By: Scott the Statissassin, G$, and David
It only comes once every four years -- LeBron free agency! (Okay, so technically he's been a free agent several years in a row and just re-signed with Cleveland, but bear with me). Title Run is here to give you a detailed run-down on how his potential suitors stack up in terms of roster, money, and their long-term impact on LeBron's legacy.
Free Agency Options:
Teams Lebron Could Sign with Outright
Cleveland
Roster/Championship Potential: Moderate (6/10)
Fit: N/A
From a purely basketball perspective, LeBron has likely already taken this squad as far as he can. The two of the three biggest contracts belong to players who are only able to impact one end of the floor; Kevin Love can score but is limited on defense, while Tristan Thompson is a solid defender and rebounder, but limited to put-backs and lobs at the offensive end. Jeff Green & George Hill are really good role players that were uncharacteristically inconsistent in the playoffs, and then there is Jordan Clarkson -- who seems to have all-together forgotten how to play basketball in this year’s playoffs. The 2018 postseason showed the Eastern conference has caught up with the Cavs, and they lack the assets and financial flexibility to add ANY additional firepower.
Cap Room: Non-existent (Over by $38.5 M)
Cleveland is already in the luxury tax and has only has one tradeable asset -- Kevin Love. Jordan Clarkson, Rodney Hood, George Hill, and Tristan Thompson all sabotaged whatever small value they had with WRETCHED playoff runs, and it’s probably not wise to trade the only other All-Star and consistent playoff contributor in Love.
Legacy Effect: Extremely positive
Choosing to finish his career in Cleveland would go a long way to atone for his “Big Three” stint in Miami. He already erased a lot of that backlash with his 2016 championship, but choosing to stay through the twilight of his career would further erode that narrative. If he manages to somehow bring in another ring to the Land they’ll be bronzing his jerseys instead of burning them.
Likelihood: Very Low (2/10)
It will be a struggle to get this team past two rising juggernauts in Philadelphia & Boston. If LeBron stays in Cleveland his championship hopes appear to be microscopic at best.
Philadelphia
Roster/Championship Potential: High (8.5/10)
The only young team with more win-now talent is the Boston Celtics. Joel Embiid is already an All-NBA player, Ben Simmons looks like a budding star, and adding LeBron to a team with a solid young core (including Markelle Fultz and Dario Saric) not only increases his chances of winning a championship, but may also help prolong his career.
Fit: Solid (6.5/10)
Embiid, Simmons, Saric, and Fultz are all promising, but the potential losses of J.J. Redick, Marco Belinelli, and Ersan Ilyasova leaves a huge void in bench depth and outside shooting. Also, Ben Simmons’ inability to shoot all but requires him to be the primary ball-handler; this limits the play-making opportunities for one of the best passers in the league and could also keep Fultz from getting opportunities to develop into a legit lead guard. OR -- does Fultz become the next James Harden in OKC -- a ball-dominant super 6th man? Either way, the defensive potential of LeBron, Simmons, and Embiid on the floor together is scary.
Cap Room: Very Good ($30.5 M)
Lebron could sign with Philly without the Sixers having to sacrifice any of their young core.
Legacy Effect: Positive
After the baby Celtics dusted the 76ers in this year’s playoff match-up, people realized Philly may not be as close to the top as their 52 wins might have suggested. If LeBron were to step in as the final piece to their championship puzzle it would add a different layer to his already-great legacy.
Likelihood: High (8/10)
This team has the cap room to pay LeBron, the talent to immediately compete for a championship, and the cachet to attract other free agents. Sounds like a winner.
Los Angeles Lakers
Roster/Championship Potential: Very Low (2/10)
The Lakers currently have eight players under contract, only one of whom is over the age of 23 (Luol Deng). As we all know, youth doesn’t win championships in the NBA. Adding Paul George obviously improves this roster tremendously, but as of now right the Lakers are a losing team of high-upside lottery picks.
Fit: Okay (6.5/10)
The Lakers don’t have great outside shooting, but they have a promising stretch 4 in Kyle Kuzma and a budding star in small forward Brandon Ingram. With Lonzo Ball running the point and unable to stretch defenses with his poor shooting, he seems best suited to remain on the ball, which makes it less clear where LeBron’s best fit would be on the offensive end. Scott believes LeBron and Lonzo can co-exist just fine as dual ball handlers, while David is more skeptical. The Statisassin believes having a co-ball handler will work well as LeBron ages and ramps down his usage rate. Ball is very intelligent, a surprisingly solid defender, and would likely be the passer Lebron will have ever played with.
Cap Room: TONS (at $61 Million, the Lakers have the most cap space in the NBA)
The Lakers have made it clear they will target two marquis free agents and can offer max contracts to both. Paul George has been vocal about his desire to play in L.A., and teaming him with LeBron and the rest of the young roster could instantly vault the Lakers back into the 50-win range. Unfortunately, 50 wins is good for about sixth in the Western Conference these days.
