This is the final installment in our detailed coverage of the top free agents of the 2019 class. A few quick notes:
All salary cap numbers come from www.spotrac.com
Yes, the Lakers are candidates for pretty much EVERY free agent in existence.
Khris Middleton was left off this list because there are very, very strong indications he will re-sign with Milwaukee.
As for the rest of the big-name free agents, here's where we think they will land.
Possible Teams: L.A. Lakers, Minnesota, Brooklyn, Phoenix
Best Chance for a Championship:
Clearly, the L.A. Lakers.
Best Fit: Phoenix makes the most sense by miles. The 23-year old Russell would provide the long-term backcourt partner the Suns have been dying to find for Devin Booker. His ball-handling, scoring, and play-making would significantly lessen the offensive load on Booker and round out the Suns young core of DeAndre Ayton, Mikal Bridges, and Booker himself.
Most Likely Team:
The answer SHOULD be Phoenix, but a reunion with the Lakers seems highly likely at this point. All of the players from Russell’s previous chaotic stint with the team are gone, and the Lakers can bring him in for less than other max free agents since Russell has only played four NBA seasons ($27.3 million versus $32.7 million for a seven-year vet). In the short-term, he provides a third All-Star caliber piece, while in the long-term he provides a young partner for Anthony Davis once the LeBron era of Lakers basketball comes to an end.
Possible Teams: Dallas, Sacramento, L.A. Clippers, New Orleans, L.A. Lakers, Philadelphia -- basically every team with significant cap space.
Best Chance for a Championship:
This one is tricky. The answer is Philadelphia if they can somehow squeeze Tobias Harris, Jimmy Butler, and Horford into their $59 million in cap space. That seems highly unlikely, making the Lakers Horford’s most realistic chance at a ring. That is, unless Kawhi Leonard signs with the Clippers. Adding Horford and Leonard to a talented and deep Clippers core (Lou Williams, Danilo Gallinari, Montrezl Harrell, Landry Shamet) might give them enough firepower to compete with the top teams in the Western conference.
Best Fit: Horford’s defensive versatility and outside shooting makes him a good fit on literally EVERY team in the NBA. As with Vucevic, the question comes down to roster talent, cap room, and years -- a team willing to give Horford a four-year deal. Horford fits especially well with the Clippers, Philadelphia, and Dallas, but the 76ers have other pressing free agents in Jimmy Butler, Tobias Harris, and J.J. Redick, and Dallas is a 33-win team with no point guard and a rookie as their best player. The Clippers appear to be the best fit, especially if they attract another marquis free agent.
Most Likely Team:
As with all second-tier free agents, Horford’s fate will be shaped by the decisions of Durant, Irving, and Leonard. Without knowing exactly where those three will land, Dallas or the L.A. Clippers seem most likely. Both have cap space, both expect to be good next year, and both have a stockpile of young talent that would minimize the negative value of Horford’s contract when he reaches age 36 and 37 during the last two years of the four-year contract he is rumored to be seeking.
Possible Teams: Golden State, New York, Boston, Sacramento, L.A. Lakers, L.A. Clippers -- basically the same teams that want Al Horford.
Best Chance for a Championship:
L.A. Lakers. With a healthy Klay Thompson Golden State would obviously be a championship threat, but that’s a big “if.”
Best Fit: Cousins fits best on a team that needs rebounding and interior scoring and already has good frontcourt defenders. Unfortunately, the free agent market is saturated with quality centers (Horford, Vucevic, De’Andre Jordan) and Cousins’ injuries and defensive limitations make him a consolation prize for teams that miss out on Horford or Vucevic.
A return to Sacramento would make sense as Cousins would replace Willie Cauley-Stein next to Marvin Bagley on a young team that should compete for a playoff spot. The Clippers also make sense, but Al Horford’s defensive versatility and passing might be more attractive than Cousins interior scoring and rebounding.
Most Likely Team: Predicting a destination for Cousins is difficult because the devastating Achilles and quad injuries he’s suffered in the last 15 months have torpedoed his market value. He is no longer a max player, but he’s still one of the best offensive big men in the league and a fantastic rebounder.
He sits firmly among the second tier of free agents and his final destination will depend on the landing spots of top free agents like Durant, Leonard, Irving, and even Al Horford. For example, if Nikola Vucevic leaves Orlando, Cousins makes perfect sense as a skilled offensive replacement. If the Knicks fail to land Kevin Durant, they are rumored to have a fat one-year deal ready for Cousins to come in and prove himself in hopes of possibly earning a long-term deal. Cousins’ salary is also hard to project, but seems like it could land in the $15-20 million range. At that rate half the league could afford the 29-year old big man that peaked at 28 points, 12 rebounds, and consecutive All-NBA selections just a few seasons ago.
