So the ESPN’s and Bleacher Report’s of the world have already filled the web with obnoxiously detailed prospect breakdowns and mock drafts. Since they provide WAY too much data for the casual fan to navigate, here’s a cliff notes version to help prep you for Thursday night.
Best Offensive Player
This assessment is based on four criteria: Shooting, playmaking (passing + breaking down a defense), efficiency, and versatility. The more categories they excel in, the higher they rank.
1. Trae Young (PG), Oklahoma - 6-2, 178
He’s the first player to EVER lead Division I in both scoring (27.4 ppg) and assists (8.7 apg). We’ve all seen his absurd 40-point outbursts and Curry-esque pull-up range. He’s a MUCH better finisher than Curry was entering the league (Steph took 4- 5 years to become the elite finisher he is now), and he’s an under-appreciated playmaker.
2. Luka Doncic (G), Real Madrid - 6-8, 228
Doncic is arguably the best passer in the draft and combines elite court vision with size, range, and a very good step-back jumper. His shot selection isn't always ideal and he played against superior competition, both of which contributed to his alarmingly low three-point percentage.
3. Marvin Bagley III (F/C), Duke - 6-11, 234
Bagley is a super-efficient bucket-getter that has All-Star potential if his 3-point shot translates to the NBA. He's great on lobs, active on the boards, and a very good finisher in the post.
4. Michael Porter, Jr. (F), Missouri - 6-11, 211
Porter has an unreal amount of hype for a guy who only played three games at Missouri and averaged just 10 points. BUT -- EVERY scout who has watched him says he is an elite shooter than can create his own shot and make it rain from anywhere on the floor.
5. Deandre Ayton - (C) Arizona - 7-0, 243
Ayton looks like he’s carved out of granite and runs the floor like a guy at least 30 pound lighter. He’s great on lobs, a load under the basket, and has a surprisingly good touch all the way out to the three-point line.
Best Defensive Players
1. Jaren Jackson, Jr.
Jackson has legitimate “Defensive Player of the Year” potential. He has an insane block rate and has shown the ability to switch and absolutely smother wing players and block shots with both hands.
2. Kyri Thomas (G), Creighton - 6-4, 199 (6-10 wingspan)
Thomas is a two-time Big East Defensive Player of the Year -- an award that usually goes to big men. He combines superb athleticism with good technique, aggression, and a high motor. It doesn’t hurt that he also shot 41% from the arc.
3. Mikal Bridges (SF), Villanova - 6-7, 210
The prototypical super-switchable NBA wing. Bridges made himself a lot of money with a stellar junior year and a great showing in Villanova's national title run. He's a future lock-down defender that’s also a dead-eye three-point shooter: 17.6 PPG, 43.5 3-pt %
4. De’Anthony Melton (G), USC - 6-3, 193
Melton is an elite on-the-ball defender that also gets a lot of deflections, steals, and hustle rebounds. He’s super-limited on offense, and the common comparison for his game is Marcus Smart.
5. Zhaire Smith (G/F), Texas Tech - 6-4, 199
Widely considered to be the best athlete in the draft; He’s a physical freak that guarded 1-4 in college and should be a hellacious wing defender in the NBA.
Top “Upside Players”
These are potential top-20 picks that aren’t NBA-ready right now, but have either the height, hops, or length to make scouts think they’ll turn into something. They’re described with phrases such as “long,” “athletic,” “defensive potential,” and “offensive upside.” That’s scouting lingo for saying, “This dude is deficient in either shooting/passing/dribbling, but we’re hoping he develops an offensive game so he can actually become good.” If they DO develop, you get get Victor Oladipo, Jaylen Brown, or Aaron Gordon. If not, you get Willie Cauley-Stein, Justice Winslow, and Kris Dunn.
This year’s top “upside players”
Zhaire Smith (G/F), Texas Tech
Mohamed Bamba (C), Texas
Kevin Knox (F), Kentucky
Lonnie Walker IV (G), Miami
Robert Williams (PF), Texas A&M
Best Overall Players
1. Luka Doncic
He’s the most NBA-ready and had unprecedented success in the second best league on the planet (youngest Euro League MVP ever). He is likely the safest pick in the entire draft, and though he doesn’t have the highest ceiling in this class, he probably has the highest floor.
2. Deandre Ayton
Ayton has off-the-charts potential. He has better defensive instincts than Karl-Anthony Towns, more athleticism than Joel Embiid, and offensive versatility comparable to both. If he reaches his potential he SHOULD be the best player in this draft and an All-NBA player for years to come.
3. Marvin Bagley III
He can get buckets from anywhere and he’s an excellent rebounder. Even if he never becomes a great defender, it’s hard to overlook a guy who seems likely average 20/10 for the next 10+ years.
4. Trae Young
Don’t overthink this. He’s a sieve on defense, but his other-worldly offensive skills should more than compensate at the next level.
5. Jaren Jackson, Jr.
Jackson is a “Three and D” center who is already a high-level defender. His skill set fits with ANY team and ANY system in the NBA. Many believe his ceiling to be as high as a future All-NBA player, while his floor is probably no lower than a Myles Turner. That’s a pretty appealing proposition.
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