Legacy Effect: Extremely Positive
If LeBron can brings the Lakers back to championship contention with their current dearth of talent and the depth of the Western Conference, it would totally change the narrative about his Finals’ appearance being inflated by the weaker competition in the East. Even one ring or NBA Finals appearance would end that discussion and provide a MASSIVE boost to his legacy.
Likelihood: Very High (8.75/10)
This is assuming Paul George signs in L.A. as expected. LeBron has made it clear his family will be a huge part of this decision. Southern California has great high school basketball and LeBron already owns a house there -- both signs which seem to point to L.A. being an attractive option for his family. But even if Paul George joins him in L.A, does LBJ really want to go through the Rockets, Spurs, and Warriors just to REACH the Finals?
Sign & Trade Options:
Teams WITHOUT enough cap space to sign LeBron
San Antonio
Roster/Championship Potential: Very High (9/10)
A healthy Kawhi Leonard means LeBron is teaming with two All-NBA players (Leonard and LaMarcus Aldridge) and one of the best coaches of all-time. Seems like a recipe for success.
Fit: Outstanding (9/10)
Caveat -- this is assuming Kawhi Leonard is still on the roster. The best coach in the league with the smartest player in the league? Sounds like a perfect marriage. It also doesn’t hurt having Kawhi Leonard and Lamarcus Aldridge -- two all-stars who AREN’T ball-dominant. G$ does point out that the Spurs need to add more three point shooting (Patty Mills and Danny Green are the only real knock-down shooters) and they would likely have to part with quality vets like Pau Gasol, Rudy Gay, Tony Parker, or Manu Ginobili to clear enough cap space.
Cap Room: Non-existent ($671 K)
As mentioned above, San Antonio would have to move some contracts to clear the $30+ million needed to sign LeBron. They could look to move LaMarcus Aldridge ($22.3 M) and/or Pau Gasol ($16 M) or start gutting their depth. The likely casualties would be Patty Mills ($12.4 M), Danny Green ($10 M), or Rudy Gay ($8.9 M), and that still might not be enough. Adding LeBron would almost certainly signal the end of free agent Tony Parker’s days in San Antonio. One possibility is a sign-and-trade where LeBron resigns with the Cavs and agrees to a trade with the Spurs for either Gasol/Kawhi AND two of the role players mentioned above (like Green and Gay)
Legacy Effect: Uncertain
The Spurs are coming off a down season (by their standards) and there is a well-documented history of bromance between coach Gregg Popovich and LeBron. Pop has openly advocated to add LeBron, and no one would fault him for joining a coach he has openly admired for years AND who gives him a great chance to beat the Warriors. But as G$ points out, LeBron would likely never be embraced by the San Antonio market the same way Parker, Ginobili, and Duncan were because he didn’t play his entire career there. It would also be nearly impossible to match the success that trio had (four rings together, five for Duncan) or the extra-basketball influence he could garner by playing in a larger market.
Likelihood: Moderately Low (4.5/10)
The seemingly impending departure of Kawhi Leonard makes this marriage less likely than it looked a few weeks ago. It appears the Spurs would have to shed too much to create enough cap space for LeBron and would tremendously cripple their trademark depth to do so.
Houston
Roster/Championship Potential: (9.75/10)
This is conditional -- if the Rockets can add Lebron while keeping Chris Paul and Eric Gordon than this is EASILY a championship-caliber roster.
Fit: Pretty Good (7/10)
Lebron has thrived on isolation-heavy teams in the past (See: Miami ‘10 -’14) but having three high-usage, ball-dominant players just doesn’t seem likely to work. It forces one player to sacrifice their iso touches to become a spot-up shooter (what Kevin Love and Chris Bosh both did with LeBron). That seems like a waste of any of these MVP-caliber talents.
Cap Room: Non-existent
Technically, Houston has $21.9 million in cap space, BUT 3/5 of their starting lineup (Paul, Trevor Ariza, & Clint Capela are entering free agency). It’s impossible to keep all three while adding Lebron, and unlikely that Capela or Paul will take a significant pay cut to stay.
It appears the ONLY way LeBron can land in Houston is via sign-and-trade. The trade would almost have to include Ryan Anderson’s $20 million salary, which no one in the NBA would touch this past season, and it increases each of the next two years. It’s going to take a lot of creative salary cap juggling to clear room for LeBron while leaving some of the key supporting pieces like P.J. Tucker & Eric Gordon in place. The projected salaries of Harden, Paul, and James come to about $105 M, and paying Tucker, Gordon, Ariza, and Capela would put them roughly $42 M into the luxury tax. Yikes.
