great asset. He would greatly decrease Doncic’s offensive load, and provide both he and Porzingis with much easier looks. The quality of the fits depends on whether you believe in Westbrook's ability to settle in as a deferring playmaker as he did this year with Paul George.
Improvement for Dallas: 9/10 - Adding Westbrook would essentially max out the talent Dallas has on their roster. This move makes them a playoff team and maybe more.
Likelihood: 4/10 - OKC has other potentital deals with much better value.
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