The story going into last month's PGA Championship was Tiger Woods’ “return to glory” as Jim Nantz called it. How would he do after winning his first major championship in over 10 years? He was playing with Brooks Koepka on Thursday and Friday, and it was Koepka, not Woods who stole the show. Koepka bested Tiger by 17 strokes in the two days they played together, breaking all kinds of PGA championship records through his first three rounds. He looked like he would run away and hide until his gym buddy Dustin Johnson pulled within one stroke on the back nine on Sunday. Koepka (-8) and DJ (-6) essentially were playing a different game that week at Bethpage, with the next best score -2 and only four other golfers finishing below par for the week.
Here were my picks, and their finishes:
1. Tiger Woods – missed cut at +5
2. Dustin Johnson – 2nd
3. Brooks Koepka – 1st
4. Rory McIlroy – tied 8th
5. Justin Thomas – withdrew with wrist injury
6. Jon Rahm – missed cut at +5
7. Justin Rose – tied 29th
8. Francesco Molinari – tied 48th
9. Rickie Fowler – tied 36th
10. Jason Day – tied 23rd
Going into the U.S. Open this week, there will plenty of coverage for Tiger (there always is), but perhaps the more interesting story is Pebble Beach. Pebble Beach has been the No. 1 public golf course in America since Golf Digest started ranking courses in 2003. It is played every year on the tour in an event called the Pebble Beach Pro-Am, but it has hosted a major six times, and no less than Jack Nicklaus (18 major wins), Tiger (15 major wins), and Tom Watson (8 majors) have claimed major victories here. Also of note, Phil Mickleson goes for the career grand slam at Pebble, and Koepka goes for his fifth major championship in his last nine majors played. You will not find a more beautiful and photogenic golf course than Pebble Beach, and it is well worth tuning in to see the best golfers in the world playing just adjacent to the Pacific with eight holes right on the ocean.
Without further ado, here are my top 10 picks for America’s Open. For some additional background, check out my previous article previewing the PGA Championship.
#10 Jon Rahm – I know Rahm laid an egg at the PGA Championship. He doesn’t have the best track record in majors and can get extremely fiery when things don’t go his way; in U.S. Opens, things are bound to not go your way from time to time. But Rahm has so much game, it seems like it’s a matter of when, and not if, he breaks through for a Major win; He already won the team event in New Orleans earlier this year. At 6’ 2” and 220 pounds, he has the frame to drive the ball very well, ranked fifth in strokes gained off the tee and averages 307 yards on his drives. He and Rory McIlroy will be bombing it together as they are grouped for the first two rounds.
#9 Justin Thomas – Thomas rebounded from the wrist injury that sidelined him for the PGA Championship and finished tied for 20th this past week at the Canadian Open. He has the game, ranking sixth in the Official World Golf Rankings, but will any lingering effects from the wrist injury cause issues this week in California? His strength is ball striking, ranking seventh in strokes gained approaching the green and chipping and ninth in strokes gained around the green. If he’s fully healthy, he could channel the grit that won him the 2017 PGA Championship, the 2017 FedEx Cup, and the 2017 Player of the Year honors.
#8 Rickie Fowler – Fowler has made the cut only once since the PGA Championship, finishing 14th at the Memorial Tournament hosted by Jack Nicklaus. That being said, he is still eighth in this year’s FedEx Cup Rankings, thanks in part to his win at the Waste Management Phoenix Open. Over the last five years he is arguably the best golfer without a Major win, and it seems like only a matter of time until he breaks through for a Major victory. He has the prettiest putting stroke on tour and one of golf’s best on the green. Due to tough and usually lightning fast putting conditions, the week’s best putter can often take the US Open.
#7 Justin Rose – Rose is still #3 in the Official World Golf Rankings after winning last year’s FedEx Cup and this year’s Farmer’s Insurance Open just down the shoreline from Pebble at Torrey Pines. He has always been one of the game’s best ball strikers but has improved putting to 11th in strokes gained putting this year. He has had one quality finish (13th) since the PGA Championship at the Memorial Tournament. He will be playing with Tiger and Jordan Spieth the first two days, so look for a lot of coverage and good play from him the first two days.