It’s seems most likely he’ll either take a huge one-year deal from a middling team like the Knicks, a moderate deal from an up-and-coming team like the Kings, or another short-term bargain deal to play with a contender like the Lakers or Warriors. Choosing his destination is like playing pin the tail on the donkey, but we’ll go with Cousins landing the Clippers. The Clippers currently have ZERO centers on their roster and have the cap space to add Cousins AND a max free agent to their over-achieving core.
Possible Teams: Philadelphia, Houston, L.A. Lakers
Best Chance for a Championship:
There’s no question that teaming Butler with LeBron James and Anthony Davis would make the Lakers the prohibitive championship favorites -- even more so than teaming him with Chris Paul and James Harden in Houston.
Best Fit: NOT Houston. Butler’s does his best work in the mid-range iso game -- the one area Houston DOESN’T want to attack offensively. He’s a middling three-point shooter (34.7%), but gets to the free throw line at a high rate and possesses underrated skills as a passer and secondary playmaker. But more than anything, can you imagine Jimmy Butler in the same locker room with Chris Paul -- two of the most prickly, outspoken, “alpha dog” players in the entire league? That sounds like a recipe for disaster.
The Lakers likely provide the best fit, with LeBron James willing to defer when he has capable scorers and Anthony Davis able to generate significant offensive production with minimal touches.
Most Likely Team:
L.A.'s salary cap situation makes a return to Philadelphia the most likely scenario. BUT, if the Sixers are forced to prioritize Tobias Harris over Butler, a sign-and-trade with a third team like the Miami Heat is a strong possibility.
Possible Teams: Philadelphia, L.A. Clippers, Brooklyn, Dallas, New Orleans, Denver Nuggets
Best Chance for a Championship:
This all depends on the domino effect created by the top-tier free agents. A 76ers team that returns Harris and Jimmy Butler could win the Eastern Conference, and a return to the Clippers alongside Kevin Durant or Kawhi Leonard creates a legitimate contender in the West. Harris could also help push Denver into the championship picture replacing the aging Paul Millsap as a long-term partner for Nikola Jokic and Michael Porter, Jr.
Best Fit: Harris is an efficient knock-down shooter (48.7% FG / 39.7% 3 pt) that plays well off-the-ball. At 6’9” he can play both forward positions, but probably fits best on a team that moves the ball and has a big-time defensive anchor. That makes Brooklyn, Philadelphia, and Denver the best fits. A return to the Clippers could also make sense if they snatch up a defensive stalwart like Al Horford or DeAndre Jordan to play alongside Harris. Harris’ options expand even further if he is willing to play for less than a max deal, which remains unclear.
Most Likely Team: Harris will likely have to wait until the dust settles from the Leonard, Durant, and Irving decisions before choosing his own team for next year. Teams that miss out on Leonard or Durant will likely have Harris and Julius Randle on their list of Plan B’s. A return to Philadelphia seems more likely with the Sixers having the best mixture of cap space, fit, and championship potential. If Philadelphia is forced to prioritize Butler over Harris, then Denver makes sense if they can clear adequate cap space for a long-term deal.
Possible Teams: Orlando, Boston, Dallas, L.A. Lakers
Best Chance for a Championship:
If Boston lands Kemba Walker and Vucevic, they could become odds-on favorites to win the NBA title. Vucevic lacks Al Horford’s defensive versatility, but he’s a proven inside-outside scorer and a strong rebounder that could provide a huge offensive boost for a Celtics team that struggled for consistency on that end of the floor. Without Walker or a high-end point guard to replace Irving, the Lakers would give Vucevic the best shot at a title.
Best Fit: Boston or Dallas. "Vooch" is coming of career highs in points and rebounds (20.6 pts, 12 reb) and turns 29 next season. Vucevic can shoot, rebound, and play respectable defense, a modern skill set that fits well on ANY team in the NBA. That means the “best fit” for him really comes down to roster and cap room. Dallas and Boston provide the best opportunities for long-term success due to their financial flexibility, youth, coaching, and overall talent. With Boston much closer to a championship than Dallas, the Celtics probably provide the best overall fit for Vucevic.
Most Likely Team: If the rumors are true about Vucevic wanting $25 million a year, it’s hard to see Boston or L.A. using their precious cap space to sign him over elite free agents such as Kemba Walker or Kawhi Leonard. That makes a return to Orlando the most likely scenario with Dallas a close second.
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