By: Scott the Statissassin
(Editor’s note: Before jumping into this article, you might want to check out Scott’s article on the history of high draft picks in Summer League.)
Armed with a little historical perspective, let’s look at how some noteworthy rookies performed in this year’s Summer League. With Luka Doncic absent, the rookie class more or less looked like...well, rookies. Most players had flashes and a few big games paired with some ROUGH moments and steep learning curves.
#1) First overall pick DeAndre Ayton finished up a four-game stint with 14.5 ppg, 10.5 rebounds, and a solid 22.5 PER. If you tuned in to watch his first game you saw the slowest guy on the court get two points in the first half and look winded roughly five minutes into his professional career. Ayton showed himself to be a good lob target and was strong on the glass. The part that should make Suns fans nervous? He looked like a classic old-school center that would have been an ideal #1 pick...in 1990. His fit right now is not ideal, but his conditioning is likely to improve and could go a long way towards minimizing this issue.
#2) Marvin Bagley is the early leader for the “Most Likely to Bust” award (and being picked by the Kings doesn’t help). The same Ayton that struggled early in Summer League went off against Bagley (21 pts, 12 reb), who averaged 10 points to go with five boards and a very low PER of 10.2. The positives? He’s still athletic and can finish at the rim. But if you can’t consistently shoot, pass, or play defense it’s gonna be hard to stand out in the NBA. The shooting may be fine (and often improves anyway), but there are definitely some early red flags for his career.
#4) Jaren Jackson Jr. opened Summer League with a bang. The player heralded for his defensive switchability and unpolished athleticism opened by going 8-13 from three and looked like the early front-runner for Rookie of the Year. The shooting naturally slowed down (but remained solid), and Jackson finished with 13 points and 7 rebounds with a strong 23.3 PER. Jackson’s overall performance is about what you expected if you’re a Grizzlies fan -- solid defense paired with some three-point shooting. JJJ fits the current style of NBA play very well and seems highly unlikely to be a complete bust.
#5) Trae Young was the most up-and-down of the top-five picks, largely due to some ups and downs (and then a few more downs) when it came to three-point shooting. Small sample sizes are particularly influential on things like three-point shooting (Spoiler: JJJ is unlikely to shoot 50% from three for his entire career and be the best sharpshooter ever), so it’s equally likely that Young’s shooting isn’t perfectly predictive. Young’s play was often polarizing and hot take-y, with fairly consistent playmaking and occasionally spectacular passing paired with some, uh, HIGHLY questionable shot selection. His Summer League performance should do little to change his initial NBA projections; early in his career Young is likely to make a positive impact on offense and a negative impact on defense. Overall, his prospects are still heavily boom or bust for a top five pick.
#6) Mo Bamba was projected as a project and looked like a project. The wingspan is still stupid (in a good way) and the highlight blocks were top notch. There just wasn’t a lot of offensive impact at a tick under 7 ppg, and his rebounding was fine but elite (6 per game). The hope for him is to make the most impact on defense while stretching the floor with occasional three-point shooting and throwing down a few lobs on offense. It’s definitely a possible outcome, but it’s also not a guarantee.
#7) Wendell Carter Jr.’s performance in Summer League made a lot of people question whether the Kings picked the right Duke player at #2. (I know, it takes some nerve to question the Kings draft choices.) Anyway, WCJ was good for 15 points and 10 rebounds, was efficient from everywhere, showed some passing ability, and played good defense. The NBA comp for him was always Al Horford, and the comp is still Al Horford. Horford is a good, solid player for a #3 pick and would be a steal at #7.
#8) Collin Sexton was a slashing score-first PG at Alabama, and that didn’t change when he put on a Cavs jersey. Sexton trailed only Kevin Knox in rookie PPG at Summer League (20) while taking 16 shots per game. His overall efficiency was decent, shooting 43%, but only three assists per game is pretty “meh” for a PG. Some of this can be offset by his scoring, but he didn’t show much ability to knock down outside shots either. He will need to either create more for teammates or continue to develop his jumper to thrive as an NBA player.
#9) Kevin Knox led all rookies in scoring with 21 ppg. Playing at PF (a better fit for his skill set), Knox looked like a real long-term answer for the Knicks. Maybe New York’s’ 20-year rebuild plan is finally close to fruition? Despite Knox’s impressive scoring output, it’s worth noting that he took 19 shots a game (the league leader by a wide margin) and shot just 35% overall. While the scoring is probably still a net positive, it’s not quite as impactful as the ESPN highlights or PPG make it seem.
#11) Shai Gilgeous-Alexander definitely showed some good upside for a guy just outside the top 10. With 19 points/ 4 assists/ 5 rebounds per game on 46% shooting, SGA definitely surpassed Summer League expectations. Like Sexton and Knox, his NBA career will largely come down to offensive efficiency, outside shooting, and defensive growth. Shooting often improves in the NBA, and SGA certainly has the long wingspan coaches and GM’s covet.
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