Bummed about the Hawks getting the No. 8 and No. 10 picks? You should be.
How did we get here?
The NBA, in efforts to de-incentivize tanking, changed the lottery odds, effective 2019. As recently as last year the difference between worst and fifth-worst was 25% vs 8.8%, but the 2019 odds saw a much smaller gap of 14% vs 10.5%.
The 2018-2019 Hawks went 29-53 to finish with the fifth worst record (and thus the fifth best lottery odds). Last year’s Luka Doncic/Trae Young swap included the Dallas Mavericks 2019 pick (top five protected), giving the Hawks a second lottery pick.
Remember the flatter odds at the top of the lottery? That means lesser odds for the worst teams, but it also means better odds for the middle tier teams. New Orleans had the seventh best odds, but they are picking No. 1. Memphis had the eighth best odds, but they are picking No. 2. The Lakers had the 11th best odds but landed the No. 4 pick that became a big part of the Anthony Davis deal. The Hawks slid from the fifth odds to the No. 8 pick, while retaining the Mavericks No. 10 pick (the lowest it could have landed).
The Hawk traded SF Taurean Prince to Brooklyn, netting the Hawks the No. 17 pick.
In addition to the three first round picks, the Hawks have three selections in the second round as well, picking at No. 35, No. 41, and No. 44.
Where are you going?
(DMB sucks btw). Both the Hawks head coach Lloyd Pierce and the GM Travis Schlenk have publicly stated there is no intention to add five or six rookies to the upcoming team. As the Hawks currently have six draft picks, expect some wheeling and dealing from Atlanta.
The Hawks have been linked to a number of players at different draft slots thus far including: No. 3-5
SF R.J. Barrett, Fr, Duke
SG Jarrett Culver, So, Texas Tech
No. 5-8
F De'Andre Hunter, So, Virginia
SF Cam Reddish, Fr, Duke
No. 10
F Sekou Doumbouya, Limoges CSP
C Goga Bitadze, Budocnost
C Jaxson Hayes, Fr, Texas
C Nassir Little, Fr, North Carolina
No. 17
F/C Nicolas Claxton, So, Georgia
SG Nickeil Alexander-Walker, So, Virginia Tech
PF Brandon Clarke, Jr, Gonzaga
PF PJ Washington, So, Kentucky
C Bruno Fernando, So, Maryland
SF Matisse Thybulle, Sr, Washington
The main trade rumors for the Hawks include packaging picks No. 8 and No. 10 for pick No. 3 or No. 4 OR combining either No. 8 or No. 10 with No. 17 for pick No. 5 or No. 6. If they do this, it would still be possible to use second round picks (Nos. 35, 41, 44) to move back into the end of the first round.
Mock Draft: Top 10
New Orleans Pelicans - Zion Williamson, F, Duke
Memphis Grizzlies - Ja Morant, PG, Murray State
New York Knicks - R.J. Barrett, SF, Duke
*Atlanta Hawks (via New Orleans) - Jarrett Culver, SG, Texas Tech
**Cleveland Cavaliers - Cam Reddish, F, Duke
***Phoenix Sums - Darius Garland, PG, Vanderbilt
Chicago Bulls - Coby White, PG, North Carolina
New Orleans Pelicans (via Atlanta) - De'Andre Hunter, F, Virginia
Washington Wizards - Sekou Doumbouya , F, International
New Orleans Pelicans (via Atlanta) - Jaxson Hayes, C, Texas
* Culver is likely the No. 4 pick regardless of which team picks here. In this scenario, Atlanta trades the No. 8 and No. 10 picks to move to No. 4 and select him as another of Schlenk's "dribble/pass/shoot" players. His three-point shot is still developing, but he's a strong secondary playmaker and a good defender who should add immediate quality wing depth. His passing, defense, and finishing making him a MUCH safer pick than Cam Reddish and his offensive game is significantly more developed and well-rounded than De'Andre Hunter's.
** Cleveland could also elect to take De'Andre Hunter here, but Reddish has significantly more upside despite being a much more volatile and risky selection.
*** Phoenix could elect to go with White over Garland with Garland coming off a knee injury, but both teams are desperate for a PG, and the Bulls will likely select whomever is left between White and Garland.
The 2019 NBA draft is Thursday night June 20th, so check back in for a recap of the Hawks draft along with profiles of top prospects and how they fit with their new teams. In the meantime, sound off on who you think the Hawks should take and who they should avoid!
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