#6 Patrick Cantlay – When you tune into a big golf tournament, there’s always a name or two toward the top of the leaderboard that surprises you, even if you’re a devoted fan. This should not be one of those names. Although Cantlay has only two PGA Tour wins and no Major victories, he is ranked sixth in the FedEx Cup Rankings and eight in the Official World Golf Rankings. He won Jack Nicklaus’s Memorial tournament just two weeks ago and finished tied for third at the PGA Championship. He is an extremely consistent ball striker, ranked second this year in strokes gained tee to green. Don’t be surprised to see him on the first page of the leaderboard or in one of the last groups on Sunday.
#5 Jordan Spieth – He’s baaack. After winning three majors between 2015 and 2017 and becoming America’s beloved country club son, his performance has dipped the last two years. Everything from wayward tee shots, loss of control approaching the green, and yips on short putts have been to blame. After claiming his slump was behind him heading into Bethpage Black, he backed up his words with a tie for third at the PGA Championship. He followed that up with a tie for eighth at his home course in Fort Worth and a tie for seventh at the Memorial Tournament. He putted unbelievably well at all three events and is now ranked third in strokes gained putting this year. Like Koepka, he has a way of showing up for the Majors. Expect he, Rose, and Tiger to put up some good scores playing together.
#4 Rory McIlory – Rory has had a great bounce back year. It’s been nearly five years since the last of his four major wins, but he is back to form in 2019. He has won both the Players Championship and last week’s Canadian Open, vaulting him to No. 2 in the FedEx Cup standings and No. 3 in the Official World Golf Rankings. He is tops in strokes gained off the tee, thanks to his 315 yard driving average, and he has cleaned up his short iron and wedge play to give him more chances at birdies.
#3 Tiger Woods – Tiger let me (and most of the world down) with his performance at Bethpage Black, but he still holds the greatest winning margin in major history (15 strokes), and that was at none other than the U.S. Open at Pebble Beach. He has his iron game going again, ranking No. 13 in strokes gained approaching the green and has been chipping extremely well (No. 8 in strokes gained around the green). If finds his putting touch, we should be seeing his trademark red polo late on Sunday afternoon. He’s played just once since the PGA Championship, when he finished tied for ninth at the Memorial Tournament. He’s ranked fifth in the Official World Golf Ranking, thanks in large part to his Masters victory. We’ll see if he can perform to that level at a venue where he’s produced so many highlights in the past.
#1b Dustin Johnson – It’s so hard to separate Dustin from his buddy Brooks Koepka. They sit at No. 1 and No. 2 in the OWGR. They train together in the gym, spurring each other on with insults and power lifts. They are two of the longest hitters on tour and are flat-out driving, wedging, and putting machines. While Koepka was winning the PGA Championship, D.J. was finishing off the runner-up Grand Slam, tallying second place finishes at all four majors now. Down the stretch at Bethpage Black, you got the feeling that D.J. was the only name that Koepka was concerned about chasing him down on Sunday afternoon. He has finished runner-up at both majors this year, as well as winning the World Golf Championship-Mexico Championship, putting him at No. 5 in the FedEx Cup Rankings this year. He is third in strokes gained off the tee, thanks to a 310 yard driving average and an accurate fade he plays off the tee. Look for him to be on the first page of the leaderboard come Sunday.
#1a Brooks Koepka – When you’ve won four of your last eight majors, it’s hard to bet against you; Koepka has such overwhelming talent. After finishing off the PGA Championship on May 19th, he didn’t pick up a golf club again until June 4th when he arrived in Ontario for the Canadian Open. I played four more rounds of golf than Brooks Koepka did during those two and a half weeks, and yet he knows that that’s all the preparation he needs to peak for the Major championships. He is tops in the Official World Golf Rankings and No. 3 in the FedEx Cup standings. He has massive confidence for the Majors and plays his best golf when the stakes are highest. I am channeling my inner Koepka and bringing the same confidence that Koepka pulls off a third straight U.S. Open.