Let’s start with the honest truth -- the 50th season of Atlanta Hawks basketball is going to be a long one. They’re led by a rookie head coach and their roster is full of unproven youngsters, journeyman veterans, and career G-leaguers. The future is bright for the Hawks...but the future ISN’T now.
We’ve already taken an in-depth look at the Hawks 2018 Draft, but what does the rest of the roster look like following the Dennis Schroder trade?
Roster & Rotation
Here is Atlanta’s 2018 roster:
NBA rosters have traditionally capped at 15 players, but the rosters expanded last year to allow two additional “two-way” spots. The two-way system lets players compete for their team’s Gatorade League (formerly "Developmental League") affiliate while also spending up to 45 days with the big league team. The Hawks signed Jaylen Adams and Alex Poythress to split time between the main roster and their G-League affiliate the Erie Bayhawks. Adams isn’t likely to get much run on the main roster, but Poythress could see heavy rotational minutes at power forward until Dewayne Dedmon returns from injury.
Once at full strength this will be Atlanta's starting five:
Center - Dewayne Dedmon
Power Forward - John Collins
Small Forward - Taurean Prince
Shooting Guard - Kent Bazemore
Point Guard - Trae Young
The starting line-up is set in stone, so the real intrigue centers around who earns the bulk of the second-team minutes.The Hawks probable second unit:
Center - Alex Len
Power Forward - Alex Poythress/Vince Carter
Small Forward - DeAndre Bembry/Justin Anderson
Shooting Guard - Tyler Dorsey/Kevin Huerter
Point Guard - Jeremy Lin
Yes, you read that correctly...Vince Carter will play the four. Carter was never an elite defender, but at 41 years old he has LONG since lost the foot speed to provide any sort of defensive resistance on the wing. He’s still valuable because of his shooting, experience, and scoring savvy, but his best fit at this point in his career is as a small-ball stretch four.
You'll notice Omari Spellman missing from the initial rotational projection. Spellman has struggled with his shot (his primary NBA-ready skill), doesn't provide much rim protection, and has looked shaky at best when forced to defend on the perimeter. He's too slow to defend athletic fours, and a tad short to be a five, but he will likely log rotational minutes at center once Alex Poythress begins to approach his 45-day threshold. That leaves Vince Carter and possibly even Taurean Prince picking up some of his minutes as small-ball power forwards. Expect Kevin Huerter to compete with Tyler Dorsey for the role of bench gunner. The two share the same skill set -- they shoot (often TOO much in Dorsey's case) -- but Huerter has superior passing instincts and is better off-the-ball while Dorsey is a better defender and a surprisingly good rebounder. Justin Anderson will eventually return and likely knock one of these two out of the rotation, but early in the season Coach Pierce will likely to go with the hot hand in the same way he did this preseason.
Who/What to Watch For
“Lensanity?” -- Alex Len had a surprisingly impressive preseason with solid defense, and above average rebounding while showing surprising offensive contributions as a roll man off picks with an occasional three even thrown in. Could the 25-year old FINALLY be approaching the potential he showed as a top-five pick out of Maryland?
Jeremy Lin’s Health - Lin looked like the Jeremy Lin of old (Brooklyn, not New York) in the Hawks’ preseason finale. He was quick, decisive with the ball, and showed no signs of someone returning from catastrophic knee surgery. If he’s playing at his highest level the Hawks have one of the better back-up point guards in the league as an insurance policy against the ups and down Trae Young is guaranteed to have.
John Collins -“John the Baptist” is primed for a breakout sophomore season. In Summer League he showcased a smooth-looking three ball to go with his exceptional interior scoring instincts and freakish athleticism.
I’ve always felt that Collins’ game is Blake Griffin-lite and what he lacks in Griffin’s passing and ball handling he makes up for with a shooting touch far ahead of where Griffin was at year two. Is 19 points & 8 rebounds too much to hope for?
The Hawks Scoring - The Hawks played at a BREAKNECK speed in the preseason, averaging a pace of 113.2 through their first three games. That pace would blow away last years speed-of-play (98.9) which was the eight-fastest pace in the NBA and the fastest of the Mike Budenholzer era. This team is going to get up a lot of shots and score a lot of points.
Trigga’ Trae - Trae Young is NOT Steph Curry 2.0. There IS NO Steph Curry 2.0. Young is unlikely to ever match Curry’s balance of scoring volume and efficiency, and his prospects of becoming an elite point guard largely hinge on honing his other-worldly passing ability and improving his below-average defense.
Watch enough Trae Young and you’ll see a strong resemblance to a different elite point guard -- Steve Nash. Young himself said that’s who he models his game after, but while he posses Nash-esque vision and passing instincts, he has a long way to go in his shot selection and ability to finish at the rim. The mostly likely outcome is that Young struggles to score consistently this year but becomes one of the best-passing rookies we’ve seen in a long time. Unfortunately, the same might end up being said about Luca Doncic -- they guy Atlanta traded away to get Young.
Return of the Highlight Factory - The Hawks may not win many games this year but between Trae Young’s jaw-dropping dimes & awe (or possibly groan) inspiring three-point shooting, Coach Pierce’s fast-paced offense, and John Collins continuing to dunk on everything that moves, the Hawks will be nothing this year if not entertaining.
Predictions for the Season
1. The Hawks will be bad on defense...like really bad. With Collins and Young in the starting lineup, the Hawks are giving significant minutes to two very shaky defenders with back-ups like Vince Carter and Jeremy Lin unlikely to provide much of an improvement. They should be solid on the wings with Prince/Bembry/Bazemore/Anderson but the personnel combined with their rapid pace of play means this team is going to give up a LOT of points.
2. Trae Young Stat Line - 12.6 points/ 7.2 Assists/ 39.8% FG/ 37.3% 3-pt/ 86% FT
3. John Collins Stat Line - 18.8 points/ 8.7 rebounds/ 51.3% FG/ 36% 3-pt
4. Taurean Prince Stat Line - 16.1 points/ 5.8 rebounds/ 44.2% FG/ 39.7% 3-pt
Hawks Record: 29-53
ESPN has Atlanta projected to match last year’s 24 wins, but the Hawks’ 24-win 2018 campaign was fueled by a slew of early injuries and a midseason roster turnover. The former can’t be predicted, but the latter seems unlikely, and this roster has superior backcourt and wing depth when compared to the revolving door of G-League players the Hawks kept trotting out to back-up Dennis Schroder, Dewayne Dedmon, & John Collins. The depth and the Hawks uptempo offense should be worth at least five additional wins this year...and hopefully a lot of highlights.