Season 50 of Atlanta Hawks basketball is in the books. Here’s a brief look back at our preseason predictions and some thoughts on the outlook for the 2019-2020 season.
What We Got Right
Overall Record - ESPN projected Atlanta to win 24 games. We predicted that the improved depth and roster continuity would push the Hawks closer to 30 wins -- 29 to be exact. The Hawks final record was 29-53. Really wish we’d put some money on that one.
John Collins -- We predicted a huge jump for John the Baptist following the strong finish to his rookie year and his dominant play at the 2018 Summer League. Our preseason stat projection:
18.8 points
8.7 rebounds
51.3% FG / 36% 3-pt
Collins' season stats:
19.5 pts
9.8 rebounds
56.0% FG / 34.8% 3-pt
Collins is a double-double monster who scores with energy, great off-the-ball movement, and a surprisingly smooth jump shot. He finished one monster game away from a 20/10 season and looks like a lock to become a future All-Star.
Pace of Play - The Hawks talked all offseason about wanting to play fast, and Trae Young seemed like the perfect lead guard to power the Hawks’ high-octane offensive engine. We predicted the Hawks would play significantly faster, but couldn’t have predicted they would actually lead the league in pace at 104 possession per 48 minutes.
BAAAD Defense - We predicted the Hawks would be awful on defense...and they were. They allowed the most points per game (119.4) and finished 28th in defensive rating, allowing 113 points per 100 possessions. To put that in perspective, their 113 rating would’ve been the league-worst in each of the last nine seasons.
What Surprised Us
Lensanity - We predicted that Alex Len might be a surprise after his promising pre-season play, and yet he was still a surprise. He averaged career highs in points (11.1) and three-point shooting (36.3%) and looks like legit fixture as an athletic rotational big.
Kevin Huerter’s rapid ascent into the starting line-up - We initially predicted Huerter would compete with Tyler Dorsey and Justin Anderson for rotational minutes on the wing. Instead, Huerter’s playmaking and shooting (38.5% 3-pt) sent Kent Bazemore to the bench, ran Dorsey off the roster (he was traded to Memphis), and buried Anderson on the fringes of the Hawks rotation.
Trae Young’s Second Half Surge - Trae Young looked lost two months into his pro career. He shot 19.8% from three in November (expected to be one of his strengths) and turned the ball over at an alarming rate. Young proved his November swoon to be an anomaly, improving each month and finally catching fire during his torrid run after the All-star break. His stats during those 23 games:
24.7 points / 9.2 assists / 44.2 FG% / 34.8% 3-pt / 87.8% FT
Our pre-season projections for Trae:
12.6 points/ 7.2 Assists/ 39.8% FG/ 37.3% 3-pt/ 86% FT
Below are two charts comparing Trae’s rookie year to the rookie years of several All-star/All-NBA point guards. The comparisons are staggering.
81 -- That’s how many games Trae Young played this year. He started each of the first 80 games and only sat game 81 because the Hawks wanted to lose to insure they separated themselves from Dallas in the standings. Playing 81 games is outstanding for ANY player, much less a rookie entering the league with concerns about his size and frame.
The Hawks Offseason Plan
Priority one in the Hawks improvement plan = defense, defense, defense. Trae Young was the defensive sieve many feared he might be (worst defensive plus/minus of any eligible guard according to ESPN.com) and the Hawks MUST find backcourt defenders that can provide more floor spacing than Deandre Bembry but at a better value than Kent Bazemore (scheduled to make $19 million next year).
Priority two: Find a quality backup point guard. Jeremy Lin was outstanding before the Hawks let him walk for Toronto, and Jaylen Adam didn’t inspire much confidence with a limited offensive repertoire and subpar playmaking ability. Following Lin’s departure, the Hawks offense frequently screeched to a halt when Young left the floor. They need to find another Lin-esque veteran that can handle at least part of Trae’s enormous offensive workload when he sits or -- heaven forbid -- gets injured.
Priority three Find quality frontcourt depth behind John Collins, Alex Len, and Dewayne Dedmon (should they re-sign him). Their initial frontcourt bench of Vince Carter, Omari Spellman, and Miles Plumlee wasn’t exactly fear-inspiring, but it was better than the parade of journeymen and G-leaguers they paraded out to end the season (Deyonta Davis, Isaac Humphries, Tyler Zeller, et al).
Future All-star John Collins is also a rather porous defender at the four, so the Hawks need a defensive-minded five to pair with him long-term. Alex Len is probably best as part of a rotation, Dewayne Dedmon is approaching 30, and Omari Spellman isn’t agile enough to be a reliable pick-n-roll defender yet. Bringing back Dedmon provides a good stop-gap, but his age and injury history preclude him from being a long-term answer. Don’t be surprised to see the Hawks shift their focus from shooting to defense this offseason as they continue into year three of their rebuild.
The future is bright for the Atlanta Hawks, and in the 2019-2020 season the future could finally be NOW.
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