Legacy Effect: Slightly positive
Lebron will get a pass on forming another super-team with Harden & Chris Paul simply because NBA fans are so eager to see someone take down the Juggernaut warriors. If he clearly shines as the best player on a team with the REIGNING MVP, it should only help cement his legacy as the undisputed G.O.A.T. of this generation.
Likelihood: Moderate (5.5/10)
It’s really hard to see Houston keeping their core together while also adding James to the fold. It’s not impossible though, and if any GM can pull it off it’s Daryl Morey.
Boston
Roster/Championship Potential: Very High (9.5/10)
This the most-talented young roster in the NBA, a fact proven by the ease with which they dismantled the highly-heralded young 76ers. BUT adding Lebron means saying goodbye to Gordon Heyward, Kyrie Irving, or both.
Fit: Good (8.5/10)
The Celtics movement, ball sharing, and outside shooting is a great fit for LeBron...but Boston already has an embarrassment of riches in quality wing players (Ojeleye, Tatum, Brown, Hayward). Throwing LeBron in the mix means one, possibly two of these talented younger players are out.
Cap Room: Some ($6.4 M)
Scott argues that if Boston wanted to go full NBA 2K19, they could move 32-year old Horford and his $29 million in a package for LeBron and then turn around and move Kyrie for a center. They could also work a three-team deal where Boston ships off Kyrie and Horford for a return package of LeBron and the suddenly dispensable Karl-Anthony Towns.
Legacy Effect: Somewhat positive
The problem here is that it’s Boston. The same Boston that tormented LeBron through his playoff infancy. The same Boston he’s REVELED in destroying the last few years in the playoffs. Going to play for a team you’ve always hated? That would be a tough pill to swallow. You’d never see Jordan go join the Pistons.
BUT -- would the addition of multiple rings and getting his Finals’ record over .500 (which are both real possibilities) make up for it?
Likelihood: Very Low (2/10)
Considering the Celtics nearly beat the Cavs WITHOUT their two best players, it’s seems more likely they’ll run it back with their young core instead of overhauling their already uber-talented roster. They also have been rumored to have a realistic shot at acquiring Kawhi Leonard.
Did we mention how much LeBron HATES Boston?
Golden State
Roster/Championship Potential: Lock (10/10)
Fit: Very Good (9.5/10)
His style of play is a good fit for the Warriors, the problem is figuring out what position to play him at. You can’t keep all five superstars, and Curry & Durant are untouchable. If you get rid of Draymond, Klay, or both, LeBron is capable of playing either the 2 or the 4, OR running the point and allowing Curry to move off the ball and terrorize defenses by dashing around screens for a blitzkrieg of spot-up threes.
Cap Room: Very Little ($2.6 Million)
Legacy Effect: Extremely Negative
Pretty much anything LeBron did with the Warriors would be held against him; just look at the backlash Kevin Durant has received.
Likelihood: Very Low (1/10)
It’s hard to see why Golden State would break up the best core in the NBA -- one that’s already beaten LeBron in three NBA finals.
Washington
Roster/Championship Potential: Moderate (6/10)
The Wizards have two perennial All-Stars in Bradley Beal and John Wall, and solid role players in Marcin Gortat, Markieff Morris, and Otto Porter. Those four alone are better than any group he was running out in Cleveland.
Fit: Good (7.5/10)
Beal and Wall are 24 and 27 yrs old, respectively (sure feels like Wall should be 31 by now), meaning LBJ would get their prime years. Otto Porter Jr. ($26 M) would fit really well as a 4th guy who does a little of everything, but he would probably have to be traded along with Ian Mahinmi (31 yrs old at $16M) or Gortat (34 yrs old at $13.6 M). This creates another situation of two dominant ball handlers, but probably enough shooting with Beal and Porter (if around) to keep the floor spaced.
Cap Room: Non-existent as the Wizards are already $23 million over the cap.
This deal would require a sign and trade AND a commitment from ownership to spend lots of $$$ and incur luxury taxes.
Legacy Effect: Positive
LeBron would be joining talented players, but also joining a franchise many feel have under-achieved the last four years. If the Wizards start making deep playoff runs, he will likely get all the credit. The Eastern conference is still an easier road than the West, but it would still be incredibly impressive if he could hold off Boston and Philly for a few extra years.
Likelihood: Low (3/10)
It feels like LeBron joining the Wizards still only makes them the 2nd or 3rd best team in the East. That and their lack of salary cap space make it hard to see why LeBron would pick them over a younger, more talented team like Philadelphia.
So, who do we feel has the best chance to land LeBron?
Most likely:
L.A. Lakers
Philadelphia 76ers
Houston Rockets
Some chance, but not likely:
Cleveland Cavaliers
Boston
San Antonio
Keep Dreaming:
Washington
Golden State
Please leave a comment and share where YOU think it makes the most sense for LeBron to go.
Comentarios