Does Defense REALLY Win Championships?

By: Scott the Statissassin

“Nobody in the NBA plays defense.” You hear this incessantly during the regular season, but the intensity ratchets up when the playoffs roll around, both in defensive effort and cliches. Fans bemoaning regular season defense are quick to hit you with the “defense wins championships” mantra come June. The idea of defense outweighing offense for championship importance has been parroted by many since Bear Bryant famously claimed “Offense sells tickets. Defense wins championships.” So...is it true? Is defense the key to winning championships in the NBA?

It's POSSIBLE to win a championship with either an offense-first (Showtime baby!) or defense-first (2004 Pistons w/HOF Ben Wallace Hair) approach. It’s also POSSIBLE to consistently fall short with teams constructed to emphasize only one side of the ball. Steve Nash and Mike D’Antoni’s Suns were incredibly fun to watch, but the “Seven Seconds Or Less” philosophy was also known for reversing its fortunes in the playoffs and coming up L-O-S-S. On the other end of the spectrum, the Pacers had a good run from 2011 to 2014 (including a 56 win season and a #1 seed) by building around lengthy perimeter players and big rim protectors. A top notch defense helped propel them through early series, but an average to mediocre offense was their undoing as the summer progressed.

Ten different franchises have won NBA championships in the last 32 years. Nearly all of them did so with highly ranked offenses and defenses. Since raw points totals are inflated/deflated by pace of play, team stats like "Points Per 100 Possessions" are a much better marker for a team’s success. Looking at the regular season and playoff performances of championship teams over the last three-plus decades, you see that good, balanced teams win championships. The average title winner finished with a ranking of 5.7 on offense and 4.6 on defense during the regular season. With the field narrowed down for the playoffs, said title winners finished 3.6 on offense and 4.0 on defense. Of these 32 winners, only seven of them have finished the regular season with either side of the ball ranked outside the top 10, and in the playoffs that lesser side usually stepped up and played better. The other 25 were already top third or better on each side of the ball.

It’s clear that TEAMS win championships, not just one half of the team. With that in mind, which teams this year fits the mold of both good and balanced? These are the teams most likely to win a title. At the conclusion of the regular season, only 4 playoff teams rank in the top 10 in both Offense and Defense, the Rockets, Warriors, Thunder, and Raptors (honorable mention to the 76ers who came soooo close). Teams like the Jazz, Spurs, Celtics, and Heat get it done on the defensive end, but their offensive shortcomings are likely to cost them in the playoffs. The Timberwolves, Bucks, and the Kyrie-less Cavaliers all put in that Uncle Drew work...

...but only the Bucks manage to hit the top 20 defensively. No one expects much from the Timberwolves, while the Cavaliers are generally regarded to be in the hunt as long as Lebron stays healthy (but holy $*#@, that defense says otherwise). The Rockets and Warriors are the

popular favorites no matter how you look at it, owning the two best records in the decidedly tougher Western Conference. The Thunder are a lurking darkhorse who would probably be contending for the #1 spot in the East, but their inconsistency and lack of bench depth means they're probably a half-notch below Houston & Golden State overall. Surprisingly, the Raptors are 3rd on offense and 5th on defense! I guess Canada has something to root for after losing to the U.S. in hockey and curling on the same day at the Olympics...

There will always be exceptions to the rule - some teams have played large chunks of the regular season without a superstar --Curry/GSW, CP3/Houston, Jimmy Butler/Minnesota, John Wall/Washington, Rudy Gobert/Utah -- and will go on to flourish with said star back healthy for the playoffs (and vice versa). Aging veterans like Manu Ginobli and D-Wade will awaken from their regular season hibernation. Maybe the Cavs will even play defense? But when it’s all said and done, if ya ain’t top notch on "O" and "D, ya probably ain’t winning (or even sniffing) a championship.

Over the past year or two a number of articles have popped up regarding winning trends in the NFL; their conclusion? That offense and defense are actually of equal import. Imagine that.

Turns out that holds true for the NBA as well.